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I almost never agreed with his picks when I first came across his blog, but Reinier has improved to the point where I will actually read his considerations. It wasn’t so much that he’s been winning a good bit lately (though that certainly helped), but he hasn’t been driving me nuts like he used to sounding too much like the DRF. I hate the DRF experts’ methods of handicapping… it feels like all they use to handicap are speed figures and statistics in trying to beat the favorite.

For a while I thought I was giving the surface at Gulfstream too much credit in my handicapping, so when it came to the Donn (I), naturally I eased back and looked at it realistically. With that much speed, a speedball miler type like Graydar would get cooked and be caught late. Even more ridiculous, it was his first stakes attempt, but alas, he went wire-to-wire with my first choice Bourbon Courage coming in for second, overrated Take Charge Indy third. I’m not sure what or who to give credit to with this weird victory other than the weirdness of the whole day. Gulfstream has been so odd this season that a lot of really skilled handicappers have abandoned it. The track has been so unreadable, I don’t bother to play it much now, and I believe the Rainbow 10-cent Pick 6 has been carrying over since Nikki’s Sandcastle won the El Prado. Saturday’s stakes results just really bugged me except for maybe Fort Loudon’s win in the Sprint, but really… the whole day… killed…

[Gulfstream being the typical, Floridian backwards mindset won’t let me embed to share, so head to YouTube to view the race]

Big post-race question: how good is Graydar versus the field? As Reinier would like to point out, the field is scattered at the end, which means hell yes he’s good. As I mentioned back in my original handicapping post, while this was a pretty balanced field with no clear favorite, a lot of the G1 winners had some vices that would cause them to be vulnerable. I knew Flat Out would finish well, but was unlikely to win because this isn’t New York. Bourbon Courage had the most upside and pace setup and came running at Graydar at the end. Pool Play could not catch up, Csaba decided to be closer than I’d like early. Graydar the winner set speedy fractions and had the superior trip on the fast rail and looked like he was still full of run at the end. I think he’s a worthy horse of the big win, but now that’s 3-for-3 at Gulfstream I might venture that he just likes the track a lot. Sending him to a deeper surface that tires him out over a distance like this will work against him. Knowing Pletcher horses, I feel Graydar is a good horse (HEY, he WAS in my top 10 to watch this year post!) but one that could just be on a hot streak. On the plus side, Pletcher is strong in New York and places like Saratoga are kinder to horses that stay towards the front!

How this race could have been won in handicapping:

• Favoring the speed horse, who just missed the mile record at Gulfstream which is known to be a fast track
• Favoring the hot Pletcher connections
• Noting the vulnerable class horses in this field
• Picking the gray? Hahaha, no but really people do this
• Listening to Emily, who favored Graydar in her post

I’ll be making my alternative handicapping post(s) later when I can!

Derby Handicappers, take a week off. The dumb points system doesn’t have any races for you this week anyway. /lame

BUT GOOD NEWS BECAUSE WE HAVE THE DONN HANDICAP (I)! I’ve done pretty well with this race since I began handicapping the ponies… I felt Giant Oak was sitting on a big one in his 2010 upset and I had Hymn Book to win last year. Here’s hoping I can do well again this year. A nice mix of graded winners, improvers, shippers, and dominant Florida runners compose the ten-horse field this year with no clear front-runner.

Weather looks promising enough to ensure a fast main.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Bourbon Courage- Javier Castellano, 117 lbs, Kellyn Gorder - A consistently good runner, the Lion Heart colt ran very well to just miss the place last out in the Clark Handicap (I) while coming in wide down the lane. I find it *very* interesting that this improving closer gets Castellano, who is almost always on a Pletcher horse. Works look very good and he should be ready to go for a top effort and get a favorable setup. Not a fan of the rail of course, though.

2) Flat Out- Joel Rosario, 121 lbs, Bill Mott - A [surprisingly] good 3rd last out in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, the veteran Flatter son is the class of the race with two Jockey Club Gold Cup (I) wins and is one of the better dirt horses overall. Mott has him ready from breezing long at Payson, but I’m not a believer in this one if he’s away from New York. In last year’s Donn he flattened out in the stretch, which he often does when not in NY. He’s a strong off-the-pace runner who has a chance, but he’s never been that dominant.

3) Fast Falcon- Jose Lezcano, 114 lbs, Nick Zito - This Awesome Again colt kept catching my eye last year, and I think he could do better than what he has done last year in really mucky setups. The more ground he gets, the better he is, and as a feather-weighted closer I like him here. Lezcano takes the reins on this one again after a 2nd to Cigar Street in a 1 1/16 mile allowance here. He looks sharp, breezing out a 4-panel breezer in :46 1/5 at Palm Meadows. If he can climb out of his recent bad form and hang back until late, he could get this race.

4) Graydar- Edgar Prado, 114 lbs, Todd Pletcher - The Unbridled’s Song colt needed no time to catch up off his long layoff, setting fire to the Gulfstream main last out to easily break the mile track record. He’s been working well and is 2-for-2 at Gulfstream already. Pletcher will likely send this speedball to the front early and run the field off their feet despite stretching him out another furlong here for the first time. He’s fast, but I think after his record smash no one’s going to leave him alone.

5) Ultimate Eagle- Martin Pedroza, 120 lbs, Michael Pender - The California shipper of the field and a G1 winner, the Mizzen Mast beast is good at the 9 furlong demands of the Donn and will be eager to go to the front early as it is his style. He was a stubborn second by a head last out to G1 winner Coil in the San Pasqual (II) and looks like he’s been well-maintained. Ultimate Eagle is a good horse by his own merits, but I think he is encountering more class here shipping out and will be vulnerable contesting that lead, which at this point looks like it’ll be fast enough to leave him drained.

6) Ducduc- Junior Alvarado, 115 lbs, Shivananda Parbhoo - With speed on top/distance-bottomed breeding, the Langfuhr colt looks to be yet another ambitious hook shot courtesy of the Parbhoo colors.To his credit, he is 2-for-2 at 9 furlongs but moves up in class after being a distant 4th to Csaba in the Harlan’s Holiday and dead-heating for first with Csaba in the Fred Hooper (III). He’s not fast enough to be perfectly honest.

7) Csaba- Luis Saez, 120 lbs, Philip Gleaves - A standout on the Florida circuit is this stately Kitten’s Joy who decided he likes dirt more than turf. He got a great warmup last month with a score in the Hal’s Hope (III) over a mile where he surged late to win over Pool Play and Pants on Fire. He seems to do well with a 3 or 4 week turnaround between races and looks to be an even better 4-year-old. He can adapt to go to the front or rate behind, so he’ll need the most strategic of rides to get there.

8) Take Charge Indy- John Velazquez, 117 lbs, Pat Byrne - The Florida Derby (I)-winning A.P. Indy colt is the most pedigreed of the field and should suffer no problems getting this 9 furlong feat again. He’s rightly fearsome from the improvement angle shortly after running second to Shackleford in the Clark (I) last out while switching to the highly capable Johnny V. He couldn’t be doing better in his breezes— 4 panels in :47 flat!— and while he should improve off that Clark showing he may be vulnerable as a front-runner who is breaking from the outside in a race full of speed already.

9) Pool Play- Miguel Mena, 119 lbs, Mark Casse - The 8-year-old veteran of 34 starts and son of Silver Deputy, Pool Play comes into this race fresh off a neck loss to Csaba in the Hal’s Hope (III) where he went 5 wide to close with a tremendous rush. He is 4 for 7 at this distance. He looked plenty tuned-up in his last start and looks to improve from there in a race that should favor a closer like him.

10) Citrus Kid- Joe Rocco Jr, 117 lbs, John Terranova II - A “shot in the dark” entry by Lemon Drop Kid, the 4-year-old conqueror of El Padrino is another speed horse who will be making just his 6th dirt start here (he has 3 wins in 5 total dirt starts). Works are long and he’s a rare one that has raced at beyond 10 furlongs. I do love a Lemon Drop Kid who has speed to burn, though this one is a bit of a gamble moving this far up in class without beating that much.

Top Picks in Order:

1) Bourbon Courage

2) Flat Out

3) Pool Play

Everything takes a back seat to pace and class in this particular race, but class can be a muddled question since I don’t personally believe in some of the G1 winners. Bourbon Courage has a big chance to steal this race if he can counter that rail post. I’m buckling with Flat Out because I like how Mott often brings his horses back, and there’s few that are in the same overall class category as Flat Out, even though this is Florida. I was about to use Csaba, but then disliked how he’s going a whole additional furlong from his last race so I’ll go with Pool Play who is still a top choice but will have to show he’s no fluke and close into this pace (I like Pool Play and Fast Falcon better at 10+ furlongs).

Value Pick: Csaba will probably get left alone in favor of all the G1 winners here, but does well here in Florida and has the type of recent speed figures to win

Anyway, it was a super great weekend for handicapping. I covered two races instead of just my normal one weekly race: the Clark Handicap (I), a dirt route race for older horses, and the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (II) for two-year-olds. Both resulted in the top picks winning (Shackleford and Uncaptured) and my KYJCS top three all came out in the top three with 2nd and 3rd in shuffled order (race finish: Uncaptured, Frac Daddy, Dewey Square). My Clark trifecta came close to all finishing in the top 3, but second-choice Lunar Victory was 4th. Value pick for the KYJCS, Tesseron, finished a good 4th at about 8-1 odds. YAY I CAN STILL PICK GOOD JUVENILES! Thanks to my turkey dinner being on Friday and forgetting my laptop charger, no, I did not bet. It’s worth noting for the future that according to Trakus figures, the closing Dewey Square went 41 feet more than Uncaptured and 17 more than Frac Daddy, who lost by a neck going 27 feet more than the winner.

Bourbon Courage impressed me the most making a good move in the stretch to miss Shackleford by a length while just missing the place to G1 winner Take Charge Indy (who I honestly don’t… and still don’t… take seriously). It looks as if Bourbon had to counter some tight space trying to shoot the gap between horses. Speed seemed to hold strong over the weekend at Churchill as expected so that gives me all the more reason to expect big things from the Super Derby (II) winner next year. Have a look at the replay:

As we reel in closer to the Kentucky Derby trail (I hardly count most wins from a horse’s two-year-old year as signs for success as a 3-year-old), it’s time to talk limitations and track bias. The perfect example of these two factors occurring simultaneously would be in Saturday’s Cigar Mile (I), where even-money favorite Groupie Doll fell short in a duel with Stay Thirsty. All 5 of Thirsty’s wins occurred on a New York track as did his 5 places and 1 show effort. Outside of New York’s challenging surfaces, the best he could manage was a stale 5th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (I) at Churchill Downs. On the other hand, Groupie Doll has never made a start in New York and clearly loves an easy, fast track while holding most of her wins at 6-7 furlongs. Thirsty, meanwhile, was a stalwart all year and seems to be at his best when given at least 9 furlongs. The Cigar, at 8 furlongs on Aqueduct’s main, seemed to be a balance of two evils.

It did not appear that Groupie Doll was unfit for a stacked race, but the Cigar may  have put too much of a stretch on her limits against a horse who was not only well-rested, but gave it his all on the New York dirt in his career swan song. Losing by a head bob does no injustice to the ‘Doll, but between Stay Thirsty and Flat Out, it’s proven time and again this year to take track bias seriously. With that said, I must also take Overanalyze’s victory in the 9-furlong Remsen (II) lightly; as a Pletcher trainee and one who has won 3 times all in New York but failed as the favorite at Churchill, I’m not about to dive in deep.

A race that takes practically all year to plan out and then a whole week to strategize, I went all-out this year in thinking about the Breeders’ Cup Classic (I). Much easier than last year’s clusterf—k race, there were some definitive toss-outs, a lot of maybes, and a couple of gems in the mix. Form and adaptability to the track bias are probably the two most important factors followed closely by pace, recent works, and raw ability. 

Thanks much to doing my profiles on all 12 entries (plus one with Dullahan who elected to go to the Turf), I was able to whittle things down after the post draw and the final works. My immediate toss-outs I’d be shocked to see win: Handsome Mike and Alpha. Horses I give a mild chance to: Brilliant Speed, Nonios, Flat Out, To Honor and Serve, and Richard’s Kid. From what’s left I was able to pick out 3 I really liked (all I considered strongly for a win) and then decide on the order:

Pick #3: Pool Play - Performs awesomely and is at the top of his game right now coming into the Classic. I was seriously flip-flopping him to win, but I am still concerned about the class and speed jump he’ll face, even as a closer who will likely benefit from the speed. 2-for-2 on dirt, I’m using him!

Pick #2: Game On Dude - Loved him all year and declared shortly after his second place last year in this race that he’d come back next year to win it. He has every chance to win it and Horse of the Year and I think he’s one of the best horses in the country. But can the Dude conquer a tough field at 10 furlongs, which is not his sharpest distance? Who can he sit off of this race to ensure he’s pumped to go in the stretch? After watching the Dude all year, he’s in rarely-seen energetic form. But, I hate picking the chalk and there’s one that I think could beat him…

Pick #1: Fort Larned - A classic-looking horse that is bred to go 10 furlongs, Fort Larned’s my top choice for these reasons and more. He’s established triple-digit Beyers consistently and despite having only dealt with 9 furlongs, his finishes have been strong enough to suggest he’ll do just as well with another. He could sit off of Game On Dude in the early goings and attack late, and he’s got enough speed where it counts to win.

Exotic notes: Ron the Greek could run up late, but I was too concerned to use him in my top 3 because a) he may or may not be off his usual consistency and b) he’s very often far far back. Mucho Macho Man hung in the Woodward, though I do vouch for his conditioner on getting this awesome colt appropriately prepared. To Honor and Serve, Nonios, Richard’s Kid, Flat Out and possibly Brilliant Speed are all considerable in that order.

Value Pick: Fort Larned

Flat Out (FL)

Basics:

(Flatter x Cresta Lil, by Cresta Rider)

• Trainer: Bill Mott (Cigar, Drosselmeyer, Royal Delta)
• Jockey: Joel Rosario
• Owned by: Preston Stables LLC
• Career Record: 19: 6-4-2
• Earnings: $2,042,383

Vital Stats:

• 2012 Record: 5: 1-1-1
• TrueNicks rating: “A+” Variant 5.58
• Highest Equibase Speed Figure of 2012: 121
• Won last prep [1st, Jockey Club Gold Cup (I), by a head]
• 5th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (by some 3-3 1/2 lengths)
• Trainer won last year’s Classic-Ladies Classic double
• Jockey was consistently leading rider at Santa Anita before moving east this year
• Aims to be the first Florida-bred to win the Classic since Skip Away
• No horse older than 5 has ever won the Classic (Flat Out is 6)

Summary: After trading barns to Bill Mott’s as one of last year’s best dirt routers, Flat Out has reached back into his top form recently winning his second consecutive Jockey Club Gold Cup (I).

Prep Schedule: He got off to an odd start trying grass at the start of the year, finishing 12th and last in the turf-bound Ft Lauderdale Stakes (III) at Gulfstream. Returning to dirt, he was wide and responseless running 5th in the Donn (I) and was subsequently transferred to Bill Mott. Taking a 5-month layoff, he was primed in the mile-long Monmouth Cup (II), getting trapped on the inside to run a good 2nd behind Rule and just missed the place in the 9-furlong Whitney (I). He reached his old form once again running on the wet Belmont going to repeat his victory in the 10-furlong Jockey Club Gold Cup (I) by a head over Stay Thirsty.

Running Style: Mid-pack

Pros: Flat Out ran well in last year’s Classic and is arguably in better form right now than he was back then, peaking just perfectly to run an impressive race in the JCGC.

Cons: If there ever was a track-biased horse, Flat Out is a subscriber to that status. Despite never finishing off the board on a New York track, he doesn’t look like the same threatening horse on other tracks.

Final Word: Despite having a lot of clout in winning his last prep and being at peak, Flat Out is the weakest link in Bill Mott’s 3-horse offensive in this race. I just don’t believe he can beat some of these others on a track he probably won’t like.

Often the predecessor to a knockout win in other big route races, the Jockey Club Gold Cup isn’t what it used to be (a 2-mile race on dirt somehow turned into a 10-furlong practice run for Breeders’ Cup Marathoners), but it’s still a million-dollar G1 test for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (I) in November. A “Win and You’re In” for the Classic, this year’s JCGC drew a full field of ten including last year’s champ, a total of 6 G1 winners, and 2 three-year-olds that will be among the first of their class to face older horses in a graded event.

The fast dirt at Old Sandy appears to favor off-the-pace winners in the recent past, with winners in the past twenty years going on to win 4 Breeders’ Cup Classics and be runner-up in another running. The weather in Long Island unfortunately looks to damper things for the second year in a row with a 40-50% chance of rain for both Friday and Saturday. Be sure to factor track conditions and remember, when the track is off, the longshots come out to play.

$1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup (I) - 3-Year-Olds & Up. 1 1/4 miles on dirt at Belmont Park. Post Time: Saturday, September 29 at 5:46pm EST

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Ron the Greek - Jose Lezcano, 126 lbs, Bill Mott - The Full Mandate horse has been having a great year with two G1 wins and a close second in the Whitney (I) after shipping all over the country to run. He has been looking good and should be fresh for the race. Lezcano is a good rail rider, but it’s still a troubling spot to have a favored closer. His record on an off track is surprisingly good with all hitting the board if not winning, and I think Mott was wise in skipping the Woodward to keep this horse fresh. Given a promising pace scenario, he could turn out another winning effort here.

2) Stay Thirsty - Ramon Dominguez, 126 lbs, Todd Pletcher - The Bernardini colt has been the little-engine-that-could since his humble win streak last year as a Travers-winning three-year-old, but has been missing that extra gear for some time. An empty third in last year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup, Thirsty has not won since his Travers turn and while he was 4 lengths back in 5th last out in the Woodward (I), he went wide for much of it and lost the whip at the 1/8 pole. To his slop credit, he has two seconds and a third out of 3 tries. Despite the whip drop, he improved from a 101 Equibase fig in the Suburban to a 112 while carrying 9 additional pounds. He’ll like the distance and the track, but can he get any closer than 2 lengths from the win this year?

3) Ruler On Ice - Alan Garcia, 126 lbs, Kelly Breen - The Belmont-winning son of Roman Ruler hasn’t had the best year running second-fiddle in allowance company, but props are needed for his last start where he ran second to Win Willy by 2 lengths, staying stubborn in his usual stalking position to register a much-improved, career best 119 Equibase figure. We already all know how he does on an off Belmont surface. If it rains, you might want to work Ruler On Ice in there as a well-known and successful stalker. He should draw good odds either way.

4) Hymn Book - John Velazquez, 126 lbs, Claude McGaughey - The Arch gelding has not won since his Donn (I) upset earlier in the year with his next best being a decent second to Mucho Macho Man in the Suburban (II). However, he has endured some rocky and some pretty wide trips as a closer, and the extra furlong should help him. He’s good in the slop, winning on an off track 5 of 9 times, 2 of those wins being at Belmont. A horse who needs a good pace to do well, Hymn Book has little actually riding on this race with no intention right now to ship to the Breeders’ Cup.

5) Fort Larned - Brian Joseph Hernandez, 126 lbs, Ian Wilkes - The speedy E Dubai winner of the Whitney (I) is back for more and another (hopefully) successful stalking trip. His Whitney was won easy and late under a hand ride, suggesting Fort Larned’s got more where that came from and has won in the slop. Some may be too wary of Fort Larned to challenge him on or near the lead, suggesting he might be able to wrap up this race all on his own.

6) Atigun - Mike Smith, 122 lbs, Ken McPeek - The Istan colt was a blocked, late-charging third in the Travers last out, the benefit of the doubt being given to him by trainer McPeek that the colt would prefer the full 10-furlong distance over the easier field he would have faced in the Pennsylvania Derby (II)— which is probably true. Atigun’s best of late has been consistent, but really has to be much better to compete with this crowd. Another horse who should like the distance and need a pace and a personal best.

7) Fast Falcon - Corey Nakatani, 122 lbs, Nick Zito - The Awesome Again colt was a fierce late third in the Travers, and arguably had the best finishing touch out of any other horse in that race. He’s right at home at Belmont with two runner-up efforts against Teeth of the Dog here before. His career best was a low figure and a second placing, and given the possible weather conditions, he is a toss out due to class hike, speed figures, AND a surface he’s shown to not like. Would not be surprised if he scratches.

8) San Pablo - Javier Castellano, 126 lbs, Todd Pletcher - The Jump Start colt hopes to add a third race to his winning streak, both recent races were at 1 1/8 miles won in easy fashion. Likely to be stalking the pace, San Pablo has the stats to get an upset here with 3 wins and 2 seconds in 6 starts this year. Class is a question as is the off-track angle, but the added bonus of Castellano looks good.

9) Flat Out - Joel Rosario, 126 lbs, Bill Mott - The defending champion son of Flatter returns with a new trainer and jockey this year while being a little rough on his old form. He improved sharply in his Whitney performance where he was third by just a head to Ron the Greek, beaten less than 2 lengths by Fort Larned while sitting mid-pace with a wide trip. Flat Out is Mott’s Drosselmeyer this year, and due to his recovered form and distance clout, he’s secretly going to be one of the top horses to beat here and likely good value.

10) Game Ball - Jose Espinoza, 126 lbs, Naipaul Chatterpaul - A recent ex-claimer by Sky Mesa owned and trained by Chatterpaul, Game Ball has been everywhere this year and doesn’t appear to have a niche unless it’s “that horse that probably shouldn’t be here.” I’m wondering even further why he’s here because he didn’t make the stakes nomination list? A career closer, is off track record is fairly good but he lacks the class to make anything happen here, finishing a well-beaten 8th last out in the Sword Dancer (I).

Picks in Order:

1) Ron the Greek

2) Flat Out

3) Fort Larned

The track is likely going to be less than fast, so that makes handicapping this race that much harder to do. Fort Larned looks to be the lone speed here with most of the horses preferring a stalker or closer position behind him. I think he will try to slow down the pace to kill the horses behind him and try to win wire-to-wire. However, Ron the Greek was way too far back in the Whitney and looked awesome for second there. With freshening and an extra furlong, even if he errs again he’s super tough. Ruler On Ice and Flat Out… possibly San Pablo… I wish I could use both. Ruler may still be a bit short though, and I think Mott will have Flat Out tuned up and ready to go here for a much better effort, and he’s got tremendous upside all around. A big psychology factor to consider: who needs this race, and who will want to not go “all out?” Fort Larned and Ron the Greek already have guaranteed berths.

Value Pick: Flat Out

While possibles Shackleford, Successful Dan, and To Honor and Serve are no go, three G1 winners and runners of all strengths and forms are lining the gate of the illustrious Whitney Handicap (I) at Saratoga. The conqueror of Wise Dan and the winner of two G1s this year, Ron the Greek, is poised to add another big win to his bankroll while Hymn Book wishes to make a big closing move. Pletcher and Mott both sport two entries each in the 9-horse field, Pletcher with 2 past wins while Mott is trying for his first.

The winner of this race will get a “free pass” to the Breeders’ Cup Classic (I) in November as part of the “Win and You’re In” incentive. This will be the fourth G1 race I get to catch in person, the first G1 for older horses on dirt, and my very first at Saratoga! The day is looking to get pretty hot and stay sunny.

$750,000 Whitney Invitational Handicap (I) - 3-Year-Olds & Up. 1 1/8 miles on dirt at Saratoga Race Course. Post Time: Saturday, August 4 at 5:45pm EST

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Rule - Joe Bravo, 117 lbs, Todd Pletcher - The Roman Ruler colt returned strong off a 9-month layoff to be victorious in the Monmouth Cup Stakes (II) over a mile. He was the winner of last year’s Birdstone Stakes at Saratoga, also at 1 1/8 miles and is likely to be a pacesetter from his usual running style and inside post. The Winstar colors are always a strong draw, but with low speed figures, the “Pletcher plop” effect, and better pacesetters in this crowd, the three-time graded winner is against the odds.

2) Hunters Bay - Emma Jayne Wilson, 115 lbs, Reade Baker - Stronach-owned, will this be the next Ghostzapper to keep that sire’s hot streak going? Winning 3 times and placing second once this year, Hunters Bay can handle the classic distance, but as expected with a Reade Baker horse, is chiefly a synthetic horse with strong multi-length wins over top company like Pender Harbour, Stately Victor, and Check Your Soul sitting behind the pace. He is 2-for-7 tries on dirt with no stakes experience on the surface. Obviously talented and fleet-footed, but Reade Baker has a lop-sided track record of shipping to American dirt… HOWEVER, before the hate train begins, I liked another Baker trainee who transferred his form well last year… Moonshine Mullin, second in the Jim Dandy (II). Add to this *both* parents were successful in the New York circuit and he’s a half to a dirt stakes runner and the nice grass up ‘n comer Grip Hands. Take him at long odds in your exotics!

3) Caixa Eletronica - Javier Castellano, 116 lbs, Todd Pletcher - The can-do-it-all horse of the bunch, the Arromanches ex-claimer has been on a roll this year winning 3 of 7 races this year including the G2 True North and the G2 Charles Town Classic— one at 6 furlongs, the other at 1 1/8 miles. He was sour in his last start to finish 5th in the 7-furlong James Marvin (II). By my checkup, he has won both attempts at this distance in the past, the best being of course the Charles Town where there were several nice graded winners in the field. Caixa has had some success at Saratoga in the past, but how much can we credit that Charles Town win? The track is just weird, being an odd 7 furlongs around instead of the usual 1 mile, making that race 3 turns. I feel like this is a one-turn horse who just got lucky… but eh! He’s got some nice speed figures, just the class issue…

4) Endorsement - Joel Rosario, 115 lbs, Eoin Harty - The non-Lasix entry, I was hopeful this Distorted Humor colt would shine through in the Suburban (II) last out, where he hesitated in his first off-the-board finish all year. No real excuse was given, and he has one :59 flat bullet work within the past two weeks followed by a more recent, relaxed breeze. Distance is not an issue, and neither is class, so perhaps he just threw a clunker last out after acting up in the paddock. This is not a need-the-lead type, but enjoys being close to the pace where he may have been cooked. He switches jockeys to Joel Rosario, and hopefully will breakthrough. I’m praying for even better odds than in the Suburban (18-1), mwahaha!

5) Trickmeister - Ramon Dominguez, 116 lbs, Rick Dutrow - Off the board just once in his 8-race career, the Proud Citizen speedster was a pace-setting, stubborn third last out in the Suburban (II) and is looking super fit in his fast works. He was a big winner in his lone Saratoga start in 2010 at this distance— a whopping 11 3/4 lengths in the Pleasant Colony Stakes. Dutrow is a New York force and with leading rider Dominguez in the irons, don’t expect the pacesetter Trickmeister to fizzle out. He’s tops in the speed figures and because he’s not expected to win, he’ll get some nice odds.

6) Ron the Greek - Jose Lezcano, 120 lbs, Bill Mott - The favorite of the bunch with two resounding G1 victories under his belt already this year, the Full Mandate son is the one to beat here with a sharp closing move that frequently lands him in the money. He is best as the distances go further, but cannot be left out of the exotics picture. Even when running traffic-laced races, Ron the Greek still often puts in a game effort. After mildly supporting him since the Florida Millions, he has really blossomed under Mott’s care and should at least place, if not win.

7) Flat Out - Rosie Napravnik, 116 lbs, Bill Mott - I never quite warmed up to the Flatter son last year, who won the Suburban (II) with ease and then won the Jockey Club Gold Cup (I). Since then he has swapped trainers for Bill Mott and is in his second start with Rosie Napravnik, who rode him in the Monmouth Cup (II) where he got caught on the inside. He looked plenty fit however, for that one mile race. He gets a ridiculous weight break for a past G1 winner, and was second last year in this race to Tizway. With higher past speed figures and 4 pounds less than Ron the Greek, this Mott entry could barrel his way through.

8) Hymn Book - John Velazquez, 118 lbs, Claude McGaughey - The Arch gelding was pretty awesome as the second choice last out in the Suburban Handicap (II) where he closed very well for second despite being too far behind at the start, supporting the notion that he is back to top form. The second of two G1 winners in the field, Hymn Book should hug the distance and has top jock Johnny V. With Trickmeister returning to help set a good pace with likely pressure, he will have time to catch up to be in the money.

9) Fort Larned - Brian Hernandez, 117 lbs, Ian Wilkes - My past secret weapon, the E Dubai son is only beginning to get the respect he really deserves as a graded winner/track record-setter. He was unchallenged while wiring the Cornhusker (III) last out over Successful Dan and company and has been looking amazing breezing up to this race at Saratoga— a nice bullet in :58 3/5 is hard to knock! He should be right up next to Trickmeister setting the pace in this race and really blossoms at this distance with no prior New York starts.

Top Picks in Order:

1) Hymn Book

2) Ron the Greek

3) Flat Out

4) Trickmeister

G1 races typically offer few real surprises in their end result, and the Whitney should be no different. Tons of speed here even if one horse (mainly Trickmeister) should fail to jet to the lead, leaving the stretch vulnerable to a classy closer. I was super impressed with Hymn Book in his last start, and this time Ron the Greek could get beaten. I’ll favor the good Flat Out for third because of his connections, likely improving factor, and the fact he’s a G1 winner being taken lightly. A 9-furlong veteran with strong connections, great past performances, and speed, Trickmeister fills out the superfecta.

Value Pick: Trickmeister