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(Into Mischief x Goldenworks, by Banker’s Gold)

• Trainer: Doug O’Neill (I’ll Have Another, Lava Man, Thor’s Echo)
• Jockey: Kevin Krigger (This will be his first Derby ride)
• Owned by: W.C. Racing, Kenney, Dave; and RAP Racing
  
• Record: 6:4-1-0
• Earnings: $1,250,000
• Best speed figures: 105 Beyer, 111 Equibase

Background: Just when it looked like Team O’Neill was going to be out of the Derby picture the year after they led I’ll Have Another into that heralded winner’s circle at Churchill, the bay colt named Goldencents made a big run to score their second consecutive Santa Anita Derby (I) over favored Flashback. Regarded as a good two-year-old, Goldencents dismissed distance doubters by nailing the 9-furlong race, again offering a Cinderella story for fans this year as the curly-maned bay carries black jockey Kevin Krigger to the gate.

Prep Schedule: After knocking heads with Shanghai Bobby as a two-year-old, the talented juvenile closed out his baby year with a front-running score in the Delta Downs Jackpot (III), holding off Bern Identity to win by a clear 1 3/4 lengths. He proved best in his three-year-old debut, winning the Derby points prep the Sham Stakes (III) going a mile, tracking Manado in a tight trip where he prevailed by a game 1 1/4 lengths. He was challenged for the lead early in the San Felipe (II) next out, again at 1 1/16 miles, being effectively run off his feet by Flashback and just hung on to be 4th. Seeking revenge, Goldencents was forwardly-placed on autopilot in the Santa Anita Derby (I) at 9 furlongs, where he progressed nicely into a 1 1/4-length win over Flashback.

Pedigree: New sire Into Mischief is having a heyday with his first crop to race with Goldencents leading the fray with a G1 win and more than a million bucks in earnings. Into Mischief, a son of Florida Derby winner Harlan’s Holiday, had a short-lived career running mostly sprint type races. His half sister is a favorite for the Oaks this year: the indomitably fast Beholder who also capped off a strong Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly (I) win last year. Dam Goldenworks has some distance pedigree although her sire Banker’s Gold didn’t do much beyond 7 furlongs. Goldencents grades fair on the inbreeding scale, though has several Native Dancer references beyond the fifth generation through Raise a Native and Icecapade.

Estimated TrueNicks Rating: A++ Variant 7.37

Running Style: Near-the-pace

Pros: Sporting some excellent speed figures, Goldencents is statistically a top contender in this regard should he keep right on chugging away to get 10 furlongs.

Cons: Showing little dimension other than a need-to-be-up-front horse that has displayed trouble relaxing, Goldencents got sucked into a frenzied duel in the San Felipe (II) and has yet to encounter a truly tough field.

Final Word: Backers of Goldencents have to be those who are either still high off of I’ll Have Another’s Derby win last year or who are driven by certain angles, such as his forward placement and especially his improving Beyers which show he’s right on schedule. I will also forever vouch O’Neill’s stiff conditioning methods for his horses, which he seems to be doing again this year having Goldencents plug away 6 panels at a time at Santa Anita. I don’t personally like him for several reasons: he’s too testy when encountering trouble, he looked all-out getting the Santa Anita (I’ll Have Another ran ears forward in his tough victory), his Santa Anita win was given to him (field was a bit off, Flashback was found to be injured post-race), and I’m going to wager he stops at 9 furlongs looking at his pedigree.

***DERBY HANDICAP CONTEST Week 2 of 10! Please submit your top 3 picks IN ORDER OF FINISH through this submission form (easiest and quickest method), via Tumblr message, or email. You have until 1 hour before the scheduled post time noted below to submit or edit your picks. See the Contest Tab for details.

When I first loaded up the entry list for this race, I assumed my iPod’s wifi connection was pooping out and didn’t load everything. *Refresh*. Oh. Well this kind of sucks… WHY DO WE ONLY HAVE FOUR HORSES RUNNING? Further evidence that the Cali circuit sucks for Derby hopefuls right about now. Two horses storm in from Baffert’s barn against last year’s winning trainer Doug O’Neill, who’s hoping to score this race again with He’s Had Enough.

Weather looks picture-perfect at Santa Anita, so be ready for a fast track.

$200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (II) - 3-Year-Olds. 1 1/16 miles on dirt at Santa Anita. Post Time: Saturday, February 2 at 2:03pm PST.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Little Jerry - Tyler Baze, 118 lbs, Richard Baltas - The Candy Ride [ARG] colt has not made an appearance since his 8th in the CashCall (I), where he was off slow and made no late rally which was expected of him. This will be his first dirt start with no recorded works over it. I liked Little Jerry back in the CashCall, which can probably be excused. He defeated a good colt in Curly Top in his maiden where he closed very fast over this stretch of ground and gets Baze back for this race. Should he likely decide to close in, he may take advantage of the pace if it’s fast.

2) Flashback - Julien Leparoux, 118 lbs, Bob Baffert - The Tapit star and full brother to G1 winner Zazu is apt to be favored despite just having run one winning race and will be making his first dirt start and his first route here. He stretches out a furlong and a half here after blitzing some bullets in his works on the Santa Anita dirt. Another good stalking trip and he could prevail despite his inexperience.

3) Den’s Legacy - Garrett Gomez, 120 lbs, Bob Baffert - The lone graded stakes winner of the field is this Medaglia d’Oro colt, who looks like he can do just about anything that is asked of him. He is the most experienced of the bunch, has some nice bullet moves, and totes Gomez  yet will very likely be overlooked again.

4) He’s Had Enough - Mario Gutierrez, 118 lbs, Doug O’Neill - The Tapit colt made headlines when he gave undefeated Shanghai Bobby a big scare in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, also on this track at this distance. He had a poor race last out when 5th in the CashCall (I), and after a string of longer works, looks to make his second dirt start here for points. I like O’Neill’s conditioning style and the clear break opportunity, but I’m not sure if a colt who is hit-and-miss and called lazy is going to want to compete.

Top Picks in Order:

1) Flashback

2) Den’s Legacy

3) Little Jerry

As no stranger to the equine world, I think Mr. Reddam should rethink how he names his horses… I truly believe from personal experiences that they love to live up to their name! On a serious note, this race is going to be determined by pace, and seeing what we’ve got, I don’t see anyone going much faster than :24 flat with an all-out scramble on the turn. I think Flashback has the right stuff to keep moving forward, and I’ll make it a Baffert double with Den’s Legacy coming in right behind him.

No Value Pick

Handsome Mike (KY)

Basics:

(Scat Daddy x Classic Strike, by Smart Strike

• Trainer: Doug O’Neill (I’ll Have Another, Lava Man, Stevie Wonderboy)
• Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
• Owned by: Reddam Racing
• Career Record: 10: 2-1-1
• Earnings: $756,780

Vital Stats:

• 2012 Record: 6: 1-0-1
• TrueNicks rating: “A++” Variant of 90.74
• Highest Equibase Speed Figure of 2012: 110
• Won last prep [1st, Pennsylvania Derby (II), by 2 lengths]
• Handsome Mike aims to replicate last year’s result where a horse with no G1 wins for the year wins the Classic

Summary: Handsome Mike, originally a promising turf horse at the start of the year, was the longest shot on the board when he won— and broke his maiden— the Pennsylvania Derby (II) at Parx Racing. The win in the million-dollar race catapulted the horse from nobody to somebody, and hopes are high the colt can continue improving.

Prep Schedule: He was a hapless 4th in January in the 1-mile Sham Stakes (III), then improved some when he was moved to synthetic racing 3rd in the 9-furlong El Camino Real (III). He stumbled at the start of the 9-furlong Spiral (III) on synthetic to finish 4th, but was hopelessly beaten returning to dirt in the 9-furlong Haskell (I). Going back to grass, Handsome Mike ran 4th in the 10-furlong Secretariat (I) before finally getting his break in the 9-furlong Pennsylvania Derby (II).

Running Style: Stalking

Pros: He has the benefit of a good last prep that resulted in a winning effort and hopes that he can keep on improving. California trainer O’Neill is good at preparing his horses to go further.

Cons: Huge class hurdle awaits Handsome Mike, who likes to stay behind the pace which will likely be too rapid for him to handle.

Final Word: I’ll eat corned beef if he wins.

Richard’s Kid (MD)

Basics:

(Lemon Drop Kid x Tough Broad, by Broad Brush)

• Trainer: Doug O’Neill (I’ll Have Another, Lava Man, Stevie Wonderboy)
• Jockey: Garrett Gomez
• Owned by: Kenney, D., Triple B Farms, WestsideRentals.com, et al.
• Career Record: 37: 11-3-9
• Earnings: $2,136,360

Vital Stats:

• 2012 Record: 8: 2-1-2
• TrueNicks rating: “B” Variant 1.51
• Highest Equibase Speed Figure of 2012: 114
• Lost last prep [3rd, Awesome Again Stakes, by about 8 lengths]
• Was 6th in 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic (at Oak Tree)
• Richard’s Kid aims to replicate last year’s result where a horse with no G1 wins for the year wins the Classic
• Aims to be the first Maryland-bred since Cigar to win the Classic
• No horse older than 5 has ever won the Classic (Richard’s Kid is 7)

Summary: Recently transferred from Bob Baffert to Derby winner O’Neill, Richard’s Kid is the most experienced horse in the field and has shown he is more than capable at the 10-furlong distance and has always been a force on the west coast. Baffert was understandably upset after his sale and transfer.

Prep Schedule: Under Baffert, Richard’s Kid ran 3 losing races in Dubai— including the Godolphin Mile— before heading back home. After a 3-month layoff, he came back to wire the 1 3/8-mile Prove It Stakes at Hollywood by an impressive 7 1/4 lengths. Staying strong, he ran against his classy stablemate Game On Dude to lose the 1 1/4-mile Hollywood Gold Cup (I) by 1 1/2 lengths. Wheeling back a few weeks later to Del Mar, he was excellent closing to win the 1 1/2-mile Cougar Handicap (II) followed by a good 3rd in the 10-furlong Pacific Classic (I) and was most recently 3rd in the dirt-bound, 9-furlong Awesome Again (I), rallying well after a bad start.

Running Style: Closer

Pros: Still a good horse in a different barn, Richard’s Kid owns 3 G1 wins and has been strong against stiff, stateside competition all year. He could readily close into this race that is going to be full of speed horses.

Cons: He is winless in both his tries on Santa Anita’s main and given that he was just entered in the 2009 Classic which was on synthetic and went winless on Dubai’s Tapeta, it suggests that he is only good for the all-weather. He also hasn’t come close to Game On Dude all year.

Final Word: Looking at his past performances, unless you don’t subscribe to the synthetic surface theory, Richard’s Kid is a bad match for the track. Yes he was 3rd in the Awesome Again, but he was almost beat by Rail Trip and was nowhere near Nonios in second in a field full of “meh” horses. While I respect O’Neill’s conditioning methods with his horses, this is a “reach” spot for this horse. I might have considered him in the Marathon though considering his recent wins!