A day after I declared “I’m freaking tired and I need to do some schoolwork before I bomb my classes” hiatus, the NYRA was nice enough to send me some pony goodies. Words cannot describe how hyped I am for the Belmont Stakes and then of course, the Saratoga meet. Summer was already my favorite season, but ponies always make it better. The calendar magnet is affixed to my fridge, the pen now has a home in my camera bag, and I’ll probably stick little Vyjack to my bag too. Thanks NYRA!
Paynter
When I saw that it was raining in Florida, any temptation I had of entering into the Pick 4 was null. Wet grass and a sloppy going on the main can really mess with your picks when they are made with fast and firm surfaces in mind. But, at least Ron the Greek did win the Sunshine Millions Classic like I wanted. I considered Sprint winner Off the Jak a mild threat, with my second and third choices coming in right behind him. The Turf was of course off with the yielding grass, but I was glad to see Teaks North get the win as I’ve liked him in the past. As I’ve mentioned in past Weekend Stake Tips, the best horse on a yielding course is an able pacesetter; Teaks North wired this race while runner-up Doubles Partner struggled with the soft going to gain on him. The maiden claimer went to a decent horse Milwaukee Brew with most of my picks doing poorly.
I didn’t publish my Lecomte choices due to lack of time (thanks to newly-begun spring semester), but I favored the winner Oxbow, who was my #10 choice on my Derby Top Ten article, although favored Avie’s Quality got a bad trip. I also liked runner-up Golden Soul mainly because of his pedigree (by Perfect Soul [IRE], who I think combines the best of Europe and America together), and I’ll keep him on my watch list down the road. Oxbow won the 1 mile and 70 yard prep by a whopping 11 1/4 lengths in a wire-to-wire romp, looking like a top steed just like his full brother Paynter. D. Wayne Lukas is back… or is it too soon to say it? Lest we forget the long list of Lecomte winners who didn’t do a damn thing in the big Derby. The track at Fair Grounds was fast for the race, now let’s see Oxbow get some Derby points!
Heading into the Derby Handicap Contest later this week with the exciting Holy Bull Stakes (III), I want to just touch upon a few points I learned last year, which was my first year of really investigating all the prep races. It will be easier this year with the Derby points system (though not necessarily a fair process), and I hope to embellish upon a few good pointers as we continue down Derby road.
1) Don’t fall in love with anyone too early - Horses like Sky Kingdom didn’t fare too well and disappeared early on and possibly blinded me from potentially good horses.
2) History is made to be rewritten - Yes, we’ve been without a Derby winner that never ran as a two-year-old for quite some time, but as you can see, Bodemeister nearly did it and ran off with some incredible performances. I wouldn’t use the history angle ever.
3) Talent vs. experience - The two big factors in determining the ability of a three-year-old, particularly through mid-March. One matters more than the other, but be wary to not give one more importance than the other. A horse needs talent to win big races, but experience is indispensable.
4) THROW OUT THE TWO-YEAR-OLD YEAR - It doesn’t mean diddly outside of getting the horse some experience. If you were a good student in high school, does that mean you will be a good college student? Nope. Same thing applies to racehorses.
5) Losses can mean nothing - In my book, a horse needs to learn about losing, which is why I dislike undefeated horses that dodge challenging fields that would actually test them (Alpha, Gemologist). A loss can also indicate a horse’s strengths and weaknesses from a trainer’s perspective and allow for a better strategy next time. Additionally, if a horse loses because of a poor trip— by how much did he lose and how did the horse react? Did it give up in the stretch or did it try to finish fast? Look at these losing races hard.
6) Speed ability - The Derby is a long race, but the winner needs to have some potential to turn foot quickly when asked so the opponents they pass will have little to no time to react if they’re able to. I’ll Have Another had great speed he was taught to carry over a good distance in his workouts, as did many of the top finishers from last year.
7) Staying power - Now that I mentioned speed, a horse needs to also be able to stay running those extra furlongs. The addition of one furlong makes more of a difference than you think, with many horses who romped at 8 or 9 furlongs failing when stretched any further.
8) Pedigree matters - The ancestry of a horse comes to view in the stretch of the Derby. Breeders say it’s 50-50 between the sire and the dam, others say it’s 60% the mare that matters. Either way, look at both parents. At least one of them should hint at 10 furlongs— and no, I don’t think a win at 9 furlongs cuts it, it must be 10. With so many breeders concentrating on early talent and speed, I am quick to dismiss a lot of horses after a certain point with sprinter sires or who do not have bloodlines that spawn distance-getters… I’m looking at YOU, Indian Charlie.
9) Track conditions - Not all poly is created equal, and not all dirt is the same. A horse that raced in New York’s deep furrows may or may not be better equipped on a souped-up surface at Gulfstream. A horse that wins on dry, fast goings will likely struggle in mud. Even the shape of a track can matter. I’d like to discuss this further, but it’s a point that needs reminding.
10) Equipment changes - Usually noted in the entry book, these can be things like blinkers, Lasix, and the ultimate “equipment change”— the gelding of a colt. Whether or not these things actually will help the horse are up to your judgment, but they’re important to note in many cases.
Continued from the #20-11 best races post, it’s time to hammer out the ten most awesome and memorable races from 2012! Again, a lot of my choices are North American, so you Euro fans and the like take it easy on me!
Honorable mention: I believe I miscounted the number of races I had before… I really meant to include Mizdirection’s Turf Sprint here in the middle of the countdown. Ugh! I knew I was bad at math but this is very erroneous… sorry Miz!
10) Union Rags sneaks by Paynter to win Belmont (I) - My most personal race from 2012 being that I was there for it, whether you cared for the race or not it was still one not to miss. Hot improver Paynter looked like the first horse in some time that could win the Test of the Champion wire-to-wire until Union Rags managed to find a path through on the inside just as time ran out. Watch it here
9) Questing all shock and awe in Alabama (I) performance - I was kind of heart-broken to have missed this race in person (it was between this weekend and the Whitney weekend I had to go to Saratoga), but all in all, it was still a jaw-dropping display of raw ability watching Questing set Secretariat-like fractions in a wire-to-wire romp in the Alabama (I) against top-class fillies! Watch it here
8) Shackleford deflects Caleb’s Posse to win stunning Met Mile (I) - I didn’t have him to win despite feeling that he could win this race last year after his Preakness victory, all because I thought he was in bad form. Shack Attack proved me wrong and his fan base was jubilant as he kept right on going in a rousing renewal of his rivalry with Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (I) champion Caleb’s Posse. Watch it here
7) My Miss Aurelia ousts Questing in Cotillion (I) match race - Despite boasting a four horse field, it was really a match race between undefeated Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (I) winner My Miss Aurelia and the rising star Questing, each well-handicapped against each other to make things an interesting race. Each filly gave it her best and it was quite the million-dollar race. Watch it here
6) Royal Delta digs in, gives away weight, and still prevails in gutsy Delaware Handicap (II) - We all knew she was something special, but a fast horse is nothing without a big heart. Royal Delta gave away 3 to 10 pounds to all of her foes, including a whopping 9 to recent Azeri (III) winner Tiz Miz Sue who challenged her in the stretch when she already appeared to be going all out. Watch it here
5) Wise Dan conquers international field, holds off Animal Kingdom in Breeders’ Cup Mile (I) - A vulnerable favorite, Wise Dan capped off an impeccable year as a do-it-all gelding with a win in the seriously competitive Breeders’ Cup Mile against shippers of colossal class. He skirted away to the lead in the stretch as easily as he did in past starts while managing to hold off Animal Kingdom who came sweeping in late. Watch it here
4) I’ll Have Another catches Bodemeister in dramatic Kentucky Derby (I) - A curious race from its rocky start, Bodemeister unexpectedly outran predicted pacesetter Trinniberg early and looked prime to wire the Derby in an outstanding display of might, only to tire and be caught late by the heroic I’ll Have Another. Watch it here
3) Orfevre caught by Solemia in upsetting Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (FR-I) - While it appeared that Japan’s Triple Crown winner was going to revel in the one of the world’s most prestigious races, it was Solemia who stormed in late and out of the clouds to upset the good Orfevre in the waning moments of the Arc. Watch it here
2) Frankel bows a perfect winner in Champion Stakes (ENG-I) - A timeless, unforgettable sort of horse, the fantastic Frankel made his last start worthwhile as he encountered trouble in the early stages of the race while running on soft turf against some of the best horses in Europe. The crowd cheering to a sustained din, it was the ideal end to a superhorse’s legacy. Watch it here
1) Black Caviar outsmarts and outsprints them all in Ascot’s Diamond Jubilee (ENG-I) to stay perfect - Humming off the rail in an unprecendented ship from Australia to England, the world’s most perfect sprinter looked easy-going making her move to the lead, but nearly lost her undefeated streak when jockey Luke Nolen appeared to ease her too early. Watch it here
I’m a MLP fan and a video game enthusiast, so maybe that’s also why I feel horse racing should have its own major convention somewhere every year. Wouldn’t that be grand? We’d all cosplay as our favorite race ponies, attend panels with trainers, obsessively hoard merch… WHY DON’T WE HAVE THIS?! WHO DO I COMPLAIN TO?
MR. KRABS… I HAVE AN IDEAAAAA…
If you guys thought waiting around for Eblouissante to start was bad, Rags to Riches’ daughter Opulence (if that is still her name) still hasn’t started. /annoying
Kill lot surprise baby Magna Fortuna was 9th of 12 in his debut race at Hawthorne, finishing with a very low Equibase speed figure of 35. I’m willing to toss it though— the track looked like it favored speed and it was a huge field where he went very wide as did others with a lot of crowding going on. That’s a lot to deal with for a first race. Looking forward to try #2.
Has anyone signed up for a Derby Jackpot beta account yet? I would, but then it would be letting everyone I went to high school with know that the awkward, quiet weirdo is an adept degenerate. Not sure if want… I could certainly get some bragging rights for the races I cashed in on, though! I’M A CLASSY DEGENERATE!
I want a life-size Union Rags Fathead for my room. Add that to my list of things I don’t need but kind of do when I go full-time again. It’s not like I’d be deterring my massive amount of friends and suitors by putting an enormous horse sticker on my wall!
Spring Hill Farm is the latest of three comeback tales for the Pletcher three-year-olds (or soon to be four-year-olds). Who’s next? Thunder Moccasin? Stat? Eh doesn’t look like it…
My baby Coil is leaving me?!! No, but why?!! *plays break-up songs*
Nothing spells rage better than spinning the daily prize wheel in Blazing Silks and getting MORE. FUCKING. COINS. I want horseshoes, you cheap con-artist Facebook game!
Hearing a lot of good things from the breeding experts about how good Dialed In looks.
I don’t know who in their right mind would play a $2 superfecta, but Tampa Bay had a superfecta payout over $79,000 the other day. (10 cent minimum would give you more than $4,000)
I’m glad Paynter won it, but I’m also concerned about what people (including voters) think the Vox Populi is really all about. Oh it’s about a horse surviving injury/illness? Potesta should get one too! I’m sure these are the same people that think a colt is a “she” though, so I’ll calm down now…
It seems perfectly fitting for a crowd favorite: 8-year-old gelding Stud Muffin is retired after 59 starts with 14 wins to Akindale Thoroughbred Rescue.
Ancient Rome… wasn’t he the bee’s knees last year at Gulfstream? Yup, he won the Spectacular Bid Stakes there last year as the next promising sprinter. Now he just won a $15k claimer… oh how the times change!
Tweet o’ the Week: I laughed…
Not everyone had a good 2012 due to injury, slow goings, illness, you name it. There’s a whole basket of excuses to keep a good horse off a track, but they’re all done in the name of conserving that talent for when the time is right. For these ten, I think 2013 might be their best year yet after warming up a bit this year.
10) Eblouissante - Being Zenyatta’s sister is tough, but this girl looked tough-as-nails in her debut race at Hollywood Park. The nearly-black coming four-year-old looks the part of a promising stakes champion, so let’s hope she bucks that dreary Bernardini curse. I can see her taking up plenty more distance, but I’m particularly interested in how she’ll do on dirt in California.
9) Midnight Transfer - I realize I’m probably full of steam, but I can’t shake the frustration how much this guy was/is still being ignored. He went stale to finish 7th in the Santa Anita Derby (I) and was given time off, and has now recently returned to work and is looking just magical. If you go by bloodlines alone, he looks even better as a four-year-old: by Hard Spun and out of a French Deputy mare. Once an intriguing horse on the Derby trail this year, I’m feeling a big comeback is in store!
8) Saratoga Snacks - Bill Parcell’s New York-bred ridgeling got a slower start than most three-year-old colts, but the son of Tale of the Cat has won 4 times this year and placed once in 5 starts— all over New York’s prestigious circuit. After a close runner-up to Lunar Victory and a most recent win over the unstoppable Saginaw, it’s clear this guy’s on the improve. 2013 could mean a first graded stakes for Snacks, and perhaps something more!
7) Unbridled Command - The Master Command sophomore colt solidified his status as a true contender when he won his fifth straight race last out in the Hollywood Derby (I) under surprisingly long 10-1 odds. I like a number of horses he beat— Grandeur [IRE] and Lucky Chappy [IRE]— so that is even more credit to him. Trainer Thomas Bush is high on how easy he does it, and given how lightly he was pushed this year, I’m expecting a big breakthrough year for this gray colt.
6) Mark Valeski - I’ll admit, I didn’t like this colt from Larry Jones’s barn immediately, but he has a heck of a work ethic and was on the edge of really proving himself when he was sidelined from the Kentucky Derby. He validated his connections’ reservations by snatching a well-deserved break winning the Peter Pan (II) before being sidelined again with injury. By Proud Citizen and one of Rosie Napravnik’s true golden rides, he has G1 potential written all over and looks to ready to roll back on the track with bullet breezes.
5) Graydar - The Unbridled’s Song colt was off for most of the year after snuffing out Eight Belles’ full brother at Gulfstream in the spring, but since his recent return he’s been looking better than ever on the heels of his four-year-old year. He went to the front early last out in a mile-long test at Gulfstream, winning by 4 1/4 lengths and just missing the great Commentator’s track mark by .01 seconds! Not bad for a first start off a 3 month layoff! And nobody huff at me that track records don’t mean anything… I began liking Fort Larned after he busted one at Gulfstream, as well!
4) Paynter - The G1-winning son of Awesome Again looked compelling beating up the Haskell field, and by his stunning rate of improvement, looked like the kind of horse we never see anymore: a classic, distance-loving, beats-everything-on-four-legs type. Expected to continue training with Baffert in the coming days, I hope he’s got plenty of fight left in him after his laminitis-colitis battle.
3) Applauding - The Florida-bred daughter of Congrats set the racing world ablaze when she rewrote Keeneland’s 6-furlong mark in her debut win, driving home to win by a gob-smacking 9 lengths. She laid off and raced just once this year, maintaining her spotless record going wire-to-wire in a 6-furlong Churchill allowance. Seeing how much I liked another Congrats filly in Turbulent Descent when that one was just 2 and went on to win much, I have some right to excitement.
2) Mucho Macho Man - Too gangly to get my vote when he ran all three Triple Crown races, Mucho looked outstanding all filled out as a four-year-old. While he won a great deal of races and in impressive style, I think he’s got something better in the tank. Kathy Ritvo knows how this colt ticks and I am lying in wait for a G1 year for this guy in 2013!
1) Animal Kingdom - Must I elaborate? Graham Motion has called the 2010 Kentucky Derby winner the best horse he’s ever trained, and well, Animal looks and acts like this is truth. A horse that cantered to an allowance victory, he injured himself again but re-emerged in the fall as the showstopping runner-up in the super tough Breeders’ Cup Mile. Dare I say, he stole the show from Wise Dan, who looks to be crowned Horse of the Year soon. I expect nothing less than roses for what I believe is the world’s greatest active racehorse. He does it all, and so brilliantly.
It’s the last Racing Beat of the year! Thank you for reading my blurbs!
I know he had a fan or two around here: the speedy Jocosity is off the Derby trail with a recent knee chip.
The Pletchers of spring keep coming back! Today Heavy Breathing makes his return in Gulfstream’s 9th.
Thesis: WinStar agrees to expand their roster to the Zayats’ Pioneerof the Nile and Maimonides to a) make nice for future Zayat powerhouses that will retire to stud… Nehro’s likely going to have just one more year should he return as expected, and b) because Pioneer’s rate is bound to go up some more with his first crop hitting the track in 2013.
I’m thinking about faraway Kentucky Derbies already with G1-winning Tapit daughter Stardom Bound’s big, roan, Big Brown colt!
Bloodlines can be overpriced: Empire Way has 1 win to his 12-race record (a 6 1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Hollywood Park over 4 others), but as Royal Delta’s full brother, he opens his book at $5,000.
What a perfect present for the racing world: Paynter’s been cleared to resume training!
I’m going to make an earnest effort to start painting again. I bought a canvas this week with the decision to try to paint Trinniberg’s portrait, namely because I think he’s a cool horse and looks like he’d be fun to do with his unique face and the bright red and yellow he has on his bridle.
It was love at first sight and is ironically one of my favorite boys’ names as well: the first racehorse I ever “officially” saw raced on Thursday. Alejandro, a now 4-year-old gelding by Alex’s Pal, ran 3rd in a Gulfstream Park claimer. I saw him as a two-year-old running his race from the Calder parking lot while trying to figure out how the hell to get to the grandstand. He ran last that day.
Lasix is a non-issue. It didn’t impact the predicted results of the Breeders’ Cup juvenile races, just the size of the fields. I don’t see how it’s a voting problem.
I wonder if and when Horse Greeley will get some credit as a sire. Still $2,500.
The squealing three-year-old gelding Sacred Tradition was finally adopted!
With his brother retired, I’m looking hard at Elnaawi, the half brother of To Honor and Serve by Street Sense. He’s been working really nicely for a once-run two-year-old under Kieran McLaughlin so far. Much like his brother, he’s less-than-twelving his eighths without pressure! I hope to see him do well on the New York trail.
It has occurred to me that I should have gone with more of my “heart” picks during the Breeders’ Cup… long-time love “Tap Tap” aka Tapizar won the Dirt Mile, one of the first sons of probably my most UNF-tastic stallions Henrythenavigator won the Juvenile Turf, another Tapit baby nearly knocked off Shanghai Bobby, and Calder pony Trinniberg won the Sprint.
Tweet o’ the Week
Opinion post warning! I wanted to bring up some questions about the NTRA Moment of the Year, which is voted on by racing fans. Here are the choices:
Bob Ehalt seems to think judging by this article that the stand-out option is I’ll Have Another’s scratch from the Belmont. I personally question why that is even a choice. It wasn’t a real “moment” but a news story. It was a lack of a moment. Scratching a day before the Belmont sent ripples throughout the racing community, inspiring negative and sad emotions with a lot of controversy and sadness summoned from fans, connections, and even the competition. But it was not a moment, and to pick the scratch over his Derby and Preakness victories is actually kind of insulting if you’re a fan of IHA.
Generally I was kind of “meh” about this year’s Triple Crown because from the get-go, all the good three-year-olds seemed to misfire except I’ll Have Another, Bodemeister, and Dullahan. Union Rags never had a shot in the Derby, which provided extra feel-good emotions when he edged by Paynter in the Belmont. THAT was the moment that should have been on the ballot: after all Matz and Wyeth struggled to get this horse in the clear during a major 3-year-old race plus the additional subplot involving Mike Smith and the Zayat team falling short of yet another Triple Crown win. What happened to Paynter later on was not just one moment, either, as triumphant as his survival was.
Also, why would I vote for something negative? I may have voted for it had it been a negative outcome, such as I’ll Have Another entering, trying his hardest, and losing, for the strong memory we’d all have of it. But a scratch? Not really memorable because you can’t remember something that never happened. I don’t see many people talking about scratches they remember in infamy. Maybe one could argue it’s an historic scratch, but really there are better historic choices here which leads me to whom I voted for…
Royal Delta
A star player all year long with several races being top-notch moments of her own career, Royal Delta conquered what many felt was the toughest race of the year and did it while showing a whole new dimension to her ability by going gate-to-wire which is unusual for her. Mike Smith wrapped up a Breeders’ Cup win record, and Royal Delta became the first mare since the legendary Bayakoa [ARG] to cap back-to-back distaffs.
It’s hard not to love Paynter after his dramatic yet brief three-year-old campaign that concluded with an emphatic G1 win in the Haskell Invitational. It’s even harder to not associate good feels with the bay colt after a winning battle with multiple ailments that left him at death’s door for a stretch of time. With the son of Awesome Again slowly returning to full health, there is few greater joys than seeing his younger relations do well for themselves on the Derby trail.
Experiencing mild success this year with Optimizer, Hamazing Destiny, Hightail, and a few others, Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas has had some on-and-off success training, but looks to have a solid performer in Paynter’s 3/4 brother Oxbow. A bay son of Awesome Again out of the Cee’s Tizzy mare Tizamazing (who is also a full sister to dual-Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow and Paynter’s dam Tizso), he broke well from the far outside to win his 7-furlong maiden special weight over the weekend at Churchill Downs.
Favored in the betting, Oxbow did not have a favorable beginning in racing, being pulled up and vanned off the Saratoga main in his dead-last debut against speed demon Jocosity. No harm done, however, when all things are considered: Paynter never made a start as a two-year-old, never mind 4 races with a win and a third. Oxbow is obviously doing something right after being suddenly favored in the Churchill race after racing third to Gulfport in his prior start at nearly 17-1, and his works suggest he’ll be even quicker as a three-year-old.
Also making 4 starts is Paynter’s cousin (by Speightstown out of Tizsweet, another full to Paynter’s dam) is Tizexx, a two-year-old gray/roan trainee of Bobby Barnett who also ran this past Saturday. She raced three-wide on the Churchill main to tire in the stretch of the 7-furlong maiden race to finish 5th holding her own. She has flashed ample speed in her workouts— she went :47 2/5 in her last 4-panel hum— so this is another one I think will require some time.
Paynter’s full brother racing this year named Fire Flight, will definitely be needing additional time, and I’m not even sure he was ready for his debut going by his short list of published works. Helmed by Keith Asmussen, he was towards the back of a Retama maiden early and dragged his heels upon feeling the stick, losing by some 10 lengths back in 9th.
If lightning can’t strike twice in the same family, I guess we can always wait on Paynter’s highly-anticipated return.
Next horse I think we’ll hear about being retired: Astrology. No recent works, last race was a June allowance at Churchill where he ran 6th of 7. His pedigree’s just too good to keep him going at 5.
Cirrus des Aigles is probably my favorite Euro pony right now.
What’s this I hear about yet another promising youngster from Calder? No, really, that’s all I heard.
As though summoned by the wave of horses named similarly to her books (which I have not read), the author of the Fifty Shades of Grey series has bought three racehorses to be named Fifty Shades Freed, Fifty Shades of Grey (obviously a grey colt), and Fifty Shades Darker. The horses will be trained by George Baker and be ridden by female jockeys (yet to be named). I don’t know how I feel about this…
One of the first underdog “Saratoga stars” I photographed this summer won a stakes at Keeneland this week. Madame Giry launched a huge upset over Stopshoppingmaria in the first race on Whitney Day and has obviously come a long way!
Who do you think is more successful financially… the professional handicappers that work for, say, DRF or Equibase giving out their picks to subscribers, or the people at places like Winning Ponies who don’t represent anyone but still sell their picks to people?
Best of luck to Paynter on continuing his rehab at WinStar.
One of the best times of the year is coming up with the Breeders’ Cup along the worst as ponies who don’t finish as well as they were supposed to get sporadically retired. There’s always a couple of surprises.
Obviously, after that last win, the connections of Obviously are obviously supplementing the horse into the BC Mile.
I still don’t know where Bo Derek came from…
Real promise of commitment in the right place: major breeding farms like WinStar, Darley, Castleton Lyons, and others have committed 25% of their 2013 advertised fees (hey there big bucks Bernardini!) to Thoroughbred aftercare.
Most exciting BC races in order: 1) Ladies Classic 2) Turf Mile 3) Juvenile Fillies, but the most personal attachments race in the Juvenile Turf for me.
Tweet o’ the Week:
Tracks visited: Calder, Saratoga, Belmont, Suffolk.
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