(Home)

Hi again everyone! After a long break, I am excited to get back to “officially” handicapping… I say official because I picked Freedom Child to win the Peter Pan (II) on my Twitter, but it kind of disqualifies me if I didn’t put it on blast. Anyway, as a favor to Reinier and a litmus test to my luck this weekend, how about an overview for today’s historic Pimlico Special (III) for older handicap horses?

$300,000 Pimlico Special (III) - 4-Year-Olds & Up. 1 3/16 miles on dirt at Pimlico Race Course. Post Time: Friday, May 17 at 5:52pm EST.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Avenida Paseo is a late-scratch

2) Indian Dance - Luis Garcia, 118 lbs, Lawrence Murphy - The Maryland-bred gelding by Indian Charlie won his last start by a smidgen here at Pimlico, edging out favored Hakama to win by a nose going 1 1/16 miles. That victory was the gelding’s first since 2010, after competing in the occasional graded stakes without success. Breeding-wise, this isn’t the race for him. Class-wise, this isn’t the race for him. He could improve off that last start some more after a layoff, but by how much is questionable.

3) Brimstone Island - Xavier Perez, 118 lbs, Wayne Campbell - A winner in last year’s Preakness undercard, the Tiznow colt is gunning for his fourth consecutive win. He has only been running in allowances, with his last graded attempt being a hopeless 6th in the Smarty Jones (III) his 2-year-old year in the slop. A colt with some hidden class, this is not an impossible field and Perez is a high percentage rider at Pimlico already with 21%. His breeding suggests route potential, and his speed figures are consistently good.

4) Eighttofasttocatch - Forest Boyce, 124 lbs, Tim Keefe - A local favorite, the Not for Love gelding is hot off a commanding 5-length win in a Pimlico stake last month in the mud. Keen to be making the pace, he tired badly in last year’s Special to finish 9th and hasn’t done a graded stakes since then. Keefe is a high percentage trainer so far this year, and Eighttofasttocatch sports some sizzling figures. If he can be rated, he win, but even with that mindset he has struggled with the class and distance jump in the past and may be overbet.

5) Richard’s Kid - Rosie Napravnik, 118 lbs, Doug O’Neill - A dominant force that has won many graded events, the Lemon Drop Kid shipper is the keen veteran coming in for the race after being disqualified to 7th in the Alysheba (II). Richard’s Kid has struggled to reach the winner’s circle since trading barns from Baffert to O’Neill, with his last win being in July 2012. The distance will suit Richard’s Kid well and with O’Neill’s successful ship rate and Napravnik’s good riding skills, he is not without a chance to close into a fast pace should it present itself. However, he has had this opportunity before and hasn’t acted on it, and being an 8-year-old this year, is it time to call it a career— even in a pretty easy field? Richard’s Kid hasn’t been the same super classy horse in a while.

6) Concealed Identity - Angel Serpa, 124 lbs, Linda Gaudet - The Smarty Jones gelding ruled the slop earlier in the year while winning a 9-furlong stake at Laurel, but lost to Eighttofasttocatch in that gelding’s most recent romp and was traded to turf unsuccessfully recently. Kind of a “meh” horse, he could win this if he can keep pace with Eighttofasttocatch this time, but is an on again, off again type. I wouldn’t go with him unless he had some really attractive odds… I think he can outlast Eighttofasttocatch at this distance should the track decide to not favor early speed.

7) Last Gunfighter - Javier Castellano, 124 lbs, Chad Brown - Bound to take the lion’s share of the winning pool after his most recent G3 win in the Excelsior to mark 5 wins in a row, the First Samurai colt is the scary shipper coming in. I’m not terribly keen on his overall class, but with his consistency no matter what setup he gets, he’s got an excellent shot to win this race upgrading to Castellano off a string of wins and lively works. He’ll get a clean break and likely move up from there. He looks like the solid favorite with a sharp 4 panel work, but the one blight on his record is the long layoff he’ll be shipping off of, with all of his recent success coming from New York tracks.

Top Picks in Order:

1) Brimstone Island

2) Last Gunfighter

3) Richard’s Kid

I imagine Eighttofasttocatch will try to rate the whole way around, and while he can win this way, I think the distance will get to him. Brimstone Island looks ready off his consistent record with his Pimlico experience and route breeding, can take this with some attractive odds. Last Gunfighter will take all the money, but shipping out off a layoff might hurt his class in the end. Richard’s Kid will try to close in late with Napravnik, but I’m sold that he’s done despite being the most accomplished in the field. Use Brimstone Island and Last Gunfighter for your double tickets.

Good afternoon all. I am so so mad at how much it’s been raining over at Churchill Downs so I’m being a butt about not making very many picks. I just am not a gifted slop-capper and more often than not, it yields goofy results making good horses lose for whatever reason. Oaks picks that I posted on Twitter, but was not able to post on here yesterday:

Yeah, would have been magical if she won, but what a crappy race it was anyway. I knew someone was apt to catch Beholder. Good going to Princess of Sylmar.

Now on to my personal Derby “picks”. I have no idea how well most of these stand up to a muddy going, so I won’t be too harsh on myself should they all fail miserably:

5) Orb - It’s really been hard to knock a horse that keeps getting better, had flourishing works at Churchill all week, and seems naturally fit for the job of winning a 10-furlong race. Orb checks off all the boxes so to speak and other than a post position that might squeeze him in early on, I’m not too worried about him doing well, and he may even win. Acceptable odds: 4-1

4) Frac Daddy - Although his preparation trail has been riddled with misses and poor trips, Frac Daddy made a big run last out in the Arkansas Derby to be a late second to Overanalyze. Initially, if someone were to tell me this I would be unimpressed because well, I don’t like Overanalyze in the slightest bit, BUT consider the fact Frac Daddy has been looking amazing working at Churchill AND he has a win there at the track ALONG WITH a close runner-up last year in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes to Uncaptured. His three-year-old year has been largely problematic, but I think we can blame the trip notes on that. With a clear outer post that will keep him out of trouble, this is the number 1 longshot on my list that I think has a shot of running big. He has plenty of speed in his pedigree that has been built to last with front-running Classic winner Skip Away as his damsire, and trainer Ken McPeek has a gift for live longshots. Acceptable odds: 25-1

3) Java’s War - I’ve learned over the years to not take the “little horse” lightly, as in 2010 when I disregarded the mighty mouse known as Santiva who ran full-hearted to a pretty good finish in the Derby. And that was just one mention out of a pile of mentionworthy pint-sized ponies. Java’s War is compact, but beautifully muscled out as I noted back in the Tampa Bay Derby (II), which was his first start back in months as he roared to make a late run at Verrazano before winning the Blue Grass (I). Whether or not turf is his best surface, Java still runs beautifully and Blue Grass runners have a history of doing well in the Derby (hey even Dullahan mustered a 3rd!). His 3rd start back should be even better and I ain’t afraid of no outer post! Charles Fipke also has a respectable breeding program (and yes, I do like Golden Soul too). Acceptable odds: 15-1

2) Itsmyluckyday -Horses who run close to the pace have had a documented note of success in the Kentucky Derby, many of them coming from the Florida preps. Add to this fact that horses that train at Calder Race Course do pretty well for themselves at Churchill Downs, and “Lucky” has been training there up to this race. He was a sullied runner-up to Orb in the Florida Derby, yes, but he was coming up off a 2 month layoff, which is pretty substantial. Lucky has been putting up impressive numbers and races since his two-year-old year and he looks to have gotten better as a three-year-old with the pedigree possibility of running even further.

The fact that I have included a Lawyer Ron son in my top 5 says a lot. Itsmyluckyday will be at big odds compared to how big his ability is. Eddie Plesa seemed pleasant and optimistic about his colt’s chances, and he’s got the speed and mental stability I like to see in a horse going forward into a race of this magnitude. Acceptable odds: 10-1

1) Normandy Invasion - Makes the top spot. I just love how huge and gifted this horse is and I think he is only going to get better when he gets 10 furlongs despite some questions about his weight and worth as a G1 dirt horse. Yes, I realize Alysheba was the last horse to win the Derby with just one prior win, but I’m willing to buck that “history handicap” because Normmy ran some really great losing efforts at 9 furlongs and has been warming up beautifully for his 3rd start back. Chad Brown is a trainer I really enjoy following who has a knack for getting distance out of his horses, and Javier Castellano is one of my top jockeys. It’s been 5 years since Eight Belles fell down for Fox Hill Farms and one year since Javier regrettably sacrificed the ride on Union Rags. He’s dodging Pletcher’s stable on the Derby this year for a horse he believes in. Let’s go, Normmy! Acceptable odds: 12-1

***DERBY HANDICAP CONTEST Week 10 of 10! Please submit your top 3 picks IN ORDER OF FINISH through this submission form (easiest and quickest method), via Tumblr message, or email. You have until 1 hour before the scheduled post time noted below to submit or edit your picks. See the Contest Tab for details.

The Keeneland card for Blue Grass Day looks amazing… Apex, Red Rifle, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint runner-up Shumoos (what!! Haven’t seen her in ages!), Twinspired, Regally Ready, Russian Greek, and a lot of other horses I haven’t seen in a while or have been looking forward to seeing next are going to be racing. But, of course, the highlight of the card and the subject of this post is the Blue Grass Stakes (I) for Kentucky Derby hopefuls, which LUCKY FOR YOU DERBY HANDICAPPERS, has the biggest field it’s had since 1974! Lots of excellent horses from every surface are shipping in for some last-ditch Derby points.

Weather looks pretty clear for the race.

$750,000 Blue Grass Stakes (I) - 3-Year-Olds. 1 1/8 miles on all-weather track at Keeneland. Post Time: Saturday, April 13 at 5:40pm EST.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, All carry 123 lbs, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Dynamic Sky - Joel Rosario, Mark Casse - The Sky Mesa colt takes one more shot at gaining more points to break the bubble in this race after winning the Pasco at 7 furlongs, just missing the 1 1/16 mile Sam F. Davis (III), and running a stale 4th in the Tampa Bay (II). The rail will help him get position should Casse want him up a bit further earlier. He runs well enough on poly with no off-the-board starts and a runner-up in last year’s Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (I).

2) My Name is Michael - Shaun Bridgmohan, Bill Mott - The failed favorite last out in the synthetic Spiral (III), the Macho Uno colt got stuck in traffic and didn’t move much. He broke his maiden on Woodbine’s poly, but hasn’t done much since then. He loses Rosario and gets Bridgmohan.

3) Undrafted - Corey Nakatani, Wesley Ward - The sprinter-type Purim gelding has been 3rd in all 3 of his starts this year all at least stakes-level. He just missed second last out in the Swale (III) at 7 furlongs on dirt, where winner Clearly Now went on to just miss winning the Bay Shore (III). Likely to provide some pace, Undrafted often has little kick at the end of his sprints. His pedigree suggests distance ability and he might have synthetic/turf ability with Dynaformer as his grandsire. I wouldn’t tab him to win, but he could finish up there.

4) Java’s War - Julien Leparoux, Ken McPeek - Impressive running second to Verrazano last out in the Tampa Bay (II), the War Pass colt was 3rd in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (I) and looks strong heading in. Provided there’s some pace, I anticipate Java progressing even further in his second start back and with top Keeneland rider Leparoux in the irons.

5) Palace Malice - Garrett Gomez, Todd Pletcher - Taking one last shot after a poor trip cost him dearly in the Louisiana Derby (II), the Curlin colt makes his poly debut with Garrett Gomez shipping out to ride. Palace Malice’s breeding does have plenty of turf influence with Smart Strike as his grandsire and Breeders’ Cup Turf runner-up Royal Anthem as his damsire, so he could take to poly at that angle. The short 3-week turnaround to make this race is a detractor in his 4th start of the year.

6) Channel Isle - Joe Rocco Jr, D. Wayne Lukas - Uninvolved in a trafficky 7th last out in the Spiral (III), the English Channel colt takes one more shot at earning points on a surface he should like after running 2nd and 3rd last year at Keeneland as a maiden. Looking to get some pace, Channel Isle will be a nice price after he got stuck in the Spiral and hasn’t done much this year. The trade back to poly might benefit him.

7) Uncaptured - Miguel Mena, Mark Casse - Aiming to break the bubble and officially be in the Derby, the Lion Heart colt nearly bested Black Onyx in his first start back in the Spiral (III). His poly record is tops: 4 wins and a second in 6 tries. He should be even better in his follow-up start and on his preferred surface.

8) Charming Kitten - Joe Bravo, Todd Pletcher - Apart from a poor trip in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (I), this Kitten’s Joy colt has never been worse than 3rd and is graded stakes-placed among top company on grass. He went 4-wide last out to finish 2nd behind Rydilluc in the Palm Beach (III) at 9 furlongs. A good value bet for a Pletcher horse, Kittens normally do pretty well on poly and this colt should be no exception.

9) Tesseron - Alan Garcia, Josie Carroll - The Tapit colt comes off a long layoff since February where he finished 4th in a grass-bound Gulfstream allowance won by Spiral (III) winner Black Onyx. He may be even better on poly where he ran 2nd in the Grey Stakes (III) despite a poor start last year. He breezed 6 furlongs at Keeneland in preparation. His morning line (from what I heard) is 50-1, which is probably too long considering his poly experience. Still, he should be decent enough to include in exotics.

10) Footbridge - Corey Lanerie, Eoin Harty - A colt worth talking about shipping in from out west, the Darley-connected son of Street Cry [IRE] has a dreamer’s turf/poly pedigree but will make his poly debut here. He ran second to several good horses (Govenor Charlie, Curly Top) while trying to break his maiden. Taking a stretch-out and trading dirt for poly should help this colt even more. Lanerie is a leading rider here as well.

11) Balance the Books - Javier Castellano, Chad Brown - Trainer Chad Brown substituted this Lemon Drop Kid graded winner for his original entry Noble Tune, suggesting this one might be better suited for the Derby. He debuted last month poorly in the Spiral (III) losing by nearly 20 lengths. Given Brown’s poor poly record and Balance the Books’ faulty sophomore debut on poly, I’m going to skip him for this race.

12) West Hills Giant - Jose Espinoza, John Terranova - The surprise Gotham (III) runner-up ships down to Keeneland for more points. The Frost Giant colt handled turf poorly, and will likely try to be up front early again to try to outrun the field once more. Should improve even more on his 3rd start of the year, but a big question mark is drawn on how he’ll handle Keeneland.

13) Rydilluc - Edgar Prado, Gary Contessa - The Medaglia d’Oro colt was pure eye candy cantering away from the field on the turn to win the Palm Beach (III) for his third straight victory. He is usually forwardly-placed in his races, and keeps Prado. Contessa has little experience training on poly, but Rydilluc did turn in a 7-furlong breeze that he was happy with this week. Should he maintain his grass form here, you better watch out.

14) Fear the Kitten - Rosie Napravnik, Mike Maker - Bred for turf/poly success, the Kitten’s Joy colt broke his maiden here at Keeneland, but made up ground too late in a crowded Spiral Stakes (III) to be 5th. I would not be surprised if the Napravnik-Maker double comes to life again here at Keeneland, outer post or not. Definitely use in exotics.

AE - 15) Divine Ambition - James Graham, Darrin Miller - Cross-entered in the lighter-filled Arkansas Derby (I), the Divine Park colt was 2nd to the excellent Crop Report last out in the Rushaway at Turfway. He had a good blow-out over 4 furlongs to prep here at Keeneland. He led the whole way up until the end of the Rushaway, so he is certainly not without a chance leading on the front end should he make the field.

Top Picks in Order (with fair odds):

1) Java’s War (4-1)

2) Rydullic (3-1)

3) Uncaptured (5-2)

With a tangible pace, there seems to be no reason why we should see the group of favorites here fail with a good trip, but from there it gets hard as nearly everyone here has poly experience or is very likely to favor it well enough. Uncaptured and Java’s War look ready to rocket in their second starts of the year on a surface they both like, though I honestly am preferring Java for his turn-of-foot and proven Keeneland prowess. On talent alone, Rydilluc makes the top list and I’m pinning some high hopes on him to snuff out at least Uncaptured. To complete the super, I’d go with Fear the Kitten or Footbridge.

Value Pick: My Name is Michael will likely be longer than his 15-1 odds after a tough trip canceled him out of the Spiral (III). Fear the Kitten may get overlooked despite his trainer often leading the Keeneland ranks and a clear-cut outer post. Footbridge is apt to be the wiseguy of the field should he prove to like the track.

Ouch, sorry to hear that buddy. Hope he is able to focus a little better now. He has tons of talent.

***DERBY HANDICAP CONTEST Week 9 of 10! Please submit your top 3 picks IN ORDER OF FINISH through this submission form (easiest and quickest method), via Tumblr message, or email. You have until 1 hour before the scheduled post time noted below to submit or edit your picks. See the Contest Tab for details.

Santa Anita’s crowning moment of the spring meet is the Santa Anita Derby (I), which has been good at producing top contenders for the Kentucky Derby, but not so much as winners unless you’re still thinking about last year with I’ll Have Another. Several top horses go to the gate of this 100-point race including 3 Baffert trainees— 2 of which are owned by Gary and Mary West— and a few new runners hoping to get wild-carded into Churchill Downs. Gary Stevens is back this year, and hopes for some success as a 9-time winner of this race with longshot Storm Fighter.

Weather looks near-perfect leading up to Saturday’s race.

$750,000 Santa Anita Derby (I) - 3-Year-Olds. 1 1/8 miles on dirt at Santa Anita Park. Post Time: Saturday, April 6 at 4:00pm PST

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, All carry 122 lbs, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Flashback - Garrett Gomez, Bob Baffert - A top horse in the west, the dappled Tapit beauty gets Gomez again, the rail again, and will likely try to gun to the front again given his running style and rail position. He ran impressive fractions while dueling Goldencents in the San Felipe (II) last out to miss the win. He looked to be dead on his feet after that brave duel, but I wouldn’t dismiss Flashback for that race which setup for him to lose. Gomez gives him an edge and he looks to be training strong for this race.

2) Hear the Ghost - Corey Nakatani, Jerry Hollendorfer - The San Felipe (II) winner and Ghostzapper gelding hopes to go 2-for-2 on Santa Anita’s straits after his most recent win set up perfectly for him to make a late kick into. A lazy worker, I’m hoping he’ll break on the heels of Flashback and cruise off of another speed duel. His super relaxed temperament and improving angle is what makes him an attractive choice.

3) Power Broker - Julien Leparoux, Bob Baffert - Making his sophomore debut after a disappointing no-show performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (I), the handsome Pulpit colt has a lot to prove late in the game. His works have been pretty solid, but he gets no Lasix and Leparoux after a long layoff. His odds would have to be 15-1 or better for me to bite, and they won’t look that way.

4) Tiz a Minister - Joe Talamo, Paul Aguierre - The Ministers Wild Cat colt ran a great race last out to be 3rd in the San Felipe (II), running fast late in the stretch to miss the win by just 1 1/4 lengths. He’s only been off the board once in 10 starts, and appears to be game on Santa Anita’s main. Pretty great speed stats and likely to get some good pace, he’ll be ignored. Like him a lot for a price.

5) Goldencents - Kevin Krigger, Doug O’Neill - The Into Mischief colt got sucked into a wild duel with Flashback to fade to 4th last out in the San Felipe (II). He ran his last race like a sprint/mile and not only lost but bottomed out in the stretch to lose by open lengths. I think it’s time to put Goldencents to rest.

6) Super Ninety Nine - Martin Garcia, Bob Baffert - Once considered a top prospect, the flashy Pulpit colt rolled to win twice this year including the Southwest (III) in a rompfest before disappointing in the Rebel (II) where he got squeezed to be 5th. This is a horse who likes his running room, but I don’t see anyone giving him a problem on the outside. Dare I say, he’s Baffert’s best choice.

7) Summer Exclusive - Edwin Maldonado, Peter Miller - The Exclusive Quality colt made his debut a winning one last month at Santa Anita, running well to win the 6 1/2 furlong contest by a length. I love darkhorses, and while this guy has been working long in his breezes with good speed, this is a tough stretchout for a horse with sprinter pedigree.

8) Storm Fighter - Gary Stevens, Bruce Headley - Another Cali bred by Stormin Fever, the bay colt finally broke his maiden last month on his 3rd try, winning easily by 5 over 1 1/16 miles. Speed figures do not say much nor do his past competition, though he does sport a good “speed on top, distance bottom” pedigree. Likely to be overbet at any rate because of Gary Stevens.

9) Dirty Swagg - Tyler Baze, Myung Kwon Cho - The Street Hero ridgeling comes off a layoff since running 5th in the 1-mile Sham (III) back in January where he was eased. Past two works at Santa Anita look sharp. Given the layoff and the bad transfer to upper-class stakes (he has not won anything since his maiden in September at Del Mar), not giving him much credence.

Top Picks in Order (with fair odds):

1) Hear the Ghost (3-1)

2) Tiz a Minister (6-1)

3) Super Ninety Nine (5-1)

Not a hard race to pick apart. The longshots look deservedly long, but there are a few price picks in here. The biggest question is how fast Flashback and Goldencents are going to want to go— I’m guessing nowhere near as fast as last time, but I do believe they’ll put out a solid pace either way. I like Tiz a Minister more than Flashback, but why is Gomez on the latter after the San Felipe? I don’t know. I can break down who I like from who I don’t like pretty easily, and from there it’s a lot of shuffling. Sticking with “Ghosty” for the win with his closing kick and relaxed style heading into 9F, followed by Tiz A Minister and I’m giving Super Ninety Nine another chance after a poor trip cost him dearly.

Value Pick: Tiz A Minister was very close to winning the San Felipe last out and sports some awesome figures on dirt, and is likely to be ignored for all the Baffert horses and Hear the Ghost. I’ll definitely put money on him should his odds keep drifting up… he’s a ragtag entry with a real shot and distance potential.

***DERBY HANDICAP CONTEST Week 8 of 10! Please submit your top 3 picks IN ORDER OF FINISH through this submission form (easiest and quickest method), via Tumblr message, or email. You have until 1 hour before the scheduled post time noted below to submit or edit your picks. See the Contest Tab for details.

One of my favorite Kentucky Derby prep races, I look forward to the Florida Derby every year no matter who is running. One of top producers of Derby winners and top finishers— particularly in recent years— the race features a rematch between the Holy Bull (III) top two who have not raced since that late January showdown, as well as the Fountain of Youth (II) winner Orb.

Weather looks spotless leading up to the race, so count on Gulfstream to be dry and souped up.

$1 million Florida Derby (I) - 3-Year-Olds. 1 1/8 miles on dirt at Gulfstream Park. Post Time: Saturday, March 30 at 6:19pm EST.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, All carry 122 lbs, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Shanghai Bobby - Rosie Napravnik, Todd Pletcher - Gallant in defeat last out in the Holy Bull (III), it was reckoned that the formerly spotless Harlan’s Holiday colt needed a good first start back, and lost to a track record-breaker in Itsmyluckyday. Breezing like he has always been doing, Bobby will get the advantageous rail but will need to prove he can last 9+ furlongs here. I won’t beat a dead horse repeating what I think of him.

2) Pick of the Litter - Jesus Castanon, Dale Romans - A Kitten’s Joy who has shown some impressive ability out galloping, he just broke his maiden on his second try last month here at Gulfstream, decimating the field to win by more than 7 lengths over 9 furlongs on dirt. I love Csaba, who was another Kitten’s Joy who proved he liked the dirt a bit more than his grassy pedigree suggested. He didn’t beat much in that maiden, but works like a champion and is worth a look breaking outside of Bobby.

3) Itsmyluckyday - Elvis Trujillo, Eddie Plesa Jr - Impressive in his track record-breaking Holy Bull (III) win, the Lawyer Ron colt has an affinity for Florida tracks with back-to-back stakes wins over Gulfstream’s fast main. A threatening pacestalker, there’s little need for me to reintroduce “Lucky”, who ought to be a factor if not a winner in this race.

4) Pontiff - Alan Garcia, Dale Romans - A half brother to the mighty Pulpit sired by Giant’s Causeway, you’d be correct to expect big things from Pontiff judging by pedigree alone. Racing wide the whole way last out in only his second start, he fell short of his first win by a closing neck over 9 furlongs here at Gulfstream, albeit on a sloppy sealed going. Romans hopes to close that gap with improvement and what will hopefully be a fast pace. A steep ascent in class, he’ll at least be interesting to watch.

5) Frac Daddy - Corey Lanerie, Ken McPeek - The Scat Daddy colt suffered a bruising debut in the Holy Bull (III), where he grabbed a quarter and was found to be with a throat injury. I don’t doubt McPeek’s insistence that this is a class horse who got a poor trip. Uncaptured, who barely beat him in the KY Jockey Club Stakes (II), came back to nearly win the Spiral last weekend and Frac Daddy has some pretty good speed where it counts. Excellent, fast breezes show he’s back in shape.

6) Orb - John Velazquez, Shug McGaughey - The Malibu Moon colt blossomed late, storming to back-to-back wins on Gulfstream’s main in a 9-furlong allowance before upsetting Violence in the Fountain of Youth (II). Johnny V will look for a pace meltdown for this closer. I wish I liked him more, but between the Malibu Moon as a sire thing and how perfectly the FOY set up for him I can’t bring myself to rank him above some others here.

7) Indy’s Illusion - Rajiv Maragh, Barclay Tagg - Winless since October, the classy A.P. Indy colt was bested a neck last out by Gunderman going 9 furlongs here at Gulfstream after falling to Orb in a similar event. He strikes me as a horse who needs more time or even more distance. He can’t keep up with too many at the end, otherwise I would like him more.

8) Merit Man - Kent Desormeaux, Robert Hess - A funny spot for a sprinter. The With Distinction Florida-bred colt won the Spectacular Bid Stakes in his first start of the year before steadying in the Hutcheson (II). Tough to acknowledge this sprinter in a 9-furlong event, especially considering the layoff and inability to win at the graded level yet.

9) Are You Kidding Me - Jose Lezcano, Roger Attfield - The Run Away and Hide colt has decided to try dirt for the first time despite being winless in graded events and since August of last year. On the plus side, he’s classy falling short just a nose last out against Noble Tune in a one-mile grass allowance. Attfield says he trains well on dirt, but yes will be tested here and from an outer post, too. I would willingly take him at long odds in anticipation of headlines reading “Are you kidding me?” in yet another unbelievable Derby prep result. I can see it!

10) Narvaez - Paco Lopez, Agustin Bezara - Always excited to see a Holy Bull colt in the gate. Winner of his sophomore debut, he dead-heated with the talented Declan’s Warrior in a 7 1/2 furlong dash on Gulfstream dirt. Not a whole lot to show class-wise apart from that mention, he hasn’t really been tested and this is a pretty sizeable stretch-out.

Top Picks in Order (with acceptable odds):

1) Itsmyluckyday (2-1)

2) Frac Daddy (10-1)

3) Pick of the Litter (15-1)

Best horse here is Itsmyluckyday, who has a tough record here in Florida and has been conditioned to the mint by Plesa for this race. I’m giving Frac Daddy and Ken McPeek a nod on a track that should fancy this colt’s natural speed. I admit it might be a bit premature to take an interest in Pick of the Litter, but he looked very strong running away in the stretch of his last win and lest we forget how much brother Csaba likes Gulfstream. How high you rank Orb and Shanghai Bobby is going to reflect how you think of Violence and his last race where he was hanging on after a hot pace set things up for Orb quite perfectly. I rank Orb 4th… good… but I question how good?

Value Pick: Are You Kidding Me is going to be my fun value bet. I want crazy good odds on him though, like 30-1. Pick of the Litter of course is going to hopefully be good money too…

***DERBY HANDICAP CONTEST Week 7 of 10! Please submit your top 3 picks IN ORDER OF FINISH through this submission form (easiest and quickest method), via Tumblr message, or email. You have until 1 hour before the scheduled post time noted below to submit or edit your picks. See the Contest Tab for details.

Turfway’s Spiral Stakes (III) has quickly become one of the most intriguing Kentucky Derby preps of recent years, with eventual Derby winner Animal Kingdom taking it in 2011 and last year’s victory falling to 4th place finisher Went the Day Well. A mix of turf and dirt horses will line up for the event, which is bound to be an exercise in surface handicapping. This will be the first 9-furlong race we’re doing on the trail.

This is a tough race. Have some Brisnet PPs… but don’t pay too too much attention to the speed figures since many of those races are on turf.

Weather shouldn’t affect Turfway’s all-weather track.

$550,000 Spiral Stakes (III) - 3-Year-Olds. 1 1/8 miles on polytrack at Turfway Park. Post Time: Saturday, March 23 at 5:50pm CST.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, All carry 123 lbs, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Balance the Books - Julien Leparoux, Chad Brown - Saratoga pony! The Lemon Drop Kid colt was a standout as a juvenile on grass, but hasn’t had a start since running a good 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (I). He gets Leparoux after a string of consistent 4-furlong breezes. His G2 win gives him some class, but the rail spot and layoff will probably hurt him on his first trip on poly.

2) Channel Isle - Jon Court, D. Wayne Lukas - English Channel colts I’ve noted become a force out of nowhere, and are often tops on grass and poly. He has poly experience from running at Keeneland and doesn’t look like it’s going to be a problem whatsoever. With powerhouse Lukas training, a good poly experience, and a win at 9 furlongs (on turf at Churchill), he’s an interesting bet and could win this race.

3) Uncaptured - Miguel Mena, Mark Casse - One of the best two-year-olds of last year, the Lion Heart colt returns off a lengthy layoff for his three-year-old debut. He looks ready despite the time off with 5 straight, sharp-looking bullet works visible per Equibase. 6 for 7 starts with 4 being on synthetic, he’ll be a proven force on Turfway’s poly. His victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (II) hasn’t held up well since he took a break, but regardless, he has a proven off-the-pace running style and his form holds up well on synthetic.

4) Fear the Kitten - Rosie Napravnik, Mike Maker - With a 2nd and 3rd this year in graded dirt stakes, the Kitten’s Joy colt leaps back into the picture and onto a surface that should favor him a bit more than dirt. He broke his maiden (albeit in a maiden claimer) on poly and really hasn’t run a bad race yet, and he’s usually not too far from the front. The Napravnik-Maker double makes him a big value play.

5) My Name is Michael - Joel Rosario, Bill Mott - The Macho Uno colt gets turned out for the first time since transferring to Mott. With 4 starts out of 5 on Woodbine’s all-weather, he should take to Turfway’s track like a duck to water after closing phenomenally well— but too late— last out on dirt in the Sam F. Davis (III). The question here is if he’ll get a setup. He has some pretty good speed figures racing on synthetic already, and the Davis proved he’s in shape. Should I mention he beat Clearly Now last year?

6) For Greater Glory - Robby Albarado, Steve Hobby - Never off the board in 5 starts, the Afleet Alex colt some cool distance breeding and looks to improve on poly after a rocky, bumpy 3rd last out in the one-mile Battaglia prep race here at Turfway (won by General Election, place was Giant Finish). He should dig a stretch-out but will get a class test. Certainly worth using in exotics.

7) Mac the Man - Norberto Arroyo Jr, Jeff Greenhill - The pride of Turfway this year, the El Corredor colt is 2-for-2 this year both in Turfway stakes. Greenhill has him fresh for this race after skipping the Battaglia Memorial. Adaptable pace-wise, he is capable of powerful fractions as well as easy-breezy ones and kicks into a drive in the stretch. A miss here at his home base of Turfway would demean his overall worth. He will be competing against real horses here, but has the numbers to run big.

8) General Election - Albin Jimenez, Kellyn Gorder - The winner of the mile-long Battaglia Memorial prep, the Harlan’s Holiday colt showed he liked Turfway after making just one start there, closing to win that race dramatically and by 8-wide. That field included many in this race. Not sure how high or low to rank this one, but the WinStar stable colors certainly help persuade me to not dump on him. 

9) Black Onyx - Joe Bravo, Kelly Breen - A Rock Hard Ten on poly bodes well automatically. This jewel of a colt raced on grass, beating the likes of Crop Report (favored in the Rushaway) and Saint Vigeur. On dirt, he failed in both tries with no real kick. This will be his stakes debut, and while he doesn’t have poly experience, turf ability with decent speed figs and class conquering is a good omen.

10) Giant Finish - Jose Espinoza, Tony Dutrow - I like the first Frost Giants, but even that fact didn’t make me support West Hills Giant, who ran 2nd in the Withers at long, long odds. A few good races, he was 2nd in his poly debut in the Battaglia Memorial. He looked just about done at the end of his recent start, though I credit the bumping that was going on for that. He looks to improve in his 2nd try on poly.

11) Taken by the Storm - Alan Garcia, Ken McPeek - The latest McPeek trainee to hit the Derby preps, the Stormy Atlantic colt is bred for grassy ventures. He won his maiden at Keeneland in a rompfest over 9 furlongs on grass over Channel Isle, and looks fit as can be fresh off an allowance win on Gulfstream’s competitive grass over some strong runners. He keeps Alan Garcia for this shot at the stars. With a bullet registered at Gulfstream, he’s one of the most interesting horses that is due to be a “wiseguy” choice If he does poly just as well as grass he can win this. 

12) Capo Bastone - John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher - Likely to take some money, the Street Boss colt came off a sluggish two-year-old bow to win a Gulfstream dirt allowance last month after trading hands from John Sadler to Todd Pletcher. He has 2 synthetic starts from Del Mar,  including his debut victory over some ponies who won recently  That allowance race has been debated, since the Beyer figure was very low. Add to this skepticism runner-up Offlee Fast’s next race, the Tampa Bay Derby, in which he finished up the track. I don’t understand why this horse has or had a following. Seems very ordinary to me.

Top Picks in Order (plus minimal post-time odds I’d like for wagering):

1) My Name Is Michael (10-1)

2) Mac the Man (5-1)

3) Taken by the Storm (12-1)

Tough race all around with no real standouts or concrete pace. For a poly race, I like to look at the most experienced ponies on the surface as well as their current form. It’s tough to pick one solid horse here, but I did take a liking to My Name Is Michael, who looked pretty good losing with THE MAN Bill Mott training first-time. He’s bound to [hopefully] rocket back on poly 2nd start back. Mac The Man has home field advantage, but he shouldn’t be examined as just another Turfway star; he’s got speed and ability where it counts. Taken by the Storm demands to be taken seriously and looks fit to fire. I also liked Black Onyx while I was handicapping, but don’t trust the class level jump with no poly experience. At least McPeek I know has a good record of training grass-to-poly types.

Value Pick: Most money will land foolishly on Uncaptured, Capo Bastone, and Balance the Books despite their long layoffs, snorish recent performances, etc. D. Wayne Lukas’s Channel Isle will probably get pounded too after his Rebel exacta last weekend. I’ve been preaching Fear the Kitten all year as a value play and he will remain a good play at 8-1 or better with his breeding, Rosie riding, and Turfway leader Maker training. My top 3 should also be at reasonably good odds!