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I handicapped the three big Travers (I) preps this past week… personal picks Ever So Lucky and Street Life hit the board in the Curlin Stakes. Alpha was fitter than I expected in the Jim Dandy (II) where second place went to Neck ‘N Neck as I predicted and Fast Falcon faltered, and last of all, I got the exacta in the Haskell (I). Other weekend cash-ins worth mentioning were $10 on Amazombie in the Bing Crosby (I), $5 on Winter Memories (Dream Peace [IRE] screwed my Winter Memories-Zagora [FR] exacta) in the Diana Stakes (I), and $2 on a longshot Matz trainee named Assateague on the Saratoga turf.

As a rule and a showing of my true inner stubbornness, I will typically make plays on whatever race I handicapped mid-week on the weekends unless a) the odds are horrid and or b) there was a significant change to the race, such as a key horse scratching or in many cases of late, track condition changes. One thing I will freely admit is that I have yet to really grasp how an off track will affect how the race shapes up, and ultimately, finishes. One guideline a NYRA commentor mentioned leading up to the Jim Dandy (II) that I openly agree with is that with an off track comes the opportunity for longshots to shine, as many who ran poorly on a fit track tend to blossom in the mud or just take advantage of a struggling favorite on the surface. Failure to consider the heavier-than-expected rainfall probably didn’t affect me much this weekend, but it has in the past!

This week, I’m going to go light on everyone and just let the horses speak for themselves. Summing up the 3 three-year-old preps in one word is “meh.” I don’t know what to make of the Jim Dandy (II), most of all. I will say that I do not consider Alpha to be a top contender and will be taking advantage of all the love he’s getting when the Travers rolls around. He set soft fractions on the front end on an off track and while he won by about 2 lengths, the race was not impressive at all. Gemologist beat this horse at his best and that one finished last in the Haskell (I)… what does that say? Paynter looked dominant, but considering the loose credentials of the Haskell field, he wasn’t tested. At this point in time, I think Street Life will win the Travers.

As far as older horses go, Winter Memories made me proud beating up Tapitsfly and the Euros to be 3-for-4 at Saratoga and a wonderful prospect for the Breeders’ Cup Filly Turf (I). Just an easy win for her right there. Sprinter Capital Account should be watched in the future as well as a Starlight Racing two-year-old named Lawn Man I had down to win (but did not bet because of the deep field, agh! 10-1!) who destroyed a very classy maiden special weight at Saratoga.

Despite being seen as the lesser prep race for the Travers (I), the Jim Dandy (II) may be of a lesser grade than the Haskell (I), but in many ways it is the smart route to the big summertime prize for three-year-olds being at Saratoga. Street Sense won the Jim Dandy-Travers double in 2007, as did Bernardini in 2006, Flower Alley in 2005, and Stay Thirsty just this past year. This year features no one clear front-runner, but 3 Kentucky Derby contenders, a G1 winning shipper, and 2 Belmont runners.

A 50% chance of rain the day of the race may soak the track, but I’m optimistic it won’t take too much of a beating with the summertime drought that’s been trending in the northeast.

$200,000 Jim Dandy Stakes (II) - 3-Year-Olds. 1 1/8 miles on dirt at Saratoga Race Course. Post Time: Saturday, July 28 at 5:45pm EST.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Alpha - Ramon Dominguez, 119 lbs, Kieran McLaughlin - Both Bernardini and son Stay Thirsty won the Jim Dandy, so can a fresh Alpha get the job done off the rail? New York is his calling card, with his maiden break being at Saratoga at first asking along with two stakes wins leading up to a dry 12th in the Kentucky Derby. Impressive in his runner-up finish in the Wood (I), while Alpha will fighting a layoff and a rail spot, he seems mature for the task. Ace works at Saratoga affirm his fitness. With all the above said and the fact that leading rider Ramon chose Alpha over Hansen this weekend speaks volumes. 

2) Fast Falcon - Rosie Napravnik, 117 lbs, Nick Zito - A son of Awesome Again, Fast Falcon was fast, but not fast enough to outduel a very game Teeth of the Dog in the Dwyer (II) and the Easy Goer. Working steadily at Saratoga, the weight break could prove useful to this nice closer’s tactics as arguably the best lightweight here without a stakes win. Will need to improve a lot though if he wants to keep up.

3) Atigun - Julien Leparoux, 117 lbs, Ken McPeek - The Istan colt impressed in his modest attempt to catch Paynter in the Belmont (I) where he placed 3rd just behind the others. A nice sweeping closer, he’s been doing very well since moving to Saratoga, but his past stakes attempts have been of a concern with flat performances.

4) Neck ‘N Neck - Leandro Goncalves, 119 lbs, Ian Wilkes - The Flower Alley colt really switched gears since the start of the year, living up to his connections’ expectations while winning the Matt Winn (II) by 7 lengths along with an allowance before that by 6 1/2, both at 1 1/16 miles. He looks ready to roll for a big effort here and will likely sit mid-pack.

5) My Adonis - Javier Castellano, 117 lbs, Kelly Breen - The Pleasantly Perfect colt struggled to get it right all year and finally prevailed winning the ungraded Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth over 1 1/16 miles while setting the pace. No recent works (at least that I can see) are very concerning; coupled with the belief I think this one is just going to be a miler or 7-furlong horse, and he’s an easy one to leave out.

6) Teeth of the Dog - Joel Rosario, 121 lbs, Michael Matz - A deserving favorite, the Bluegrass Cat colt was simply awesome in his bone-chilling duel with Fast Falcon last out in the Dwyer (II) after he unwisely made an early bid for the front, becoming vulnerable to the closer’s late move. Still, lesson learned, I think, and the Dog should be anyone’s top 3 to watch. Relaxed works at Fair Hill are encouraging before an anticipated blowout here, and those speed figures keep going up.

7) Liaison - Martin Garcia, 119 lbs, Bob Baffert - The lone G1 winner in the field is this re-emerging son of Indian Charlie, who impressed leading trainer Baffert enough to ship west along with Garcia, also impressed with the colt as of late. He rallied hard to place 3rd in the Swaps (II) last out, fighting a tedious pace set by Blueskiesnrainbows, and just missed winning the Affirmed (III). If anything, I have to applaud Liaison’s fighting spirit this year. He’s been zipping along really nicely and if Baffert’s impressed, you should look at him.

8) Prospective - John Velazquez, 119 lbs, Mark Casse - The winner of the tiny Iowa Derby (III), the Malibu Moon colt looked like he had a nice public workout there and looks to be a promising shipper from Mark Casse’s barn at Woodbine. A horse with some smarts and a jockey boost to Johnny V, he has some class issues to work out but looks fit for an attempt.

Top Picks in Order:

1) Teeth of the Dog

2) Neck ‘N Neck

3) Fast Falcon

Alpha and Teeth of the Dog are the speediest horses here, but face a serious challenge from Liaison, who I still question as a top three-year-old. I’m expecting My Adonis to set an even pace with Teeth of the Dog sitting off it with Neck ‘N Neck, Liaison, and Alpha in reserve just behind those two. In the stretch, Adonis will tire, and from there on out it gets tricky. Alpha will probably show his rust, Liaison may or may not prove that he’s another Indian Charlie who can’t do 9 furlongs, the extra weight might put Dog at a disadvantage… what to do? I think Dog’s got enough in him for one more at 9 furlongs while Neck ‘N Neck will improve to be good for second (might still be too green to win). I still think highly of Fast Falcon for third.

Value Pick: Fast Falcon

Between January and today, we lost a ton of star power in the three-year-old dirt router division, the most prominent miss being Triple Crown leg winners I’ll Have Another and Union Rags, who suffered a suspensory injury and is now out for the year along with Went the Day Well, who has some ankle issues— all three would have likely been included in the top 5 otherwise. In devising the summer’s must-watch list, I had to leave out so many, blocking out any contenders who have not had a recorded work within the past 60 days.

Unfortunately, I am forced to leave out this year’s many excellent turf runners in favor of dirt routers in determining the best candidates to rack up points towards a big Eclipse prize.

10) Gemologist - I was going to leave this one out, but he’s been throwing bullets lately and it’s hard to knock a colt who was undefeated most of his career. However, he has a lot of questions hovering over him now that the fields are getting stronger than what he’s faced in the past, and it doesn’t help that trainer Todd Pletcher is in a slouch. Next move: Jim Dandy (II) or Haskell (I)

9) Neck ‘N Neck - The connections loved him despite his hard luck early on the Triple Crown trail, and he really blossomed when winning the Matt Winn (III) by a whopping 7 lengths. If he can continue to mature, I think we’ll see another special Flower Alley colt this year… Next move: Jim Dandy (II)

8) Alpha - Nearly left this guy off the list despite ranking him in my top three juvenile colts last year. By the looks of his three-year-old year, he has gotten over his gate quirks and has matured mentally quite a good deal. He dueled with Gemologist bravely in the Wood Memorial (I) before enduring a fuzzy trip in the Kentucky Derby. Issue-laced, I still feel it’s more possible for a Bernardini to blossom during the summertime (Stay Thirsty did as well as the sire himself!). Next move: Jim Dandy (II)

7) Prospective - A promising winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (II), I thought the colt had a good mind and a determined drive during the Triple Crown season, making him a live longshot for the Kentucky Derby. He didn’t do as well as I hoped, but made a nice run in the shrunken Ohio Derby (III) last out to show he still has what it takes. Next move: Haskell (I)

6) Blueskiesnrainbows - An English Channel who is actually good on dirt, the chestnut Baffert trainee made an amazing impression running third in the Santa Anita Derby (I), passed only toward the end by I’ll Have Another and Creative Cause. He won the Swaps Stakes (II), and while he was largely unchallenged in that race setting the pace, he’s another Baffert horse to watch as the distances grow. Next move: Nominated to Jim Dandy (II) as a possible

5) Street Life - The Street Sense colt has been an excellent runner all season, winning a few in New York and last finished a belated fourth in the Belmont Stakes (I). He should especially be watched because of all the speed present in this three-year-old crop, setting up quite perfectly for his closing move. Next move: Curlin Stakes

4) Hansen - A dynamite two-year-old, the Tapit phenom has had a very rocky three-year-old season thus far, sailing smooth to win the Gotham (III) but facing some questionable moves in the Kentucky Derby when strangled back to 10th and a rank 2nd to Algorithms in the Holy Bull (III). However, Hansen is still a classy horse, and should Mike Maker send the colt to the front, he’ll put up a serious fight to stay there. His Iowa Derby (III) prep looked real nice as well, automatically putting him at the head of the list of horses bound for the Travers. Next move: Likely West Virginia Derby (II)

3) Paynter - This horse has just been getting better and better with each start, much like his stablemate Bodemeister. I originally didn’t like him all that much even early on (I was an original Bode supporter of the Zayat string), but the way he constantly performs well despite getting the most bizarre things thrown at him— maiden, then a big G1, then shipping into mud, then 12 furlongs?! He still has some questions to answer, but looks like a horse who will get better as the months wear on. Next move: Haskell (I)

2) Teeth of the Dog - Michael Matz’s second-string to Union Rags may be pulling a Stay Thirsty this year by grabbing his ousted stablemates intended accolades instead. He showed tenacity while winning the Dwyer (II) and really hasn’t been out of the heat of the fight since the start of the year while finishing an improving third behind Gemologist and Alpha in the Wood Memorial (I). I’m waiting for this one to get better and better. Next move: Jim Dandy (II)

1) Bodemeister - The Empire Maker colt boasted huge figures winning the Arkansas Derby (I) and impressed more than the winner in the Kentucky Derby (I). I’m dismissing the Preakness (I) runner-up performance because of a boggy rail, and while my biggest concern will be post-fever fitness (the reason he is out of the Haskell), I have few doubts Bode won’t be able to handle the crowd. He isn’t a “need the lead” type, and with his pedigree, ought to do well. If a horse can outspeed Trinniberg and hold on to almost wire a classic with such little prep… I’m excited. Next move: Unknown prep for Travers

It would be awesome to see O’Prado Again, Algorithms, and or Fire on Ice come back in time, however unlikely that may be…