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(A.P. Indy x Dream Rush, by Wild Rush)

• Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Rags to Riches, Uncle Mo, Ashado)
• Jockey: John Velazquez (2nd last year on Broadway’s Alibi)
• Owned by: Stonestreet Stables
  
• Record: 6:4-1-1
• Earnings: $767,000
• Best speed figures: 114 Beyer, 116 Equibase

Background: A classy juvenile filly turned possible-Oaks favorite, Dreaming of Julia is the latest horse named after a real-life person to hope to do well on racing’s biggest stage. Royally-bred with a top rider and a trainer who has already won this gig twice, Julia is apt to be play a big role as she attempts to snatch the Lilies hot off a Gulfstream Oaks (II) performance that outshown the Florida Derby (I) on the same day.

Prep Schedule: A winner from 6 1/2 furlongs to 9, Julia was one of the best fillies in the country last year as a two-year-old after winning a gritty duel against My Happy Face in the Frizette (I), but lost her 3-race undefeated winning streak when a bouncy third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly (I). She was second-best 3 months later in her sophomore debut in the Davona Dale (II) at 1 1/16 miles, running behind winner Live Lively all the way around the speed-favoring Gulfstream main. However, she got her revenge next out 5 weeks later when she took over on the turn to win by more than 21 lengths in the 9-furlong Gulfstream Oaks (II), running faster than Orb did later in the day.

Pedigree: Julia’s heritage reads classic victory like a Hollywood script with big distance ability on top and speed on the bottom. Sire A.P. Indy nabbed the Belmont-Breeders’ Cup Classic double and is the sire of two Pletcher star fillies: Rags to Riches and Love and Pride. Dam Dream Rush is a multiple-G1 winning sprinter with victories in the Prioress (I) and the Test (I) to her credit. Dream Rush also is a product of the Unbridled damsire success story.

Estimated TrueNicks Rating: A++ Variant 11.02

Running Style: Near the pace

Pros: Julia personifies what I want to see in an Oaks filly: stubborn determination, speed, and documented talent at 9 furlongs. Unlike others, she is not overly keen to get away early and is responsive to changes in the race. Her two losses are excusable: one off a layoff, the other after an arduous campaign and ship-out.

Cons: Is Julia at risk of bouncing after that huge Gulfstream Oaks win? That is the biggest question to ask here; even with the Toddster’s good past history with this race, this is probably the toughest Oaks field I’ve ever seen.

Final Word: Dreaming of Julia is no stranger to running tough races and winning them, but she will have to be at her best to nail this one down. Thankfully by the looks of this race, Beholder and others will be keen to give the race a lot of speed, which only helps a filly like her who likes to sit off the front end and has the stamina to make a strong move at the end. I will be surprised if she is worse than third.

(More Than Ready x Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway)

• Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Super Saver, Rags to Riches, Uncle Mo)
• Jockey: John Velazquez (4th last year on Went the Day Well)
• Owned by: Let’s Go Stable, Tabor, Michael B., Magnier, Mrs. John, and Smith, Derrick..
  
• Record: 4:4-0-0
• Earnings: $861,300
• Best speed figures: 105 Beyer (allowance win), 108 Equibase

Background: Unraced at two, Verrazano represents the best of a rather classy Pletcher contingent this year with two graded wins and two explosive warmup races where he was kept in hand. A half to last year’s Risen Star Stakes (II) star El Padrino, Verrazano is a hulking and ferocious contender sure to draw favoritism after he proved himself a winner at 9 furlongs last out in the Wood Memorial (I). He is the only undefeated horse in the field and the latest horse to try to disprove history that a horse with no two-year-old starts can win the Derby (Apollo was the last horse to do it in 1882).

Prep Schedule: Even before the deflection of popular stablemate Violence, Verrazano was the talk of the Derby trail since dashing to a 7 3/4 length win on January 1 in a maiden special weight at Gulfstream. Next out he was kept in hand stretching out another 1.5 furlongs to a mile and won by an impressive 16 1/4 length-margin before shipping successfully to win the Tampa Bay Derby (II) quite easily. Staying spotless, he held off all competitors to win the Wood (I).

Pedigree: Sire More Than Ready was a talented juvenile who turned out to be an even better sire than he was a G1-winning racehorse with two Breeders’ Cup winners and success on every surface. Dam Enchanted Rock, by classic turfer Giant’s Causeway, is a half to two G2 winners: 10 furlong Ladies’ Handicap winner Tara Roma and G2 True North winner and sprinter Waldoboro (both by Lyphard). Verrazano is heavily inbred, with 2 tracebacks each to Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector, and Raise a Native within the first five generations.  TrueNicks Rating: B, Variant 1.52

Running Style: Off-the-pace

Pros: Without a doubt the most talented horse on the trail, Verrazano exhibited raw speed and immeasurable quality tackling fields as his perfect win streak shows. His speed will no doubt help him gain good position in the Derby with regular rider John Velazquez sticking with the colt for what will hopefully be win #5.

Cons: Similar to Todd Pletcher’s other Wood Memorial (I) winner and undefeated colt Gemologist from last year, Verrazano has yet to be truly tested as he will undoubtedly be come Derby Day. His performance in the Wood (I) was not as explosive as everyone expected, and he was tapped to go on to win when he should have moved ahead easily after those soft fractions on the front end.

Final Word: If the Kentucky Derby were a mile-long race, Verrazano would be able to get it. But with the Pletcher curse, lack of a true head-to-head test, and what have speculated for a long time regarding his soundness and distance capability, he is a very very vulnerable favorite.

To Honor and Serve (KY)

Basics:

(Bernardini x Pilfer, by Deputy Minister)

• Trainer: Bill Mott (Cigar, Drosselmeyer, Royal Delta)
• Jockey: John Velazquez
• Owned by: Live Oak Plantation
• Career Record: 16: 8-1-3
• Earnings: $1,798,840

Vital Stats:

• 2012 Record: 5: 2-0-1
• TrueNicks rating: “A+” Variant 5.34
• Highest Equibase Speed Figure of 2012: 118
• Lost last prep [4th, Kelso Handicap, by about 10 1/2 lengths]
• Ran 7th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic
• Has only won once outside of New York
• Trainer won last year’s Classic-Ladies’ Classic double

Summary: THAS was appropriately hyped up at the start of the year following up his 7th in the Classic with a big win in the Cigar Mile (I). A good sophomore who got things started late, he continued on the warpath as a four-year-old and despite weighing between the Dirt Mile and the Classic, both trainer and owner appear optimistic about his chances in the Big One. Sporting classic lineage and good looks to match, this son of Bernardini looks to go out with a bang in his final start before retiring to stud at Gainesway.

Prep Schedule: Taking a 5-month layoff from his Cigar Mile (I) win, THAS romped by 5 1/4 lengths over 3 rivals in the 1-mile Westchester (III) at Belmont, then stuck around New York for the Met Mile (I) in May where he was stuck on the rail to lose by 3 to Preakness winner (I) Shackleford and Dirt Mile (I) champ Caleb’s Posse. He looked hazy as a well-beaten 4th in the 9-furlong Suburban (II), losing by some 7 1/2 lengths, but roared back into contention to courageously swat out Mucho Macho Man in the 9-furlong Woodward (I). In his final prep over a wet going, he was bumped and went wide to refuse to do better than 4th.

Running Style: Stalking

Pros: As a horse who could handle a mile well, THAS has the unique ability to win at the one-turn and be competitively fast enough to last in the Classic. Laying right off the pace, he won’t encounter much traffic and has a stayer’s pedigree. He also will be keeping John Velazquez, his most compatible rider.

Cons: Despite being a good 4-for-7 at 9 furlongs, he was all out to last that long.

Final Word: As a long-time member of the THAS bandwagon, the colt has a shot as one of the year’s better four-year-olds but is not the best for the distance which he needs to be to win a race like this. I mentioned a while back about how good his chances are in the Classic, but I was discouraged by his poor attitude in the Kelso (II) last out.

Time for a silly post. I’m a bit worn out from all the serious topics and I could use the boost right now.

I’m somewhat infamous to people that know me for my bad eyesight. I often vow to get Lasik for myself once I graduate because I get tired of never getting to wear sunglasses (and see, that is), not getting to lay down on my side watching a movie, coping with dust and rain, and then ya know, there’s the thing where I apparently look like two different people with and without glasses. And no, I don’t think contacts are an option if you see the way I react when someone tries to put mascara on my lower lashes…

But anyway, I love our jockeys, and if you’ve never been to a track where many of them like to populate at once you are missing out. But, while getting to see many of the nation’s top riders, I made little mental notes on how getting to see them in-person was a mite different from seeing them on TV and in oodles of photos. What were the impressions? Did I need to look at my program with my bad eyesight? HMM…

• John Velazquez - In my top list of favorites if not THE favorite of mine, Johnny V is easy to pick out for his bright and charismatic smile and seemed to beam even more around the throngs of railbirds.
• Ramon Dominguez - A lot of railbirds can be found calling this guy’s name, and why not since he’s always at the top of the earnings list. He always looked super stern and focused.
• Julien Leparoux - One can tell it’s Leparoux without looking down at the program surprisingly easily. He’s probably the palest rider in the parade and he’s got such unique bone structure in his face… dat French nose… He always seems cool and collected.
• Mike Smith - Another hard-to-miss type with a serious expression on his face heading to post, often squinting in the afternoon sunlight.
• Mario Guiterrez - I don’t know if he was just very alert and focused when I saw him or if he was really nervous and freaked out. Always looked appreciative of the fans.
• Rosie Napravnik - Always looks the part of a super professional out there; you’d naturally expect some sort of emotional sway from a female, but Rosie doesn’t show a shred of anything but getting to business. You wouldn’t need to look at her record to know she’s tough as nails heading out there.
• Jerry Bailey - I kind of came across him by accident on Belmont Day while trying to leave the grandstand area. I saw the broadcast tent and went “OMG! IT’S JERRY BAILEY!” *refrains from making a scene*

STOP EVERYONE!! IT’S JERRY BAILEY!

It’s no small secret that I’m a fan of To Honor and Serve. Other than Spare Change, who has been struggling in allowance company this year, he’s my only current Bernardini love since Alpha’s credentials went south at the start of the new year. He’s got a bright, expressive look on his face and some speed to burn. Not the most awesome horse I’ve seen, but seeing him and Brilliant Speed last year made me a fan of seeing those Live Oak polka dots.

This year will be his last year on the track, after which he will retire to a stud career at the illustrious Gainesway. While he’s been a little overrated on the betting odds way of things, he’s still a justified G1 winner— just with no strength in particular. With trainer Bill Mott still deciding which Breeders’ Cup to send him in— the Classic or the Dirt Mile— is one better than the other?

Most of THAS’s critics will vote to send him to the Dirt Mile. This is a good race with some excellent past winners already, and milers have been successful as sires afterwards for passing on much-needed speed. A miler with distance breeding would no doubt help this colt in his next career, and it seems he would be good at the distance with many of his works on dirt being breezy :47 and 1:00 moves. Paired with powerful hindquarters and size, he has all the trademarks of a willing miler.

Last year’s Classic at Churchill Downs was a weird mash-up, with Game On Dude nearly wiring the race and many anticipated entries hardly being involved. While he wasn’t my choice in the race, I barked that the colt could have finished much better than 7th. After being checked in the early stages, turning for home, the colt (orange #13) moves from fourth place about two lengths back to third, sitting 4-wide too early waiting for Uncle Mo to fold. He is only passed in the final sixteenth or so by the closing crew, which included winner Drosselmeyer, and lost by about 3 lengths altogether. Keep in mind this is a horse who really only ran to his form once during the year after being sidelined with an injury, when he won the Pennsylvania Derby (II) in stakes record time. He finished arguably well for a horse who was not totally sharp.

However, with that said, To Honor and Serve’s chances go down considerably if he is not paired with John Velazquez, who has piloted the colt to the winners’ circle 5 out of 7 tries since THAS’s debut and has shown great ability at reading a router’s best strengths. However, Johnny V will probably choose at least one or two horses ahead of him in the Classic possibles lineup: Wise Dan, if he elects to go (and he should!) instead of the Mile, and maybe Animal Kingdom if the horse is up to the challenge.

Prediction: if he wins or takes second decisively in the Kelso (II), we’ll see him in what is shaping up to be a tough Dirt Mile race. If not, a shot at the wonky Classic is apt to be in the cards. He is not the best 10 furlong horse (nor are most 9 furlong horses!), but he deserves a sideways glance.