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I’ll Have Another. Creative Cause. Union Rags. Gemologist. Bodemeister. Paynter. A three-year-old from current meet leader/last year’s winning trainer Todd Pletcher’s barn. All are missing from the fray of the Mid-Summer Derby, the Travers Stakes (I). As one of my favorite races, the Travers is famous for determining the year’s best three-year-old aside from the trying Triple Crown trail, with past winners reading like a who’s who of Thoroughbred greats: Man o’ War, Holy Bull, Buckpasser, Damascus, Alydar, and others dating back to the late 1800s. It’s an old race, it’s a great race… just not this year.

With Paynter and Hansen both out of the running, the race became difficult to gauge and I took a lot of time flip-flopping between horses. I used virtually every factor in trying to determine a top three— pace scenario likelihoods, speed figures, transition to fast from slop for many, you name it— but it really boiled down to this: being a G1, it takes a very good horse to win it with the right strategy and the best form. Easier said than done of course, and with the weather looking good, I hope recent prep winners like it fast just as well as they liked the mud!

$1 million Travers Stakes (I) - 3-Year-Olds. 1 1/4 miles on dirt at Saratoga Race Course. Post Time: Saturday August 25 at 5:46pm EST.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Speightscity - Irad Ortiz Jr., Gary Contessa - A totally curious entry, we haven’t seen Speightscity since the Speightstown ridgeling was second to Alpha in the Withers (III), where he apparently banged up his knee. A winner of no stakes, he’s a $20k supplement to the race where he is set to go straight to the lead, as announced loudly by trainer Contessa. His works have been very good reaching long at Saratoga, but with such a long layoff and no serious past credit, a win in a G1 seems very farfetched.

2) Five Sixteen - Rosie Napravnik, Dominick Schettino - The Invasor [ARG] gelding surprised many running a good second to Street Life in the sloppy Curlin Stakes here at Saratoga, ultimately retaining Napravnik’s commitment with soft underdog status. Napravnik hasn’t been that sharp at the Saratoga meet overall, and I honestly am beginning to think Five Sixteen might be a slop horse instead of one that is bound to improve.

3) Golden Ticket - David Cohen, Ken McPeek - Haven’t seen this one in a while! The Speightstown colt hasn’t won a stakes yet, but was last seen as a gallant runner-up to Prospective in the Tampa Bay Derby (II). His works have been awesome at Saratoga, but the layoff’s going to hurt him and his unimpressive speed figures. I also wonder if this is McPeek’s second Belmont Stakes-like attempt, where he put a fast horse in a race along with closer Atigun. HMMM…

4) Stealcase - Shaun Bridgmohan, Mark Casse - I haven’t really liked this Lawyer Ron colt since he ran a disappointing 6th in the Gotham (III). He’s had a lot of shoddy luck, and subsequently has no stakes wins to his credit. He was a distant runner-up to Neck ‘N Neck in the Matt Winn (III) and closed nice for a distant third in the Haskell (I) last out after hitting the gate at the start. He’s improving with good works at Saratoga, but may not be good enough to consider for the upset.

5) Street Life - Jose Lezcano, Chad Brown - A face I’ve loved since watching his awesome Broad Brush Stakes win, the Street Sense colt has 3 wins in 7 starts this year and has been a good runner even in his failed attempts. He was far off the others to rally for 4th in the Belmont, and could have won the Peter Pan (II) in my opinion if he hadn’t gotten an outside post. He won the Curlin Stakes pretty easy last time out with a tweaked strategy that could work again here, but could very well suffer without pace.

6) Alpha - Ramon Dominguez, Kieran McLaughlin - The Bernardini colt is arguably the most accomplished in the field: the easy winner of the Jim Dandy (II) last out and has no bad races to speak of while in New York (2-for-2 at Saratoga) while maintaining good speed figures. He seeks to repeat his sire’s and brother Stay Thirsty’s Jim Dandy-Travers double. Alpha is a good and sensible choice for favoritism, but I must question his credentials. His win in the sloppy Jim Dandy was easy and unopposed, and he has had a controversially easy spring campaign dodging horses like Hansen to collect his wins. He had no response for the Derby and lost (albeit gracefully) to a drawing-away Gemologist in the Wood (I). He could win this race among simpleton company, but either way he has some class questions.

7) Atigun - Mike Smith, Ken McPeek - The Istan colt is a beloved favorite of mine, pegging me to win the Rebel Stakes (II) earlier this spring. While he hasn’t won anything to speak of, he is the probably the most capable horse in the field for trying the distance as he was a gaining 3rd in the Belmont (I) behind two top class horses. He was inappropriately choked back in the Jim Dandy, and gets an upgrade to great closing rider Mike Smith with super works done at Saratoga. Don’t leave him out.

8) Neck ‘N Neck - Leandro Goncalves, Ian Wilkes - A really nice Flower Alley colt, he had a dominating victory in the Matt Winn (III) before digging hopelessly into the mud to stay second to Alpha in the Jim Dandy last out. His works have been great at Saratoga, and with a faster track, he should be game for another go at Alpha.

9) Liaison - Rafael Bejarano, Bob Baffert - Never really liked this Indian Charlie colt, who is the lone G1 winner in the field with a CashCall Futurity (I) win as a two-year-old. His best efforts have been out west on synthetic, hitting the board in all his recent graded efforts before going 5 paths wide to get third in the Jim Dandy. A horse with some go left in him, he’s got some credence, but I have to wonder if he’s taking the ship from Cali well. For a Baffert trainee, he doesn’t give me that wink of confidence I’m so accustomed to.

10) Nonios - John Velazquez, Jerry Hollendorfer - One of my new favorites is this Pleasantly Perfect colt, who is just as handsome as the day is long. A super winner closing on synthetic, he has yet to finish off the board this year and has shown he doesn’t need speed to win. While he was distant from Paynter, he closed well in his first dirt try in the Haskell (I) to stay clear of the others, and picks up super rider Velazquez.

11) Fast Falcon - Junior Alvarado, Nick Zito - The game rival to Teeth of the Dog is this Awesome Again son who closed like a freight train to place in the Dwyer (II). His form took a dive when he was responseless running last in the Jim Dandy (II). Working well enough at Saratoga, Zito’s latest try at the Travers looks a wee bit tired.

Top Picks in Order:

1) Street Life

2) Alpha

3) Atigun

I was able to chop this field right in half separating the good ones with a chance from those just having a hopeful hurrah, but from there things got tough. Liaison looks like he misses home, so he was out. Neck ‘N Neck had no answer for Alpha’s spiked speed in the stretch, so he’s probably going to be a reach for the price. Alpha I dislike but have to consider… Nonios is awesome… Street Life’s strategy could be right… but Atigun is capable with that Golden Ticket helping him out… WHO DO I PICK? Ultimately I stayed with Street Life, who has a strategy that can work again here and he’s been a beastly closing machine. I think Alpha will stay in the mix, and Atigun will make a case for the upset. I’m broken-hearted to leave out Nonios, but have to consider his only dirt start was in a super light field as good as the horse was that beat him. I’ll box all four somewhere together.

Value Pick: Atigun

Between January and today, we lost a ton of star power in the three-year-old dirt router division, the most prominent miss being Triple Crown leg winners I’ll Have Another and Union Rags, who suffered a suspensory injury and is now out for the year along with Went the Day Well, who has some ankle issues— all three would have likely been included in the top 5 otherwise. In devising the summer’s must-watch list, I had to leave out so many, blocking out any contenders who have not had a recorded work within the past 60 days.

Unfortunately, I am forced to leave out this year’s many excellent turf runners in favor of dirt routers in determining the best candidates to rack up points towards a big Eclipse prize.

10) Gemologist - I was going to leave this one out, but he’s been throwing bullets lately and it’s hard to knock a colt who was undefeated most of his career. However, he has a lot of questions hovering over him now that the fields are getting stronger than what he’s faced in the past, and it doesn’t help that trainer Todd Pletcher is in a slouch. Next move: Jim Dandy (II) or Haskell (I)

9) Neck ‘N Neck - The connections loved him despite his hard luck early on the Triple Crown trail, and he really blossomed when winning the Matt Winn (III) by a whopping 7 lengths. If he can continue to mature, I think we’ll see another special Flower Alley colt this year… Next move: Jim Dandy (II)

8) Alpha - Nearly left this guy off the list despite ranking him in my top three juvenile colts last year. By the looks of his three-year-old year, he has gotten over his gate quirks and has matured mentally quite a good deal. He dueled with Gemologist bravely in the Wood Memorial (I) before enduring a fuzzy trip in the Kentucky Derby. Issue-laced, I still feel it’s more possible for a Bernardini to blossom during the summertime (Stay Thirsty did as well as the sire himself!). Next move: Jim Dandy (II)

7) Prospective - A promising winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (II), I thought the colt had a good mind and a determined drive during the Triple Crown season, making him a live longshot for the Kentucky Derby. He didn’t do as well as I hoped, but made a nice run in the shrunken Ohio Derby (III) last out to show he still has what it takes. Next move: Haskell (I)

6) Blueskiesnrainbows - An English Channel who is actually good on dirt, the chestnut Baffert trainee made an amazing impression running third in the Santa Anita Derby (I), passed only toward the end by I’ll Have Another and Creative Cause. He won the Swaps Stakes (II), and while he was largely unchallenged in that race setting the pace, he’s another Baffert horse to watch as the distances grow. Next move: Nominated to Jim Dandy (II) as a possible

5) Street Life - The Street Sense colt has been an excellent runner all season, winning a few in New York and last finished a belated fourth in the Belmont Stakes (I). He should especially be watched because of all the speed present in this three-year-old crop, setting up quite perfectly for his closing move. Next move: Curlin Stakes

4) Hansen - A dynamite two-year-old, the Tapit phenom has had a very rocky three-year-old season thus far, sailing smooth to win the Gotham (III) but facing some questionable moves in the Kentucky Derby when strangled back to 10th and a rank 2nd to Algorithms in the Holy Bull (III). However, Hansen is still a classy horse, and should Mike Maker send the colt to the front, he’ll put up a serious fight to stay there. His Iowa Derby (III) prep looked real nice as well, automatically putting him at the head of the list of horses bound for the Travers. Next move: Likely West Virginia Derby (II)

3) Paynter - This horse has just been getting better and better with each start, much like his stablemate Bodemeister. I originally didn’t like him all that much even early on (I was an original Bode supporter of the Zayat string), but the way he constantly performs well despite getting the most bizarre things thrown at him— maiden, then a big G1, then shipping into mud, then 12 furlongs?! He still has some questions to answer, but looks like a horse who will get better as the months wear on. Next move: Haskell (I)

2) Teeth of the Dog - Michael Matz’s second-string to Union Rags may be pulling a Stay Thirsty this year by grabbing his ousted stablemates intended accolades instead. He showed tenacity while winning the Dwyer (II) and really hasn’t been out of the heat of the fight since the start of the year while finishing an improving third behind Gemologist and Alpha in the Wood Memorial (I). I’m waiting for this one to get better and better. Next move: Jim Dandy (II)

1) Bodemeister - The Empire Maker colt boasted huge figures winning the Arkansas Derby (I) and impressed more than the winner in the Kentucky Derby (I). I’m dismissing the Preakness (I) runner-up performance because of a boggy rail, and while my biggest concern will be post-fever fitness (the reason he is out of the Haskell), I have few doubts Bode won’t be able to handle the crowd. He isn’t a “need the lead” type, and with his pedigree, ought to do well. If a horse can outspeed Trinniberg and hold on to almost wire a classic with such little prep… I’m excited. Next move: Unknown prep for Travers

It would be awesome to see O’Prado Again, Algorithms, and or Fire on Ice come back in time, however unlikely that may be…

He may not have won the Derby or the Preakness (and some of you would say that he never would have and was soundly beaten by I’ll Have Another), but Bodemeister would have been the horse to beat in the Haskell Invitational (I), had he not been stricken with illness. Belmont winner Union Rags, a likely candidate to close into Bode’s fantastic fractions, is also out due to a suspensory injury.

Who does that leave in what will be a rather unexciting Haskell?

Hansen, who has a lot of work to do in redeeming himself as a top three-year-old fallen from grace, is now 60-70% likely to enter the Haskell, with priority originally given to the lighter West Virginia Derby (II). Trainer Mike Maker has commented that the colt has matured quite a bit from his rank prep days leading up to the Derby, where he finished an unimpressive 10th. He is certainly ready for a big race following his public workout in the Iowa Derby (III), which he won by an easy 10 lengths.

Zayat Stables is also listing Bodemeister’s talented stablemate as a possible for the race. Paynter nearly wired the Belmont Stakes (I) and has been an impeccable horse from the get-go. Dare I say, he is more mentally capable than Hansen, and can probably beat the Great White Hope should he elect to sit off the pace.

Throwing in a third option and a name I have brought up many times before as someone I like: Street Life. I can’t help but think Street Sense is a good enough sire to get a G1 with one of his progeny this year, and Street Life might just be up to the task. Starting from the rail in the Belmont, he got off to a bad start and was too far behind the field to do better than a modest fourth. He nearly snuffed out Mark Valeski in the Peter Pan (II) before that, and had he not been on the far outside, I think he would have won that race. Obviously, things have to go right for him, but the pace has the possibility of working in his favor.

There’s little to dissuade me from siding with Bodemeister as the potential winner and very possible best three-year-old of 2012. For how lightly raced he is, he has sure done a lot to impress us and often times, good three-year-olds can become great three-year-olds come summertime. We saw it happen with Stay Thirsty as well as Coil just to name two non-classic winners who won prestigious summer stakes races. Now that Bode will be skipping the Haskell, it’s just a question of how and when he’ll get that one prep before the Travers.