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(Malibu Moon x Lady Liberty, by Unbridled)

• Trainer: Shug McGaughey (Hymn Book, Easy Goer, My Flag)
• Jockey: Joel Rosario (5th last year on Creative Cause)
• Owned by: Stuart S. Janney III & Phipps Stable
• Record: 7-4-0-1
• Earnings: $921,050
• Top speed figure(s): 97 Beyer, 101 Equibase

Background: The bay colt represents the legendary Shug McGaughey’s latest (not that there has been many in recent years) attempt to capture racing’s biggest event, with decades passed since Easy Goer came within breathing distance of capturing both the Derby and the Preakness. Orb stamped himself as a solid competitor after turning three, and represents some of racing’s oldest names with McGaughey training, carrying the silks of the Janneys (Stuart Janney III’s father owned Ruffian among others), and bred by the illustrious Phipps family.

Prep Schedule: A perfect example of why waiting and seeing is often the best yardstick for measuring Derby potential; Orb was slow to understand racing but showed some grit in his two-year-old year, debuting 3rd at Saratoga in a race won by Violence after breaking slowly from the gate and trailing. After misbehaving and enduring more trouble, he broke his maiden on his 4th try at Aqueduct in December, ousting the talented Freedom Child and Revolutionary going a mile. As a three-year-old he has won three straight and all at Gulfstream including the Florida Derby (I) and the Fountain of Youth (II) preps. With two comfortable, confident-looking wins at 9 furlongs, Orb remains right on track.

Pedigree: Sire Malibu Moon— by A.P. Indy and out of a nice Mr. Prospector mare— had a very short-lived career but has spawned plenty of routers as well as sprinters in a successful stud career. Dam Lady Liberty is by Unbridled, who is quickly becoming a top broodmare sire (G1 winners Shackleford, Tapit, Dream Rush) and major influencer in the three-year-old classics (traced in Real Quiet, Victory Gallop, Empire Maker, Red Bullet, and more). Lady Liberty’s dam Mesabi Maiden won the Black Eyed Susan (lI). TrueNicks Rating: A, Variant 2.65

Running Style: Off-the-pace

Pros: Orb appears to be a safe sell all around, with McGaughey representing some of the best training outfits in the country despite not having a lot of Derby contenders. Orb appears to be peaking right on time and runs well within himself to extend to 10 furlongs.

Cons: Regular rider Johnny V breaks up with Orb in favor of the brilliantly fast Verrazano, which may give that horse a tactical advantage over Orb. Orb also favors an off-the-pace running style, which a lot of other horses are looking to get which could lead to cramped conditions. Also worth noting: filly Dreaming of Julia scampered 9 furlongs in 1:48.97 while Orb took 1:50.87— about a 10-length difference.

Final Word: Likely to be the second favorite to Verrazano in the betting, Orb should have a place in everyone’s top 5 picks, doing little wrong since the start of the year with room to grow after defeating several worthy horses on the trail already. He has talent, the right connections, and above all, the right fitness and mentality to get the job done.

After weeks of trying to beat a lot of Pletchers and other top favorites and getting really weird results, it’s only natural that I start questioning my own methods once again. I liked Revolutionary from the word go, but barred myself from liking Orb too much originally because I liked Revolutionary and Violence already and good gosh, why would I like 3 horses all with cool names?! Orb got the boot, I guess, because he was a Malibu Moon. Malibu Moons are good or not good, and it’s hard to find one that is good for very long. I’ve been on the McGaughey-Phipps double bandwagon since Hymn Book won the Donn (I) for me though, so he does have some street cred.

Malibu Moon is a good-looking guy by the undisputed legend A.P. Indy and out of a pretty nice Mr. Prospector mare. He reminds me of Pulpit in many ways, though I found Pulpit to be more likeable, namely because he actually did something on the track before going to stud. Malibu Moon raced twice, breaking his maiden on his second try running 5 furlongs. Appropriately, he is known for passing on precocious ability, as seen with Declan’s Moon (G1 Hollywood Futurity winner & graded sprinter), Kauai Katie (very fast, precocious 3-year-old apt to stick to sprints), Devil May Care (precocious gal who broke the mold, winning the 9-furlong Coaching Club), Prospective (winner of the 1 1/16 mile Tampa Bay Derby), Eden’s Moon (G1 Las Virgenes winner), and Ask the Moon (back-to-back G1 winner at routes).

His dam side is actually what makes him the most likable to me, out of Lady Liberty, a daughter of classic winner Unbridled, whose Fappiano lineage has been on fire in the winner’s circle. Lady Liberty ran in some nice graded events without doing much, though her dam Mesabi Maiden (by Cox’s Ridge) was a winner of the Black-Eyed Susan (II) at 9 furlongs. With all this in mind, Claiborne is looking pretty crafty: did they mix Malibu Moon’s tendency to pass on speed and early ability (on a classic backdrop of A.P. Indy/Mr. Prospector) with a mare capable of going far?

Conformation-wise, Orb is not as impressive as other horses on the trail. In fact, he reminds me of Prospective a bit. There is nothing overly “wow” about Orb just from looking at a picture, but if you watched the Florida Derby post parade I’m sure you noticed his attitude. What makes Orb a convincing sell is his attitude. Happy horses win races, and that is part of what I personally hunt for when “paddock picking.” Orb even has his ears forward in the above image winning the Florida Derby.

I wrote this piece partly to chew apart the growing “real contender” list and to really get down and inspect Orb after his final prep race. I wrote before the Florida Derby that he had no excuse to lose it with Merit Man and Shanghai Bobby apt to give the race some pace, and he showed an all-new dimension by running swiftly at the end despite some pretty pokey fractions. The win streak he has going at Gulfstream doesn’t really concern me as to whether or not he can transfer that to Churchill, and in fact I don’t credit it towards Gulfstream, which naturally favors up-front runners anyway. I think Orb is a horse that needed time to “get it” and now that he does, he’s just learning more as he goes along. And with that said, Orb earns a place above many others on my Derby list.