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Spicer Cub. By now you should know his name. I wish Pimlico had Trakus installed so we could have seen how much more ground he ran versus the winner.

Looks like Departing is now a gelding, too.

I canceled a bet I had on 5-2 Apex yesterday at Keeneland… too many horses looked rarin’ to go that day even though he had a turf pedigree. Kind of glad, he finished a trafficked 11th. The other two I liked, #4 Corinthian Summer and #11 Won’tyoualwayswonder, finished 3rd and 9th respectively.

I’m going to have a tough time picking out a horse to single-handedly gush over come the first Saturday of May. I like several about the same right now. Perhaps I need another 3am groveling session like I did for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

I was watching Thor the other day for the first time and couldn’t help but think of the horse Frost Giant.

Jose Lezcano and Wise Dan = Unstoppable on the [blue] grass?

Eblouissante is set to ship to New York. TRULY THE BEST STATE IN THE COUNTRY FOR HORSE RACING.

I know he’s a Pletcher trainee, but I am still loving Red Rifle, who went 2-for-2 winning by 2 at Keeneland yesterday. Not-so-secretly hoping to see him come to Belmont or Saratoga… he’s such a stunner with that bit of silver in his tail.

I understand why people like to thumb through and make picks at Keeneland yearling sales as a hobby, but why pat yourself on the back if your picks demand huge sales figures? I would think it would be a bad thing if they sold for crazy money that obviously means a poor investment if a lot of people are chasing the same horse. Better to pick a middle range horse that grows up to do well for whomever bought it. That would be bloodstock agent skill… see something others missed!

Unbridled’s Song as sire, Todd Pletcher as trainer, speed to burn, injured before… noooo, I never saw Graydar’s ankle chip coming!

I strongly feel that horse racing fans never truly have a weekend off, even if they work a normal 5-day work week, because you spend your whole day Saturday watching and handicapping and then maybe Sunday you get a break but… yeah… horse racing is like a second job!

Stay Thirsty’s 4-year-old half brother Bocelli (by Mr. Greeley) is getting close to a start with John Shirreffs training. I knew of a Morgan named Bocelli… kind of went straight to stud:

I kind of can’t wait for the day when I can mass-post “GUESS WHAT EVERYONE I CLAIMED A RACEHORSE!” and not give a damn about the ensuing “ermahgerd, so irresponsible!” gossip that follows. I’ll pick grass and put it in a basket to give to said claimer, whisper things to it like I did when I first forayed into gardening, and it will win like crazy!

Speaking of Morgans, runner-up and stablemate to Mizdirection in the Las Cienagas Handicap was Schiaparelli, the dam of one of my favorite Morgans Mizrahi. Maybe this could be a new handicapping angle!

From the pages of his family album, the dam of Java’s War, Java [GB], just foaled a Not Bourbon filly last month in France and is booked to Jersey Town next. Woop!

Tweet o’ the Week

Wow, a ton of awesome horses were born at the tail end of March/April 1… Man o’ War, Secretariat, Drosselmeyer, Wise Dan, I’ll Have Another, Zenyatta… HANDICAPPING BIAS!

Darley acquires an interest in Animal Kingdom. Damn, next thing you know Coolmore will sprout a clue and buy one too! WAIT, THAT WAS ONLY A DREAM!

I wasn’t planning on buying a house anytime soon, nor a building, but really c’mon…

I know I’m a  bit behind the ball on boasting and it probably isn’t worth it, but while I bombed heart-picking most of the Dubai card, my random love for Planteur [IRE] wasn’t unfounded. One of the lowest Timeform ratings and the horse still got third.

The Oaks fillies are so much better than the Derby colts this year that it pains me to think none of them can enter the Derby without official points. LAME!

True story: I was yelling at my computer yesterday watching Normandy Invasion. C’MON C’MON GET SECOND GET SECOND YOU NEED AT LEAST SECOND YEEEEEEEESSSSSSS! I’ve never been so pleased for a horse to get second.

“One more jump, and I could have won the race. His gallop out was amazing.” - Javier Castellano on Normandy Invasion. It’s like he read my article! YES I AGREE WITH YOU JAVI!

Orb or Verrazano for Johnny V? Is it bad I want him to pick Verrazano because if he picked Orb over the undefeated horse it would ruin Orb’s odds?

Calder’s back on! Hopefully it won’t spurt screwy results on a daily basis like Gulfstream.

I hope Code West gets an “in” for the Derby next, since he too is on the bubble. I thought he was a pretty good horse.

Blind Luck and Giant’s Causeway sitting in a tree… with Winter Memories and Street Cry [IRE]. #horselove

Realizing the other day that Funny Cide’s Derby win was 10 years ago. OH MY GOD OLD.

I’m sorry but I still can’t see myself rooting for Goldencents. Never had the feels for him, he beat out Bern Identity in the Delta Jackpot (III), and his jockey’s post-San Felipe tantrum is still crisp in my memory.

Tweet o’ the Week

I started my homework last month about who the Mosses should send Zenyatta to next if all goes well. Last year I had a top 5 list, and Zenyatta did indeed go to Tapit like I requested! Of course, at this stage it would appear the Mosses are favoring “trendy” sires, but who knows, that could easily change this year with foal #3. I have done a little digging and tried to find new sire picks that are feasible (i.e. Empire Maker and Henrythenavigator will be out of the running, sadly, because they are not in North America). Here it goes!:

Henrythenavigator - Over in Ireland. Sigh.

1) Lemon Drop Kid - A classic winner with a Belmont (I) victory and a G1 winner at ages 2, 3, and 4, LDK is both a really good-looking stallion, an excellent racehorse, and a phenomenal sire with graded stakes winners on every surface type. I’ve always greatly appreciated Kingmambo (and the rest of Miesque’s family). Fee $35,000 (TrueNicks Rating: A)

2) Bullet Train [GB] - Yep, going with a newbie here, but really it’s hard to argue against the spell-binding presence of Frankel’s 3/4 brother, newly-relocated to Kentucky. Should Zenyatta’s connections suddenly start favoring a great turf horse, Bullet Train is basically a perfect match: speed, great bloodlines, and strong classic ability. Fee $7,500 (TrueNicks Rating A+)

3) Lonhro [AUS] - While new to the U.S. and unconventional, it’s hard to knock the black beauty Lonhro who ran an impressive 35 times down under, winning 26 times with 11 Group 1 titles. A truly underrated freak of nature, he represents Australia’s finest with son Pierro taking much attention last year as a sizzling two-year-old. Fee $30,000 (TrueNicks Rating: B)

4) Cape Blanco [IRE] - The first foal crop from the G1-winning titan looks amazing, and I gush at the possibilities. Undefeated at the age of 2 and a G1 winner at 3 and 4, the stunning chestnut son of Galileo [IRE] offers serious substance and distance ability with wins at 12 furlongs. Fee $17,500 (TrueNicks Rating: A)

5) Smart Strike - Grass, poly, dirt, no matter! Smart Strike always seems to have a special one out of every crop: My Miss Aurelia, Salty Strike, Centre Court, Dynamic Strike, Lookin At Lucky, Curlin, English Channel Smart Bid, Never Retreat, blah blah blah. It’s a no brainer. Get Z in before he gets too old, please! Fee $85,000 (TrueNicks Rating: B)

This is all a wish list, and I realize from looking it over that most of these options probably won’t ever happen because of American racing prioritizing dirt over grass. As for what I think will most likely happen, I think the Mosses will go with Medaglia d’Oro, Distorted Humor, or another A.P. Indy boy. I would be surprised if they picked a brand new stallion, but it’s always possible they might go with someone with a lot of early ability and speed like Bodemeister.

After weeks of trying to beat a lot of Pletchers and other top favorites and getting really weird results, it’s only natural that I start questioning my own methods once again. I liked Revolutionary from the word go, but barred myself from liking Orb too much originally because I liked Revolutionary and Violence already and good gosh, why would I like 3 horses all with cool names?! Orb got the boot, I guess, because he was a Malibu Moon. Malibu Moons are good or not good, and it’s hard to find one that is good for very long. I’ve been on the McGaughey-Phipps double bandwagon since Hymn Book won the Donn (I) for me though, so he does have some street cred.

Malibu Moon is a good-looking guy by the undisputed legend A.P. Indy and out of a pretty nice Mr. Prospector mare. He reminds me of Pulpit in many ways, though I found Pulpit to be more likeable, namely because he actually did something on the track before going to stud. Malibu Moon raced twice, breaking his maiden on his second try running 5 furlongs. Appropriately, he is known for passing on precocious ability, as seen with Declan’s Moon (G1 Hollywood Futurity winner & graded sprinter), Kauai Katie (very fast, precocious 3-year-old apt to stick to sprints), Devil May Care (precocious gal who broke the mold, winning the 9-furlong Coaching Club), Prospective (winner of the 1 1/16 mile Tampa Bay Derby), Eden’s Moon (G1 Las Virgenes winner), and Ask the Moon (back-to-back G1 winner at routes).

His dam side is actually what makes him the most likable to me, out of Lady Liberty, a daughter of classic winner Unbridled, whose Fappiano lineage has been on fire in the winner’s circle. Lady Liberty ran in some nice graded events without doing much, though her dam Mesabi Maiden (by Cox’s Ridge) was a winner of the Black-Eyed Susan (II) at 9 furlongs. With all this in mind, Claiborne is looking pretty crafty: did they mix Malibu Moon’s tendency to pass on speed and early ability (on a classic backdrop of A.P. Indy/Mr. Prospector) with a mare capable of going far?

Conformation-wise, Orb is not as impressive as other horses on the trail. In fact, he reminds me of Prospective a bit. There is nothing overly “wow” about Orb just from looking at a picture, but if you watched the Florida Derby post parade I’m sure you noticed his attitude. What makes Orb a convincing sell is his attitude. Happy horses win races, and that is part of what I personally hunt for when “paddock picking.” Orb even has his ears forward in the above image winning the Florida Derby.

I wrote this piece partly to chew apart the growing “real contender” list and to really get down and inspect Orb after his final prep race. I wrote before the Florida Derby that he had no excuse to lose it with Merit Man and Shanghai Bobby apt to give the race some pace, and he showed an all-new dimension by running swiftly at the end despite some pretty pokey fractions. The win streak he has going at Gulfstream doesn’t really concern me as to whether or not he can transfer that to Churchill, and in fact I don’t credit it towards Gulfstream, which naturally favors up-front runners anyway. I think Orb is a horse that needed time to “get it” and now that he does, he’s just learning more as he goes along. And with that said, Orb earns a place above many others on my Derby list.

HAPPY EASTER EVERYPONY! Here’s to hoping I can cash out big-time on post-Easter candy sales this year. I’ll be up early tomorrow anyway.

I heard a number of good things about the sale-topping $1.6 million Bernardini colt at Fasig-Tipton last weekend. Regardless, he’s apt to be another regret for Robert LaPenta. DID YOU LEARN NOTHING FROM BUYING EASTER GIFT? (Although that one only cost him $90k)

I am just about all moved back in at this point, but I have rational fears that my dad will “clean” for me in here so I put a sign on the Derby Handicap prizes that says “DO NOT TOUCH.” What happens? He moves the box out of my room like he was going to do something to it! Yes I just about flipped out on him. Yes, this is the main reason why I can’t wait for the contest to be over. NOTHING IS SAFE HERE!

I ship Black Caviar and Animal Kingdom.

Awesome Feather has a new full brother! EEEEEE

It’s April tomorrow and you know what that means… one more month until May! Oh, and the Derby Dozen profiles. Gotta keep that tradition rolling. I’m thinking Orb will be the first of the top 12 I will cover.

Believe it or not, but yesterday I was actually rooting AGAINST Bourbon Courage in the Nola ‘Cap. I had put down Mark Valeski as my pick to beat Graydar, which he almost did dammit. On that note, I can’t believe the butthead handicappers that were dissing Marky as being “way too slow” to be a factor.

The amount of grr that emanated from my vocal cords when Dubai played the Australia anthem instead of the American one after Animal Kingdom’s win.

My laugh echoed across the seas when He’s Had Enough was sent off at 8-1 odds in the UAE Derby. Time to pack up the tack, people. He’s had enough.

Unlimited Budget vs. Midnight Lucky vs. Dreaming of Julia. This is going to be one delish Oaks.

Part of me is glad I don’t have to handicap the Wood Memorial this week for the Derby Handicap. Verrazano is the big horse of the race and I want to beat him so badly but I don’t know! But Normandy Invasion is still looking scary good… Vyjack too…

There’s a gray two-year-old filly over at Woodbine named No Soup for You (by Alphabet Soup). *adds to virtual stable*

Tweet o’ the Week

Glad to know I got to see Agave Kiss race before she was retired. I really liked watching her races online, a filly with a lot of power. She’s booked to Tapit for her first foal.

ALSO GLAD: moody sprinter Hamazing Destiny.

Sounds like I might get to see the beautiful Cerro [IRE] in the Belmont Stakes this year!

Someone needs to be at the track all the time to photograph all these horses. I hate watching a big stakes and having no idea how pretty some of these underdog losers and victors are until afterward. Why are only famous ponies photographed? :/ Anyway, Black Onyx is pretty.

Orb won’t have many excuses to lose the Florida Derby with Merit Man setting the pace.

Getting people to love and watch horse racing is like getting people to love and actually read books. “TRY IT YOU’LL LOVE IT!… No you ought to try it this way… it gets better after the first hundred pages!”

Pure poetry in race calling: “Brutal power wrapped in an elegant machine!” Perfect for Black Caviar.

Something that drove me crazy this week: “handicappers” dismissing certain horses on the Derby trail because they took 4 or 5 times to break their maiden. Hello? Ever heard of late bloomers? Oxbow needed time to get good. I don’t recall who said it specifically.

The 2013 running of the Bourbonette Oaks will live in infamy preceded by “Fathead.” No.

I used Twilight Eclipse and Excaper in the Kent Stakes (III) last year, so naturally I was miffed when he decided to win in world record time yesterday.

Count on me to not want one of my most beloved Derby contenders from last year, Sky Kingdom, to win over Calidioscopio [ARG] yesterday. His Marathon win was one of the most exciting (and profitable) for me personally.

A full sibling to Zo Impressive is in the works! Zoftig is back in foal to Hard Spun for 2014! I miss “Zo.”

Tweet o’ the Week:

Conformation buffs, unite! Normandy Invasion was a big “downhill” yearling.

Sure Todd Pletcher has an excellent shot at winning the Derby this year. He always seems to have the best two and three-year-olds leading up to the first Saturday in May, and Verrazano looks to be the best horse in his barn. The hunk of muscle by More Than Ready is following the same path as past Pletchers Super Saver and Bluegrass Cat running in—and winning— the Tampa Bay Derby (II) in style.

But, where there is a favorite there is often a price. Past readers of my blathering know that while I acknowledge Verrazano’s brilliance, I do not like him as a Derby horse. I do however like Normandy Invasion a great deal.

Naysayers (neighsayers?) and doubters have showed up already to shake their heads at Normandy’s three-year-old debut in the wonky Risen Star (II), which was won by Ive Struck a Nerve at 135-1. The race was very weird, with many top horses suffering bad trips or off performances, and the winner certainly took advantage of a fast pace to lock up the win.

Examining the race again, Normandy stumbled out of the gate and was off to an awkward start. The first turn, like many of this year’s preps, was crowded and hectic, forcing him 5-wide to an even greater disadvantage. He was 6 or 7 paths wide by the time he hit his stride in the stretch, and by then it was too late. A snap shot of his loss margin:

Really, it wasn’t a bad loss, but a bad trip. Racing wisdom also dictates that the gallop out is pivotal, especially for horses who look to stretch out in the future. Let’s look at the Risen Star gallop out:

Looks like he was rolling pretty well late! Both Normandy and the #10 horse Oxbow ran better than the winner in the gallop-out, and Oxbow ran a winning race next out in the Rebel. I consider Code West and Oxbow to be pretty good horses at minimum, so with this and a few other things, I think Chad Brown can bring home a great contender at Aqueduct in the coming weeks. Watch the full Risen Star race

Key points:

• Sire Tapit won the Wood Memorial.
• Off a long layoff, Normandy Invasion lost the Risen Star, which was won with a BRIS speed figure of 99. His close Remsen runner-up was a 104, and his maiden win before that was a 92. He could very well power off that loss.
• The Risen Star is beginning to look even wonkier and dismissable after Oxbow’s head loss in the Rebel Stakes (II) this past weekend. Oxbow was the pacesetter for the Risen Star and went wide like many others did into the first turn. Both Normandy and Oxbow broke from disadvantaged outer posts.
• Jockey switch from Jose Lezcano to Javier Castellano, a very wise move indeed.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day all! If you’re Irish, might I recommend betting today?

I get that he has a win streak going, but who on earth would supposedly offer $3 million for Vyjack? He’s a gelding and his trainer just got suspended for not one, but two doping offenses. I would have taken the offer.

The new Derby Hopefuls tee is being designed right now, with some 140 horses making the cut to have their name on the final product. I would have thought by now I would have a better idea of what horse(s) to illustrate, but I don’t. This may take a little longer…

Remember Champ Pegasus? He’s back at Santa Anita.

Yup, I pretty much called Verrazano going to the Wood… Pletcher is dividing and conquering with his surviving company. Unfortunately I am unlikely able to go because of work… I would be showing up for Normandy Invasion.

I hope to talk about the Dubai World Cup in a soonish post. I think Dullahan has a decent shot, but this year I find myself again liking Planteur [IRE]. We shall see.

I didn’t pay much attention to the Azeri (III) yesterday, and I’m sad now that I didn’t. Tiz Miz Sue was too serious a horse to go off at 9-1.

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Perfect Shirl (a daughter of Perfect Soul [IRE]) will be bred to More Than Ready for her first foal. I’ll be excited for that one to hit the grass.

I had Zaikov down on the February Derby Top 10, but removed him when the list of interesting prospects was getting too long. I eliminated a few others from that shortlist, mainly because they hadn’t raced yet.

In my down time, I’ve finally gotten around to watching Jockeys (on Netflix). The show premiered on Animal Planet while I was away at school and didn’t have a TV or anything. Crazy how much has happened since those episodes were filmed.

Salty Strike and Medaglia d’Oro… UNF! What’s up with some of my fave mares going to dis guy? (Better choice than Bernardini at any rate)

Maybe I should avoid liking horses until Derby Day. They all seem to throw in the towel. Here’s hoping Hear the Ghost doesn’t let me down. Glad to see Oxbow was still in the mix yesterday. Den’s Legacy could be a force, too. All three I have liked for a good while. A few others I have an eyeball on, including Departing.

Joyful Victory finally snags a G1. Crazy things do happen.

My girlfriend Dayatthespa is recovering from a cut on her tendon that was bad enough to need stitches. Come back soon to me, baby.

[Sad to say no “Tweet o’ the Week” picked out… icky schedule…]

I think it was Reinier I was talking to when I said I wouldn’t mind that much if Verrazano won the Tampa Bay Derby (II) because it would mean getting some awesome odds when he loses. I’m not as adamant that he’s going to flunk 10 furlongs as I am with Shanghai Bobby, but I’m still pretty sure that Verrazano has a limit. If it’s not a distance limit, it’s a time limit with Pletcher behind the wheel. Sad but true feelings of mine on the matter. His win and 103 Beyer (lol Beyers!) was nonetheless deserved and he outclassed everyone in his first stakes and two-turn trip.

Thinking something went very wrong with Purple Egg for him to suddenly stop like that as my first choice. Second choice Dynamic Sky finished third (I do not think he’ll be a serious threat in the Derby, his stretch drive just lacks maturity and focus) and third choice Java’s War made me swell with pride diving into the game in the stretch like that. THAT is a 10 furlong horse! Kenny McPeek has another live wire hiding out as an underdog!

Watching this race, Purple Egg is definitely being choked back but then just falls… Java’s War snakes his way up front (I saw him coming too and freaked!)… Verrazano plays with Falling Sky. Definitely a good race. Not as good as Believe You Can, though. I love her.

I bet on one race on Saturday— my first bet in quite a while— which just had to be the eventful Gulfstream turf race where there was a 3-jockey crash. I put a $2 WP on Boss Man, who lost rider Luis Saez along with two other horses, and unfortunately Saez sustained the most hurt from the accident. I saved face with a blind show bet on Autobahn Legend, who was 50-1 and ran 3rd ($13.80 for $2 show return). I have this thing for Live Oak Plantation silks plus Graham Motion was training so… yes! Earlier the same day I nearly bet on Jakkalberry (5-1) who won at Dubai, but didn’t because I hadn’t handicapped the race. Feels sometimes CAN cash in!

Maybe I should do an alternative experiment on “feels” betting hahaha. I’m sorry guys for going so slowly with the experiments… I am so eager to try most of them but my spring break just got bulldozed and excuses, excuses, excuses.

Rockingham Park in New Hampshire (on the border with Massachusetts) is favored to take in a gambling license should legislation for expanded gambling pass. Millennium Gaming of Las Vegas aims to bring Thoroughbred OR Standardbred horse racing back should everything fall into place. GOOD, WE NEED MOAR PONIES IN NEW ENGLAND.

“Jockeys” is on Netflix? *finally gets to watch*

Fort Larned’s barn nickname is “Big Ugly” haha. That one I didn’t have to read much into to find out why… he’s so recognizable with his big flat face at the track, but as you can tell by my icon picture he’s so happy to be there it’s hard not to like him.

Barretts sales inspires more eye-rolling as Coolmore dumps hundreds of thousands. One top-seller is a Malibu Moon. You won’t catch me investing that much in a two-year-old, never mind a Malibu Moon.

Someone needs to buy me a green screen. I want to “predict” winners like a meteorologist predicts the weather. CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF UPSET IN KENTUCKY THIS SATURDAY… damn, that’s a pretty good idea *saves* *goes to Ebay* Honestly it’s not like I have to be that accurate.

Ive Struck a Nerve is off the Derby trail with an injured ankle. I don’t feel any different.

Florida people are nuts for not taking advantage of the Gulfstream trackside buffet breakfast… IT’S $8. I paid something like $16.99 for the Saratoga one… not that I regret because I don’t but just pointing out the bargains going on!

I think Golden Soul could win the Belmont.

*GASP* I also liked Hear the Ghost in the paddock prior to his maiden win where he was an also-eligible at ridic odds!

Beholder’s madre Leslie’s Lady, also the dam of red-hot freshman sire Into Mischief (sire of Goldencents and Vyjack), will be bred this year to Eskendereya. #unf

Coil now has a half sister by Smart Strike!

Next race I’m really interested in seeing… the Spiral, actually. I’m really surprising myself this year.

Tweet o’ the Week: Havre de Grace’s newest little sis has a moon instead of a star marking…