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Some words about Fort Larned


Fort Larned opening up on Whitney Day 2013

As you may have noticed, I was hesitant to remove Fort Larned as this blog’s avatar. Originally, I planned to change it as soon as I found my Derby horse, but that decision came very late and I felt very indifferent about this year’s three-year-old crop. No colt was worthy of toppling my personally taken photo of Fort Larned from accompanying my posts.

If you were a dope and missed the Stephen Foster Handicap (I) last night, let me tell you, you probably missed one of the year’s best performances. I down right hated anyone who passed off Fort Larned’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (I) win last year as a fluke on a biased track. This horse is gifted, but often is the victim of a few bad days. But when he’s on his oats, you better watch out: he’s the stuff of yesteryear stamina and speed combined.

Yesterday reminded me quite a bit about my first (and only so far) interaction with “Big Ugly,” who stood out like a thumbtack on a chair in the Whitney Handicap (I) post parade last year. The horse looked supremely confident and just happy to be there, his enormous body meeting his big flat head at the crest of two playful, forward-facing ears. He caught my eye earlier in the year winning the Skip Away (III) in a romp, but I figured Ron the Greek was going to be hard to hold off. Fort Larned was unrushed that day, skimming the track just behind Endorsement. I stood near the top of the stretch that day, just a few yards away from the guardian track pony, at the point where he decided to really take off upon getting the lead. There was just no stopping him that day, and the impression lasted long enough to choose him over long-time beloved favorite Game On Dude to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic a few months later, which he did.


I was somewhere around here on Fort Larned’s Whitney day… the track pony was not amused with me trying to take his picture.

I like using Twitter as an information tool, and often times it provides priceless insight about horses that proves useful. Some words from his exercise rider a few days prior:


Yes, I realize I went with Successful Dan anyway, thinking Lopresti’s bay speedball was plenty sharp to spar and possibly eke out a win over the trouble-riddled Big Ugly. I knew one or both would probably be going too fast to comfort Take Charge Indy, who sure enough got too flustered to make an impact worthy of his blue-blooded heritage. But all eyes were on Fort Larned, who won the fight for the lead and from there went on cruise control. I always wish I had the insight to see what the first quarter is like— because most of the time, if I see what the first quarter looks like, I can far more easily pick out the winner based on how fast and how smooth the leader is going. Fort Larned and Brian Hernandez Jr were going a strong clip, opening up on the field, but were going so smoothly it was imminent they were going to be hard to reach. It wasn’t the tautness of the reins that made Ugly look so beautiful going up the backstretch; he just looked so indestructible, furiously pushing against the bit to go farther and faster. Take Charge Indy was struggling to keep pace, and Successful Dan was placed behind a good ways as though hoping Ugly would fold. He didn’t.

Just like in the Whitney, Fort Larned found his best stride when he should have been tired: turning for home. It wasn’t the track or a poor field trailing him that made him look good— he looked like a champion all on his own. I wasn’t at Churchill, but I suspect even those who dumped money on someone else must have been screaming in the stands. He was just that good.

August, come faster!

Ron the Greek Searches for His Third G1 in Whitney

While possibles Shackleford, Successful Dan, and To Honor and Serve are no go, three G1 winners and runners of all strengths and forms are lining the gate of the illustrious Whitney Handicap (I) at Saratoga. The conqueror of Wise Dan and the winner of two G1s this year, Ron the Greek, is poised to add another big win to his bankroll while Hymn Book wishes to make a big closing move. Pletcher and Mott both sport two entries each in the 9-horse field, Pletcher with 2 past wins while Mott is trying for his first.

The winner of this race will get a “free pass” to the Breeders’ Cup Classic (I) in November as part of the “Win and You’re In” incentive. This will be the fourth G1 race I get to catch in person, the first G1 for older horses on dirt, and my very first at Saratoga! The day is looking to get pretty hot and stay sunny.

$750,000 Whitney Invitational Handicap (I) - 3-Year-Olds & Up. 1 1/8 miles on dirt at Saratoga Race Course. Post Time: Saturday, August 4 at 5:45pm EST

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Rule - Joe Bravo, 117 lbs, Todd Pletcher - The Roman Ruler colt returned strong off a 9-month layoff to be victorious in the Monmouth Cup Stakes (II) over a mile. He was the winner of last year’s Birdstone Stakes at Saratoga, also at 1 1/8 miles and is likely to be a pacesetter from his usual running style and inside post. The Winstar colors are always a strong draw, but with low speed figures, the “Pletcher plop” effect, and better pacesetters in this crowd, the three-time graded winner is against the odds.

2) Hunters Bay - Emma Jayne Wilson, 115 lbs, Reade Baker - Stronach-owned, will this be the next Ghostzapper to keep that sire’s hot streak going? Winning 3 times and placing second once this year, Hunters Bay can handle the classic distance, but as expected with a Reade Baker horse, is chiefly a synthetic horse with strong multi-length wins over top company like Pender Harbour, Stately Victor, and Check Your Soul sitting behind the pace. He is 2-for-7 tries on dirt with no stakes experience on the surface. Obviously talented and fleet-footed, but Reade Baker has a lop-sided track record of shipping to American dirt… HOWEVER, before the hate train begins, I liked another Baker trainee who transferred his form well last year… Moonshine Mullin, second in the Jim Dandy (II). Add to this *both* parents were successful in the New York circuit and he’s a half to a dirt stakes runner and the nice grass up ‘n comer Grip Hands. Take him at long odds in your exotics!

3) Caixa Eletronica - Javier Castellano, 116 lbs, Todd Pletcher - The can-do-it-all horse of the bunch, the Arromanches ex-claimer has been on a roll this year winning 3 of 7 races this year including the G2 True North and the G2 Charles Town Classic— one at 6 furlongs, the other at 1 1/8 miles. He was sour in his last start to finish 5th in the 7-furlong James Marvin (II). By my checkup, he has won both attempts at this distance in the past, the best being of course the Charles Town where there were several nice graded winners in the field. Caixa has had some success at Saratoga in the past, but how much can we credit that Charles Town win? The track is just weird, being an odd 7 furlongs around instead of the usual 1 mile, making that race 3 turns. I feel like this is a one-turn horse who just got lucky… but eh! He’s got some nice speed figures, just the class issue…

4) Endorsement - Joel Rosario, 115 lbs, Eoin Harty - The non-Lasix entry, I was hopeful this Distorted Humor colt would shine through in the Suburban (II) last out, where he hesitated in his first off-the-board finish all year. No real excuse was given, and he has one :59 flat bullet work within the past two weeks followed by a more recent, relaxed breeze. Distance is not an issue, and neither is class, so perhaps he just threw a clunker last out after acting up in the paddock. This is not a need-the-lead type, but enjoys being close to the pace where he may have been cooked. He switches jockeys to Joel Rosario, and hopefully will breakthrough. I’m praying for even better odds than in the Suburban (18-1), mwahaha!

5) Trickmeister - Ramon Dominguez, 116 lbs, Rick Dutrow - Off the board just once in his 8-race career, the Proud Citizen speedster was a pace-setting, stubborn third last out in the Suburban (II) and is looking super fit in his fast works. He was a big winner in his lone Saratoga start in 2010 at this distance— a whopping 11 3/4 lengths in the Pleasant Colony Stakes. Dutrow is a New York force and with leading rider Dominguez in the irons, don’t expect the pacesetter Trickmeister to fizzle out. He’s tops in the speed figures and because he’s not expected to win, he’ll get some nice odds.

6) Ron the Greek - Jose Lezcano, 120 lbs, Bill Mott - The favorite of the bunch with two resounding G1 victories under his belt already this year, the Full Mandate son is the one to beat here with a sharp closing move that frequently lands him in the money. He is best as the distances go further, but cannot be left out of the exotics picture. Even when running traffic-laced races, Ron the Greek still often puts in a game effort. After mildly supporting him since the Florida Millions, he has really blossomed under Mott’s care and should at least place, if not win.

7) Flat Out - Rosie Napravnik, 116 lbs, Bill Mott - I never quite warmed up to the Flatter son last year, who won the Suburban (II) with ease and then won the Jockey Club Gold Cup (I). Since then he has swapped trainers for Bill Mott and is in his second start with Rosie Napravnik, who rode him in the Monmouth Cup (II) where he got caught on the inside. He looked plenty fit however, for that one mile race. He gets a ridiculous weight break for a past G1 winner, and was second last year in this race to Tizway. With higher past speed figures and 4 pounds less than Ron the Greek, this Mott entry could barrel his way through.

8) Hymn Book - John Velazquez, 118 lbs, Claude McGaughey - The Arch gelding was pretty awesome as the second choice last out in the Suburban Handicap (II) where he closed very well for second despite being too far behind at the start, supporting the notion that he is back to top form. The second of two G1 winners in the field, Hymn Book should hug the distance and has top jock Johnny V. With Trickmeister returning to help set a good pace with likely pressure, he will have time to catch up to be in the money.

9) Fort Larned - Brian Hernandez, 117 lbs, Ian Wilkes - My past secret weapon, the E Dubai son is only beginning to get the respect he really deserves as a graded winner/track record-setter. He was unchallenged while wiring the Cornhusker (III) last out over Successful Dan and company and has been looking amazing breezing up to this race at Saratoga— a nice bullet in :58 3/5 is hard to knock! He should be right up next to Trickmeister setting the pace in this race and really blossoms at this distance with no prior New York starts.

Top Picks in Order:

1) Hymn Book

2) Ron the Greek

3) Flat Out

4) Trickmeister

G1 races typically offer few real surprises in their end result, and the Whitney should be no different. Tons of speed here even if one horse (mainly Trickmeister) should fail to jet to the lead, leaving the stretch vulnerable to a classy closer. I was super impressed with Hymn Book in his last start, and this time Ron the Greek could get beaten. I’ll favor the good Flat Out for third because of his connections, likely improving factor, and the fact he’s a G1 winner being taken lightly. A 9-furlong veteran with strong connections, great past performances, and speed, Trickmeister fills out the superfecta.

Value Pick: Trickmeister

Weekend Stake Tip: Mucho the Man

Not the best of weekends, but you can’t win ‘em all. The Suburban (II) proved indeed to be a hard race to figure out, though I was glad to see the DRF’s ridiculous pick in Buffum not work out. SWEAR TO GOD, they could say anyone could win and that horse will be bet to death far more than they should have been. Notable victorious wagers were spreads on Game On Dude, Richard’s Kid, and Kettle Corn in the Hollywood Gold Cup (I) and Marketing Mix in the Dance Smartly. Most regrettably, I missed an opportunity I would have definitely taken betting on Winter Memories' sister, La Cloche (Ghostzapper), who won the Voodoo Dancer Stakes at Belmont on Sunday. Aw!

This coming weekend I hope to change things up a bit by making some Pick 3s and Pick 4s, going horizontal instead of vertical. I might try that repeatedly-carried over Belmont Pick 6 on Thursday, who knows!

The best race of the weekend was arguably one of the toughest to handicap. The Suburban Handicap (II) has a storied tradition of producing greats, and this year, it attracted a nice field of 8 with three G1 winners and for the most part, a ton of good value all around. Favorite To Honor and Serve broke better this time from the far outside, and as predicted, speedy Trickmeister set a solid early pace with closer Hymn Book tracking in the rear. I got a little excited that Endorsement (who had ridiculously good odds at 18-1!) was on the verge of a big breakthrough with his pacestalking trip, but unfortunately, the non-Lasix’d entry faded as Hymn Book and Mucho Macho Man surfaced late to pass a defiant Trickmeister. I wonder if Hymn Book had been closer, if the results would have been different, but all in all, Mucho Macho Man ran a deserving winning race as the only Florida-bred in the field, a boy who used to lose his shoes to a man who wins with heart. I’m also wondering what is to be done with Stay Thirsty, who unlike some, I never gave much of a chance. Race replay below

As I mentioned, I had a pretty terrible start to Saturday and after the Suburban fell through for me, I just decided to take a walk, even after looking at some promising odds for Turbo Compressor (at the time 6-1, at post 5-2) in the United Nations Stakes (I). Yes, I was going to bet on him, a rail horse bent on pace-setting a 1 3/8-mile grass race, but I didn’t. Agh, I should have! While Slim Shadey [GB] was debatably the horse to beat at this type of race with a potential upsetter in Arch Support, Turbo Compressor set up cozy fractions while being too far out in front to be caught at the end— a setup far too perfect for him, and in a nice G1 that gives him a free pass into the Breeders’ Cup Turf (I). Now whether Pletcher can keep him fit, that’s another question. Watch race replay here.

Crush of Champions Align in Suburban ‘Cap

A crush of three G1 winners and plenty of Bernardini spam.

Inching closer to yet another titanic Saratoga meet, Met Milers and Whitney hopefuls alike join together to prep for the big grade 1s starting off with the Suburban Handicap (II) at Belmont Park. The race has a nice history of producing powerful classic players including last year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup (I) winner Flat Out. Milers and routers can and have won this race, so it’s just a little tougher to gauge knowing it will take the right strategy to figure out who will come out on top.

The Long Beach Handicap came up a little paltrier than expected, and we all know Game On Dude’s going to win the Gold Cup, so this will be the one and only race this week being handicapped. For this race, I’m looking hard at pace, current form, and skill at one-turn routes.

$350,000 Suburban Handicap (II) - 3-Year-Olds. 1 1/8 miles on dirt at Monmouth Park. Post Time: Sunday, July 8 at

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Stay Thirsty - Javier Castellano, 117 lbs, Todd Pletcher - The Bernardini colt replicated his sire’s Jim Dandy-Travers double last year and took a good long breather after his form went rocky in the fall. He was a well-rated second behind a trim Trickmeister in his only start of the year and loves New York. Always a hard horse to pinpoint, Pletcher says he looks like he did leading up to the Travers last year. Coming off the rail and against some serious contenders, I’m not going to favor him.

1a) Caixa Eletronica - Eddie Castro, 117 lbs, Todd Pletcher - I have a tough time trying to beat the Arromanches son that is part of the Repole one-two punch. A winner across various distances with 3 out of 6 races won this year, while Caixa’s a jack of all trades and master of none, he’s a live longshot here should he keep a gear in reserve.

2) Endorsement - Martin Garcia, 116 lbs, Eoin Harty - The only non-Lasix entry is this up and coming Distorted Humor colt, who has kept a habit of leading the cavalry charge and doing generally well to stay in front. He was third last out in the Pimlico Special (III), beaten just a length. He has finished off the board just once in 9 career starts and has been breezing long and lean. Endorsement should benefit from the presence of the gotta-have-the-lead Trickmeister. Like, like, like from a horseman point of view.

3) Buffum - Rajiv Maragh, 115 lbs, Tom Albertrani - The Godolphin-owned Bernardini lightweight may have fizzled in his stakes attempts, but won his last allowance start at a mile by an overwhelming 8 lengths over some good horses. Looks to be a good router that could take advantage of the pace, but how good is he right now? He has a lot of proven winners to beat here as a non-stakes winner.

4) Hymn Book - Alan Garcia, 118 lbs, Claude McGaughey - I picked this Arch gelding to win last year’s Suburban (2nd) and the Donn (I) and was overjoyed to see him fly out of the clouds in the latter. While he has been spotty lately, there’s ample hope that with a clean trip and a quick pace he could wind up on the front end again. Thanks to news sources, Shug’s gelding probably won’t get as nice a value as I would like to see, but he surely does have decent chances as one of three G1 winners in this field.

5) Trickmeister - Ramon Dominguez, 117 lbs, Rick Dutrow - A force to be reckoned with, the Proud Citizen son was beaten just once when 6th in the Donn Handicap (I), but bounced back to win an overnight stakes over Stay Thirsty, both horses recording nice speed figures. Should Trickmeister settle into an easy pace, he’ll be tough to catch. However, with some other quick horses in here he will face a lot of pressure either way.

6) Mucho Macho Man - Mike Smith, 118 lbs, Kathy Ritvo - The Macho Uno colt is arguably one of the best four-year-olds winning the Gulfstream Sunshine Millions for Florida-breds followed by the Gulfstream Handicap (II). He was no match for Successful Dan in the Alysheba (III), but hung in there for third and has been singing tunes in his works. His fans might hurt his betting value a bit and while I don’t think he’s good enough to win at this point in time, he should be considered in exotics.

7) To Honor and Serve - Jose Lezcano, 120 lbs, Bill Mott - I’m already biased to favor this Bernardini colt to win, having been a huge fan of his since seeing his mug in the Remsen (II). I favored him to win the Met Mile (I) where he chugged home third after being trapped on the rail. From the outside, I see little reason to not consider him a heavy threat as a horse who likes the track and the distance. And have you seen his lightning works?

Top Picks in Order:

1) To Honor and Serve

2) Endorsement

3) Hymn Book

Overall, a tough field to crack, but I really like To Honor and Serve (again) now that he’ll likely have a much cleaner trip. Hymn Book has a lot to prove after some sketchy starts, and there’s a possibility Trickmeister could slow it down as he did in that overnight stakes to beat Stay Thirsty. Endorsement has a great chance all-around to be up there.

Value Pick: Endorsement

Alternation Wants His Fourth Straight in Pimlico Special

Preakness Saturday may be feeling a little light when it comes to its feature race (how many Derby runners are skipping it now?), but the undercard race for older horses at the same distance is as steep in talent as it is in history. The Pimlico Special features the return of 6 stakes winners, a Kentucky Derby runner-up, and a whole lot of handicapping value. It returns for the first time since 2008 and has been won by multiple champions such as Skip Away, Invasor [ARG], Cigar, Real Quiet, and of course, Seabiscuit.

Six graded stakes winners of varying abilities will be stepping it up to see who can last the full 1 3/16 mile distance of the Special.

$300,000 Pimlico Special (III) - 3-Year-Olds & Up. 1 3/16 miles on dirt at Pimlico Racecourse. Post Time: Saturday, May 18 at 5:51pm EST.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Toby’s Corner - Eddie Castro, 118 lbs, Graham Motion - Last year’s Wood Memorial (I) winner, the Bellamy Road colt has had a rocky return to the races after an injury ended his Triple Crown hopes. He was 3rd after a rough trip to Yawanna Twist in the General George (III) carrying 4 additional pounds to the winner, but had a good rebound in the New Orleans (II) behind romping winner Nates Mineshaft and Mission Impazible. He lost that start by nearly 11 lengths, but his works are starting to look up if he can avoid getting pinched at the start. Has never finished off the board.

2) Endorsement - Martin Garcia, 124 lbs, Eoin Harty - No Lasix and fresh off a huge comeback as the winner in the Texas Mile (III), the Distorted Humor son has been a hardy competitor winning 4 races and placing in 3 out of 8 total career starts at various distances and kinds of trips and gets some star power with Garcia in the irons. This will be a big step up class-wise for Endorsement, who has yet to really tangle with graded winners, but he should be improving just enough to want to spring to the front.

3) Cease - Rosie Napravnik, 124 lbs, Albert Stall - Loved this War Chant son last year leading up to the Hawthorne (III), and he’s been strong at those distance races with a 5th in this past BC Marathon (II) and a flawless win in the Maxxam Gold Cup at Sam Houston Park over 1 1/8 miles. Not a fast mover and will need a fast pace to get going.

4) Hymn Book - John Velazquez, 124 lbs, Claude McGaughey - The rallying cry of this Arch gelding rang true when he won the Donn Handicap (I), but did not last as he flattened out to finish 4th in the Oaklawn Handicap (II). Strong, speedy, short works have him ready to fire when needed, and his running style suits this race nicely.

5) Cherokee Artist - Victor Santiago, 118 lbs, John Robb -  The most experienced horse in the field with 34 starts featuring 8 wins, he has won twice this year already over 1 1/16 miles at Laurel Park by 4 lengths and another at Pimlico by 8. He lost the Harrison Memorial Stakes by a short head dueling Eighttofasttocatch, presenting some real class issues.

6) Nehro - Corey Nakatani, 118 lbs, Steve Asmussen - If I made a list of my favorites still running, this Mineshaft colt would be somewhere near the top. A handy winner of his comeback in an allowance, he puttered out in the Oaklawn Handicap (II), going wide early on to finish 6th. His works have remained consistent. A classy horse gets a weight break and a chance to prove himself trying yet again to win his first stakes. It may be just a G3, but Nehro has a lot to get done on the way up.

7) Mission Impazible - Javier Castellano, 118 lbs, Todd Pletcher - Awesome all the way, the gutsy Unbridled’s Song gelding has had two near-misses this year against some of the best: Hymn Book in the Donn Handicap (II) and Nates Mineshaft in the New Orleans Handicap (II) and was second last year to the record-cracking Wise Dan in the Clark (I). He’s started 17 times, but has won only 3 times— thus, making the case for board-hitting. His form so far this year has been excellent, however, with a recent 5-furlong bullet in :59 1/2. Look out!

8) Yawanna Twist - Mike Luzzi, 118 lbs, John Parisella - The Yonaguska son has been having a sharp 2012, winning an allowance by almost 7 lengths and following it up with a strong win in the General George (III). He faded a bit in his last race in the Oaklawn Handicap (II), where he was a pace-pusher who held on for third. With a bullet :59 1/5 work and strong form, he’s definitely worth a look despite having just won his first graded win in February.

9) Alternation - Luis Quinonez, 124 lbs, Donnie Von Hemel - Unstoppable this year, the Distorted Humor colt has been 3-for-3 in stakes races including the Oaklawn Handicap (II) over several members in this field. He would have few excuses here to do poorly with his running style and post position right next to the speedy Yawanna Twist, and has had a really nice blast over Pimlico in :48 3/5.

10) Eighttofasttocatch - Sheldon Russell, 124 lbs, Timothy Keefe - Hitting and missing and losing Rosie Napravnik to Cease, the Not for Love gelding sports an incredible 33 starts with 10 wins. He won his last start by a head over Cherokee Artist in the Harrison E. Johnson Memorial, which may have been the kiss of death with the extra pounds as well as the far outside post. Bound to be the pacemaker who will try to outlast the field.

Top Picks in Order:

1) Mission Impazible

2) Alternation

3) Hymn Book

4) Toby’s Corner

Value Pick(s): Toby’s Corner, Yawanna Twist

Racing Beat: April 29


I always get teary-eyed during the singing of “My Old Kentucky Home” at the Derby and even “New York, New York” at the Belmont. They might be tears of anguish with the national anthem being sung by Mary J. Blige. I guess it could be worse… Taylor Swift could be singing, but since it’s not about a bad breakup she quite reasonably cannot commit.

Havre de Grace is for sale after her retirement announcement, but I guess I should probably buy a car before I think about a Ferrari.

Evidence why works matter: Mamma Kimbo did not handle the Churchill dirt well in a recent work over the surface, effectively being slated for Black-Eyed Susan Day at Pimlico while skipping the Oaks. Not everypony’s going to like that track.

First there were Facebook fan pages for individual racehorses… now, they have Twitters popping up everywhere. If they only knew how some humans were killing their dignities on the interwebs… TEEHEE I RAN FIVE FURLONGS IN 1:00 3/5!

Black Caviar does one better than Zenyatta and is now undefeated in 20 starts! Is there anyone out there that can keep up with her? Oh yeah… that one they have in England whose name rhymes with cankle

To Honor and Serve and Tackleberry for the Met Mile (I), please.

Nothing makes me feel better than seeing a stakes won with a barn-wide anti-Lasix policy. Congrats are due to Eoin Harty and Bill Casner’s Endorsement in the Texas Mile (III), who came back from a condylar fracture and a long layoff to win like a true champion.

I keep hearing how good every entry has been looking in the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby, looks-wise and works-wise. COME ON, IT’S TIME FOR SOMEONE TO LOOK BAD NOW… even the speed horse Trinniberg is hard to knock!

Time for a quick rewind: from my final thoughts and predictions about last year’s Kentucky Derby winner…

Read about the rest of the field here. I will likely not have as many red down arrows for this year’s field!

I’d like to have an open discussion with some of the deranged horse racing fans that submit things to the horse racing confessions blog on here… and by the way, those who wanted me to do a video I haven’t had time to shoot (plus the weather’s been awful) but I DO have an enormous list of things that would go in it if and when I do it.

And last but not least is the Tweet O’ the Week, which doubles as the Butt of the Week, from HRN’s Matt Shifman. Just look at the hindquarters on To Honor and Serve! Boom!

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Tracks visited: Calder, Saratoga, Belmont, Suffolk, Aqueduct.

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