(Home)

Ok, so I got out of class early today but decided to derp around and nap. The Dubai Super Saturday is tomorrow, and I have elected to say “f—k it” to handicapping because hey, I’m not that great at synthetic (or maybe I am and I just don’t know it) and I’m certainly lost when it comes to international racing. SO, here are my rooting interests for all the races tomorrow. You guys can find the complete list of entries and post times (in EDT for my lazy American convenience!) over here on BloodHorse.

$1 million Godolphin Mile on Tapeta

Master of Hounds!

$1 million Dubai Gold Cup - 2 miles on turf

Averroes! (When in doubt, root for a cute chestnut)

$2 million UAE Derby - 1 1/4 miles on Tapeta

Elleval because BLAZE

$1 million Al Quoz Sprint - 5 furlongs on turf

Varsity, have to go with a Clement horse

$2 million Golden Shaheen - 6 furlongs on Tapeta

Oh gee I don’t know… TRINNIBERG!

$5 million Dubai Duty Free - 1 1/8 miles on turf

Little Mike will have my strongest interests, but another victory for Ocean Park [NZ] would be swell

$5 million Dubai Sheema Classic - 1 1/2 miles on turf

Shareta!

$10 million Dubai World Cup - 1 1/4 miles on Tapeta

But I’d be glad to see any of the three Americans win or Planteur— if none of them can make a case, I think it’s safe to say America will not be winning the World Cup for a long time.

I hate how people assume that just because I’m a Zenyatta fan, it must mean I’m one of those blind, incorrigible idiots who think she’s the best racehorse ever and can beat anyone anywhere anytime. Not all of my favorites are classified as “greatest ever” material, that’s not always how you become a fan of something/someone.

Paynter’s full brother made his debut yesterday. Fire Flight, owned by the same peeps who own Optimizer, ran 9th in a Retama Park race. Needs more time, maybe?

While we’re on the subject of siblings, Ruler On Ice’s little blaze-faced sis by A.P. Warrior named Liberty Girl paid $31.40 in her first win after 4 starts at Churchill. She’s trained by Eoin Harty and owned by the Casners, so there’s plenty to love about her!

I don’t like Harlan’s Holiday as a sire whatsoever, but I think I would like a foal by him if it were named Thanksgiving. Tee hee hee. I love Thanksgibbing.

Happy retirement, Noble’s Promise.

Swear to God, loving certain racehorses is like belonging to a fandom on Tumblr. You try to introduce this fandom to real-life people you know, and the impact is somehow lost. YOU GOTTA READ ALL ABOUT MAN O’ WAR, SECRETARIAT, CANONERO II, SEABISCUIT, PHAR LAP… YOUR MIND WILL BE BLOWN BY THEIR AMAZINGNESS! NO REALLY, PLEASE READ ABOUT THEM AND WATCH THEIR REPLAYS! PLEASE! I’m dying here.

Ok, Bob, when’s Smash coming back? He’s whizzing through 6 furlong breezes at Hollywood lately and hasn’t run in nearly a year.

Early buzz is on the scene for a new juvenile trained by John Shirreffs and owned by the Mosses: a gray Mizzen Mast colt by the name of Mentor Cane has been looking good.

Just when you start getting dizzy reading about sensational pedigrees, a certain case pops up telling you to not obsess over them: Light Sentence, a son of undefeated Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (I) winner Vindication out of Coaching Club American Oaks (I) winner Lite Light (by G1 winner Majestic Light), won a $6k claimer the other day at Penn National.

Isn’t He Clever is back maybe?… totally outclassed a Ruidoso Downs stakes race winning by 13 1/2 lengths, but it was back in September with no recent works.

The Dubai World Cup is going to be so so so awesome. I know I said this for the past edition which did not live up to expectations, but just look at the Americans planning to head over that have credentials to possibly do well: Animal Kingdom, Dullahan, Royal Delta… DAAAAH!

God I want to go to Aqueduct so bad for the Cigar Mile! Reason #31343842793473 why I need to get paid more.

Thank goodness somebody decided to honor him: Awesome Gem to get ceremony at Hollywood Park, all before being retrained to become a track pony!

I feel like I bring up Bernardini every Racing Beat, but for once he actually gets a teensy bit of kudos for producing Eblouissante. It’s still way early, but everything about her feels special. However, now that I said that I am in stitches laughing at the people who are convinced that she registered a triple-digit Beyer figure in that race. I honestly guess an 80 or so.

Awesome Again: $75,000. Giant’s Causeway: $85,000. Bernardini: $125,000. Frankel: $198,000 (equivalent in USD). That is one expensive gamble.

Tweet o’ the Week: an Italian stakes winner and an Italian-bred trot off for some exercise. I sure hope Becrux [IT] can teach Lucky Chappy [IRE] how to win a G1… I can’t believe the adorable colt hasn’t gotten a graded win yet!

Vacay is being taken from the windows. Last week’s handicapped race was basically an exercise in humility as the chalk was practically guaranteed the win heading in. Selected winner and brisk pacesetter Brave Dave was all-out to complete the 7 furlongs of the Jack Price Juvenile Stakes at Calder, and as predicted, value pick Sr. Quisqueyano bounced along for the place to complete the easy, straight exacta. The weekend for the most part, seemed to fall to the chalk… well, except for maybe Starformer’s winning effort in the Long Island Handicap (III). Too easy, I’m ready for something harder now.

As I continue to reflect on the Breeders’ Cup, where I switched up my analysis process a teensy bit to ignore statistics in favor of form and other factors, it appears to me that certain things I’m all too willing to ignore. Some stats are near-useless, but handicapping hotspots like the DRF use them constantly. So what if a trainer has a winning percentage higher than this one? They all lose sometimes, and isn’t the quality of the horse more important? Nothing drives me more nuts when I navigate to a web page to see someone’s picks for race and see that garbage as their only reasoning why they picked a certain horse. I think I’ve chosen more winners based purely on the paddock— never looking at their pedigree, their connections, etc.— than I have with these useless statistics.

But how and why— and most importantly when— do upsets happen? As a case study, I attacked the Jamaica Handicap (I) from October which was won by the 28-1 longshot and ex-claimer King David. A grass race contested at 9 furlongs at Belmont Park, it featured 6 others with nice records. What went wrong here? Let’s take a looksy:

• The turf going at Belmont that day was rated “good,” which is the first sign of upset potential. Most big wins for the champs happen on firm turf; anything softer doesn’t allow them as fast a kick in the stretch and thus, favors early speed a touch more.

• King David at the time won 5 of 6, but all at the claiming level and at various distances mostly on turf. He appeared to like sitting near the pace, and in this scenario, was only 1 length behind the leader the entire trip. Pedigree-wise, he was in good shape being by Hat Trick [JPN] (also sire of fellow runner and graded turf winner Howe Great) and out of a Gone West mare.
• Runner-up King Kreesa, also a longshot, was the pacesetter who set pretty typical fractions for a turf event. He kept a comfortable lead the whole time.
• Only one favored “rallier” type made it up front for the show in Clement-trained Summer Front. On a personal level, I always strongly favor Christophe Clement’s horses who seem to frequent visits to the toteboard at their worst.
• The rest of the field was watered down with off-kilter stakes winners Dullahan and Howe Great, Cogito, and the longest shot and trailer Shkspeare Shaliyah last. Dullahan was returning to grass as a mystery after blossoming on synthetic, Cogito was freshly shipped from some decent European races, and Howe Great threw in a clunker tiring on the off surface for the first time.
• King David and King Kreesa both had wins on “good” turf in 2012. Summer Front had a 3rd in the “good” Secretariat Stakes (I). All others apart from Howe Great who did not display a liking for it in his prior “good” turf start, were gripping the loose grass for the first time.

Sometimes, apparently class is not enough and surface can mean everything. King David and King Kreesa were both overlooked longshot entries in this G1 event, but perhaps by virtue of the track bias to speed horses and prior experience winning on wet grass, they came home first and second over top grade horses. I have to make a new notch in my belt, as this is a lot of food for thought as a handicapper who relies heavily on class to get the job done in G1 races.

I wasn’t the only one bummed to be living on the east coast two weekends back— and “Frankenstorm” had nothing to do with it.

Romans Racing Stables held a meet-and-greet opportunity for Shackleford’s large fan base at Santa Anita, just days before the Preakness winner would turn in his last one-turner around a track in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (I). By the looks of it, a good-sized crowd gathered to meet the huge, chromey chestnut in person as well as G1 winners Little Mike and Dullahan. Photos of the event made me extra green with envy, as this past summer I had been excited at the chance to see Shackleford in the Whitney (I) at Saratoga only to hear he had been scheduled for the day-later Forego (I) instead at the last minute.

It’s also not just trainers who host these types of for-the-fan gatherings. Stonestreet has a “Rachel Day” to allow fans to meet superstar Rachel Alexandra and other well-known farms like Lane’s End and Three Chimneys commonly host open houses. Unfortunately, these types of events are secluded to Kentucky very often, making it difficult for other fans to get a closer look.

I know from reading and hearing things that not all trainers are as welcoming to fans on the backside as Dale Romans was recently, and while I can relate to the need for peace and quiet it would be great to see this becoming a regular thing. Many fans aren’t close enough to a major track to witness many of these champs for themselves, and the ones who do rarely get closer than the outer rail allows. It would be great to see the sport grow by holding more of these kinds of events when and where it’s possible. Racehorses have the same effect on their fans as rockstars, so where’s the VIP treatment?