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The male handicap division has been deep this year, but this will mark the first occasion that the unstoppable Wise Dan meets Alternation, who has been building up a pile of wins this year as a four-year-old seeking his first G1 pass. However, neither will have an easy task: 6 other worthy hopefuls aim to upset, and there’s plenty of potential for that in the Downs. I picked last year’s winner, Pool Play, at fantastic 34-1 odds!

Successful Dan has been counted out of the lineup as replacement for Wise Dan in the unlikely event he should scratch. Forecast looks hot and sunny.

$400,000 Stephen Foster Handicap (I) - 3-Year-Olds & Up. 1 1/8 miles on dirt at Churchill Downs. Post Time: Saturday, June 16 at 9:39pm EST.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Nates Mineshaft - Jesse Campbell, 118 lbs, Austin Smith - The Mineshaft son caught fire this year back-to-back graded stakes, but followed that with a disappointing 6th at Churchill in the Alysheba (II) while being held back. He won the Lone Star Handicap (II) last out by 7 1/4 lengths and is in fighting trim as the likely pacesetter. His one and only Churchill start— and on the rail— did not offer him a smooth trip, and this front runner will need a super fast track and lots of luck. His last work over the main wasn’t that great.

2) Fort Larned - Julien Leparoux, 117 lbs, Ian Wilkes - The E Dubai colt has yet to gain much respect, reeling off a clear, record-breaking win in the Skip Away Stakes (III) at 1 3/16 miles followed by a runner-up finish in the Alysheba (II). 5-furlong breezes have remained consistent, and he deserves a look as a skilled pacestalker.

3) Wise Dan - John Velazquez, 123 lbs, Charles Lopresti - The Wiseman’s Ferry gelding can do it all: turf, dirt, synthetic and in winning fashion. He has won his past 3 graded stakes by a combined 18 lengths and has flattened plenty of excellent horses along the way. Lopresti has Wise Dan wound up nicely for this effort, and I expect to see something wonderful from him.

4) Nehro - Corey Nakatani, 116 lbs, Steve Asmussen - The Zayat-owned Mineshaft colt has been pushing hard for his first stakes win, hitting the wire of the Pimlico Special (III) just a head bob away from it last out going 5-wide. He’s in peak condition with a 7-pound advantage over Wise Dan and 6 from Alternation. A fast pace will help this eager closer.

5) Ron the Greek - Jose Lezcano, 119 lbs, Bill Mott - The Full Mandate son already has a G1 to his credit this year in a very strangely-run Santa Anita Handicap (I), and other than Wise Dan, is the lone G1 winner in this field. A gradual closer with no Churchill experience, but with the track leading Mott in charge, he’ll benefit from the reduced weight but has a lot of question marks hanging over how good his form really is.

6) Rogue Romance - Manoel Cruz, 115 lbs, Ken McPeek - The Smarty Jones colt stopped running to finish dead-last in Wise Dan’s eye-popping Ben Ali (III) score, but has a good history at Churchill Downs. He is fresh off a confidence boosting allowance score at Churchill, winning by 5 to dismiss any fitness doubts. The G3 winner lacks the credentials to pose as a sound bet for this race, but put him on the up-and-up list.

7) Mission Impazible - Javier Castellano, 116 lbs, Todd Pletcher - “Happy-go-unlucky” best describes this Unbridled’s Song gelding, who finished a wide, eased 4th last out in the Pimlico Special and sports mostly board finishes in a millionaire career. He finished second in last year’s Stephen Foster as well as this past Clark Handicap to Wise Dan. He makes excellent efforts in top company, but of course doesn’t like to win too often. I don’t see much here that shows a potential breakthrough.

8) Alternation - Luis Quinonez, 122 lbs, Donnie Von Hemel - The Distorted Humor son has been cooking since turning 4, reeling off 4 wins in 4 starts with 3 of those wins being graded. He appears to be a fan of running towards the front end of things, but may have his work cut out for him this time with second-highest weight and a deeper field. He was all-out to win the Pimlico Special, and honestly looks a bit dulled lately.

Top Picks in Order:

1) Wise Dan

2) Nates Mineshaft

3) Nehro

4) Fort Larned

A very tough race to handicap. Wise Dan shows no sign of slowing down and is the best horse of the group. Versatile Nates Mineshaft excels out on the lead, which he should roll with again in this race to hold off the talented closers.

Value Pick(s): Nates Mineshaft

Coming soon now that I just thought of it and acquired some background touches: vidya handicapping all fancy-like. Guinea pig for next weekend: the Stephen Foster Handicap (I).

D. Wayne Lukas and I have at least one thing in common now after Hamazing Destiny reared up and struck him atop the head. Ouch.

Best of luck today to Yummy With Butter, who will butt-ering heads (hehe get it?) with Get Stormy and Data Link in the Monmouth Stakes (II). I think he’s a worthwhile bet, getting a whopping 7-pound break from the two favorites. Just needs a good trip is all.

Some tips for my future self and all others who want to go to another major stakes day: bring umbrella, bring warm clothes, bring cooler full of food and water, bring fold-out chair to park by the fence (get to the parking gates early of course), and leave none of them in the car. Bonus tip: if you want cheap merch, wait a little while before you buy… sketchy vendors might walk around selling duffel bags full of what you wanted at a fraction of the retail amount >.> Also, if you have catheters, insert them.

Douchebag J. Crew model-look alikes everywhere. I’ve never seen so many fucking boat shoes in my life.

Elmont, New York passed all my ghetto credentials: it has liquor stores next to “churches/congregations,” a 99 cent store every other block, and neon lighting in the windows up the wazoo. (I am referencing the Hempstead Turnpike)

So proud of Union Rags AND Atigun! Street Life was up there, as well (and what a small horse he is in real life)!

Mario Gutierrez is the cutest jockey alive, stopping to wave to all of his youngest fans in the post parades.

Everyone around me appeared to be wagering heavily on either Paynter or Unstoppable U (hahaha what? And why was he 10-1?)… all’s fair in love, war, and ponies.

I am writing the NYRA to protest a few things… mainly how the “security” guards walking the tunnel between the fence and the outer rail had no walkie talkies when we asked to have a few drunks behind us dealt with. Danger potential, much?

I don’t know if it showed up on TV/video replay, but before Winter Memories stopped gaining on Tapitsfly in the Just a Game Stakes (I), it looked like she stepped into something deep and just slightly tripped. Tapitsfly deserved the win, but I can’t help but wonder about what I saw…

The sport of kings: where aging school buses shuttle you in on one of its biggest days!

Racing would make a lot more money on stakes days if they made official phone apps for betting. I saw so many people who wanted to go back up to the windows to bet more after seeing certain horses on the track, but couldn’t because they wouldn’t make it on time or were trapped by the crowds. I would have won more money then, personally!

Zayat is the unluckiest name in horse racing. Period.

I never want to have to see a breakdown like Giant Ryan’s… or worse… again if I can help it. I also never want to have to be in front of drunken college assholes who think it’s funny to mock the horse when he’s down and helpless.

Tweet o’ the Week: Joe Talamo has a sense of humor