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A race that takes practically all year to plan out and then a whole week to strategize, I went all-out this year in thinking about the Breeders’ Cup Classic (I). Much easier than last year’s clusterf—k race, there were some definitive toss-outs, a lot of maybes, and a couple of gems in the mix. Form and adaptability to the track bias are probably the two most important factors followed closely by pace, recent works, and raw ability. 

Thanks much to doing my profiles on all 12 entries (plus one with Dullahan who elected to go to the Turf), I was able to whittle things down after the post draw and the final works. My immediate toss-outs I’d be shocked to see win: Handsome Mike and Alpha. Horses I give a mild chance to: Brilliant Speed, Nonios, Flat Out, To Honor and Serve, and Richard’s Kid. From what’s left I was able to pick out 3 I really liked (all I considered strongly for a win) and then decide on the order:

Pick #3: Pool Play - Performs awesomely and is at the top of his game right now coming into the Classic. I was seriously flip-flopping him to win, but I am still concerned about the class and speed jump he’ll face, even as a closer who will likely benefit from the speed. 2-for-2 on dirt, I’m using him!

Pick #2: Game On Dude - Loved him all year and declared shortly after his second place last year in this race that he’d come back next year to win it. He has every chance to win it and Horse of the Year and I think he’s one of the best horses in the country. But can the Dude conquer a tough field at 10 furlongs, which is not his sharpest distance? Who can he sit off of this race to ensure he’s pumped to go in the stretch? After watching the Dude all year, he’s in rarely-seen energetic form. But, I hate picking the chalk and there’s one that I think could beat him…

Pick #1: Fort Larned - A classic-looking horse that is bred to go 10 furlongs, Fort Larned’s my top choice for these reasons and more. He’s established triple-digit Beyers consistently and despite having only dealt with 9 furlongs, his finishes have been strong enough to suggest he’ll do just as well with another. He could sit off of Game On Dude in the early goings and attack late, and he’s got enough speed where it counts to win.

Exotic notes: Ron the Greek could run up late, but I was too concerned to use him in my top 3 because a) he may or may not be off his usual consistency and b) he’s very often far far back. Mucho Macho Man hung in the Woodward, though I do vouch for his conditioner on getting this awesome colt appropriately prepared. To Honor and Serve, Nonios, Richard’s Kid, Flat Out and possibly Brilliant Speed are all considerable in that order.

Value Pick: Fort Larned

What does the BEST handicapper on Tumblr do exactly at 3:30am EST on a Thursday?? Why she’s working on a paper due at 9:30am, that’s what! My oh my, what a studious handicapper she is multi-tasking on explicating Dryden, computing the winning picks, AND being so devilishly good-looking.

And what’s that? She’s eating the midnight snack of champions: generic oreos with 1% milk. Aww yeah.

This is all part procrastination, part I do my best work/thinking super late at night. To top it all off and make this relevant, I also have figured out my Classic horse. I will give thee a hint: he’s not the chalk, and he’s not with Mott.

Nonios (KY)

Basics:

(Pleasantly Perfect x Stylish Manner, by Touch Gold)

• Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer (Blind Luck, Lite Light, Hystericalady)
• Jockey: Martin Pedroza
• Owned by: Green B. Smith Jr
• Career Record: 8: 3-3-1
• Earnings: $409,000

Vital Stats:

• 2012 Record: 8: 3-3-1
• TrueNicks rating: “A++” Variant of 81.92
• Highest Equibase Speed Figure of 2012: 111
• Lost last prep [2nd, Awesome Again Stakes (I), by 3 1/4 lengths]
• Winless on dirt
• Nonios aims to replicate last year’s result where a horse with no G1 wins for the year wins the Classic
• Aims to be the second horse sired by a Classic winner to have won the Classic (1st was Ghostzapper, also sired by 1998 winner Awesome Again)

Summary: If Classics were determined by good looks, Nonios would be in great shape to pull off a huge win. However that’s not the case, and the steadily-improving three-year-old son of Classic winner Pleasantly Perfect hopes to come off his solid runner-up in the Awesome Again to do well again a second time trying Santa Anita’s 10 furlongs. Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer recently flip-flopped from Classic to Dirt Mile back to Classic again for his charge… hmm what could it mean?

Prep Schedule: Unraced as a juvenile, Nonios broke his maiden at Golden Gate right away then won an allowance by an even bigger margin while stretching out. He was 3rd next out in another mile-long allowance at Golden Gate, losing out to future stakes winner Hudson Landing before getting up late to nab his first stakes win over G1 winner Liaison in the Affirmed (III) at Hollywood Park over 1 1/16 miles. He missed the win in the 9-furlong Swaps (II) next out by just 3/4 lengths to front-running sensation Blueskiesnrainbows, then shipped out east for his first dirt start, running second to blowout winner Paynter in the 9-furlong Haskell (I). In the 10-furlong Travers, he was off-the-board for the first time in his life, finishing a discouraged 5th by only 3 3/4 lengths from the winners. He perked right up back in California to be 2nd behind Game On Dude in the Awesome Again (I).

Running Style: Mid-pack

Pros: Experienced and doing well at Santa Anita already, Nonios could pass some tiring company as-is and is apt to improve off that last performance. He’s reportedly been working the best at Hollywood Park and the last-minute swap back to the Classic is intriguing.

Cons: Game On Dude beat Nonios by a solid 3 1/4 lengths in a pretty ordinary field. The fact he hasn’t won on dirt yet is also of concern… who has he beaten this year that has been better than just okay?

Final Word: Nonios isn’t favored to win, but I wouldn’t leave him totally out of the exotics. He’s got some late speed and does pretty well whenever he’s running in California, and given that he’s likely to improve does help his chances.