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(First Defence x Rising Tornado, by Storm Cat)

• Trainer: Bill Mott (Cigar, To Honor and Serve, Drosselmeyer)
• Jockey: Joel Rosario
• Owned by: Juddmonte Farms
  
• Record: 3:3-0-0
• Earnings: $201,300
• Best speed figures: 88 Beyer, 103 Equibase

Background: One of the more recent hype fillies for the Oaks came out of seemingly nowhere after racing lightly (and successfully) leading up to her dynamite G2 win in the Gazelle (II). Improving with each start, is Close Hatches the newest major success story for the Juddmonte empire, who won the Oaks in 2001 with Flute?

Prep Schedule: 3-for-3 in her career, Close Hatches won for fun in her debut race at 7 furlongs at Aqueduct, winning by 7 lengths while closing into a rapid pace. 2 months later, she sealed the deal in an allowance race while stretching out to 1 1/16 miles, urged by Rosario to win by 1 1/4 lengths over Kimberly Jean (an outrun 4th later on in the Gulfstream Oaks won by Dreaming of Julia in smashing fashion). In her most recent start, she stretched out successfully to the Oaks distance of 9 furlongs to win the Gazelle (II) in a wire-to-wire effort over the previously undefeated Princess of Sylmar.

Pedigree: New sire First Defence is a Juddmonte resident stallion finding some success with his first foal crop (grass runner Dundonnell included) after a G1-winning career as a sprinter. He is the product of your basic American strategy for success being by hot speed sire Unbridled’s Song and out of Honest Lady, a daughter of Seattle Slew who is also a half to Belmont/Wood Memorial winner Empire Maker. Close Hatches’ dam is Rising Tornado, a Storm Cat daughter linebred to the familiar Secretariat-Sir Gaylord dynasty. Close Hatches features 2 traces each to Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector in the first 5 generations.

Estimated TrueNicks Rating: A++ Variant 17.74

Running Style: Adaptable

Pros: A horse I really liked naturally because of my past success with Mott-Juddmonte ties, Close Hatches looks to be keen with her third start off a two-month layoff and is already strong at the Oaks distance. She can win closing as well as setting the pace, so she can likely adapt to whatever Beholder, Dreaming of Julia, and others throw at her.

Cons: Other fillies in the field have had better winning speed figures than her, so she will really have to be better than ever to win. She will also be tested in a very talented Oaks field, as she ran to the nines last out largely unopposed on the front end.

Final Word: Bill Mott? YES! Juddmonte silks? YES MORE! A talented filly named in the spirit of her mother’s name (When a tornado comes, you CLOSE/BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES!)? AWW YEAH! It’s no wonder why I was drawn to Close Hatches, especially after experiencing a bit of bettors’ glee when I got a couple real nice prices last year on Mott-Juddmonte couplings. Close Hatches, although a pick among the wiseguys, should get a little better of a price than three or four others right when she should be ready to peak.

I wonder if Europe is obsessing hard over Goldikova’s baby boy as much as people here are obsessing over Rachel’s and Zenyatta’s. One out of these three doing badass would be a pleasing percentage.

Proof Frankel’s baby brother is going to be even better than him: HE HAS A BLAZE!

I’m already sick of this dumb Kentucky Derby points system. One of the biggest motivating factors behind it is that it’ll be “easier” for the public to follow. Ok, maybe? But wouldn’t winning the big races that ought to be televised be even more of a help? The Santa Anita Derby, the Florida Derby, the Wood, the Arkansas… come on now…

My mother the pedigrees-I-know/buttcapper will be dismayed to hear that Quiet American has been pensioned. So much sad.

I am so unbelievably pissed at Joel Rosario for that shitty ride on Animal Kingdom. Who was it on here that hated him already? Was it you Paige?

One horse I forgot to mention but meant to in my last Derby Top 10 update: Texas Bling, the super longshot that won the Springboard Mile. He’s an Oklahoma bred and an underdog at that, but he’s been working super well according to reports. On a similar note, Dewey Square may try turf… his last workout earlier today was over it.

There goes Coolmore jumping the shark again by buying an interest in Verrazano.

I am dying I want to see Gary Stevens ride in the flesh so bad.

There’s not much to see yet brewing in Dubai: Travers (I) champ Alpha ran last in the Al Maktoum Challenge (II) while Lovely Pass won the UAE 1000 Guineas in achingly slow time (1:39 flat for the mile).

Rumor has it Keeneland is looking to rip out their poly in favor of dirt. I’m all for it; handicapping would be made easier and horsemen would take competing on the surface much more seriously. History is full of doubters when it comes to horses who only win on synthetic.

As I continue working on my Oaks Top 10, I’m keen to include a filly of Phil Simms’, partially because of her name: Miffed, a three-year-old daughter of Purge, who is worth watching.

Sweet baby Street Life is off to be a California sire. All dreams of him standing in New York are dashed.

An old favorite in Wasted Tears just had her first foal, but I died when I saw that it was a colt by Malibu Moon. Ugh. No. At least he has a cool facial marking?

Tweet o’ the Week: More cute babby picture time, this one by Even the Score

Flat Out (FL)

Basics:

(Flatter x Cresta Lil, by Cresta Rider)

• Trainer: Bill Mott (Cigar, Drosselmeyer, Royal Delta)
• Jockey: Joel Rosario
• Owned by: Preston Stables LLC
• Career Record: 19: 6-4-2
• Earnings: $2,042,383

Vital Stats:

• 2012 Record: 5: 1-1-1
• TrueNicks rating: “A+” Variant 5.58
• Highest Equibase Speed Figure of 2012: 121
• Won last prep [1st, Jockey Club Gold Cup (I), by a head]
• 5th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (by some 3-3 1/2 lengths)
• Trainer won last year’s Classic-Ladies Classic double
• Jockey was consistently leading rider at Santa Anita before moving east this year
• Aims to be the first Florida-bred to win the Classic since Skip Away
• No horse older than 5 has ever won the Classic (Flat Out is 6)

Summary: After trading barns to Bill Mott’s as one of last year’s best dirt routers, Flat Out has reached back into his top form recently winning his second consecutive Jockey Club Gold Cup (I).

Prep Schedule: He got off to an odd start trying grass at the start of the year, finishing 12th and last in the turf-bound Ft Lauderdale Stakes (III) at Gulfstream. Returning to dirt, he was wide and responseless running 5th in the Donn (I) and was subsequently transferred to Bill Mott. Taking a 5-month layoff, he was primed in the mile-long Monmouth Cup (II), getting trapped on the inside to run a good 2nd behind Rule and just missed the place in the 9-furlong Whitney (I). He reached his old form once again running on the wet Belmont going to repeat his victory in the 10-furlong Jockey Club Gold Cup (I) by a head over Stay Thirsty.

Running Style: Mid-pack

Pros: Flat Out ran well in last year’s Classic and is arguably in better form right now than he was back then, peaking just perfectly to run an impressive race in the JCGC.

Cons: If there ever was a track-biased horse, Flat Out is a subscriber to that status. Despite never finishing off the board on a New York track, he doesn’t look like the same threatening horse on other tracks.

Final Word: Despite having a lot of clout in winning his last prep and being at peak, Flat Out is the weakest link in Bill Mott’s 3-horse offensive in this race. I just don’t believe he can beat some of these others on a track he probably won’t like.

I’m going to be deep for a second here: Handicapping is a lot like the weather. Every day can’t be sunny, and even if the forecast predicts no rain, there’s no guarantee it won’t.

Another Dixieland Band bites the dust… er, retires: Simmard was having one hell of a year besting all my choices on the grass (Newsdad, Joinem).

Excuse me while I plan a road trip to/grand equine theft of Lane’s End.

Chantal Sutherland gets a 4-day ban from British stewards for overuse of the whip. At least she won oh wait.

Anyone who had a hunch bet in Friday’s Saratoga R5, Shakeira/Wholelottashakin, must have enjoyed a nice payoff.

I imagine those people who claim to have paid their way through college from handicapping are either a) college grads from the 80s when college was cheap, b) super-omg-awesome at exotics, c) bullshitting me. I’d feel lucky if I could buy a textbook every semester with my winnings.

The Travers looks likely to be laughably awful this year. Again. Time for a hunch bet on Alpha.

I need to write something about how much I dislike the DRF’s handicapping style. To each his own, but I purposely avoid whomever they pick 9 out of 10 times.

Is there anyone out there— still in training, that is— that can keep up with Trinniberg for the King’s Bishop (I)?

I have a new love on the horizon: the chestnut Big Brown colt Mach Seven is out of a City Zip daughter and is trained by Michael Matz. He was second-last in his debut trailing the whole way at Delaware Park though, so it’s a good thing I forgot to bet on that one… ANYWAY, I CALLED HIM FIRST! Looking at his pedigree maybe he’ll like turf…

New two-year-old names to add to the watch list: Sonofasamurai (First Samurai x Midnight Deelite, by Afternoon Deelites), a McPeek trainee owned by Susan McPeek, and Orb (Malibu Moon x Lady Liberty, by Unbridled) under the Phipps colors.

What good is suspending a trainer if they can just give directions to their assistant trainers during their “time-out” period? They’re still getting credit for training, but are basically getting a vacation off of actual work while doing it.

New favorite horse name? (Yes again): Pink Leninade, a filly by Lemon Drop Kid out of Soviet, by Unbridled.

I hope Questing [GB] gets a good, long career. She’s too talented to retire sooner!

Little Mike, you’re just too beautiful a sight… I too prefer running all alone up front.

Joel Rosario is a good front rider while Mike Smith does best with those coming from off the pace. Therefore, I think Atigun’s a good match for Smith in the Travers…

Tweet o’ the Week: