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(Midnight Lute x Citiview, by Citidancer)

• Trainer: Bob Baffert (Plum Pretty, Coil, Silverbulletday)
• Jockey: Rafael Bejarano (6th last year on Hard Not To Like)
• Owned by: Watson, Karl; Pegram, Michael E.; and Weitman, Paul
• Record: 2:2-0-0
• Earnings: $153,600
• Best speed figures: 94 Beyer, 106 Equibase

Background: The silver bullet from the west, Midnight Lucky fills the shoes her colt stablemates couldn’t shipping out race-ready to Churchill Downs. The lightest-raced of the field, “Lucky” has some historic hurdles to clear as a filly who never raced at 2 and comes into the fray with just 2 starts to her credit. Can this speedball improve enough to catch some of the other girls?

Prep Schedule: Unraced at 2, Midnight Lucky fired a warning shot at Santa Anita in February while smashing her 6 1/2 furlong maiden by 7 1/4 lengths in a public workout. Regrouping a month later in New Mexico, Lucky followed the hoofprints of Baffert’s last Oaks winner Plum Pretty in scoring impressively in the Sunland Oaks (II) while stretching out another 2 furlongs with ease: her win margin was an easy 8.

Pedigree: Part of two-time Breeders’ Cup Sprint (I) winner Midnight Lute’s impressive first crop, Midnight Lucky draws speed and routing capability from her sire through the exceptional three-year-old routers Real Quiet and Deputy Minister, his damsire. Lucky’s dam is Citiview, a Maryland-bred daughter of Citidancer and a full sister to G1 winner Hookedonthefeelin, who produced multi-G1 winner Pussycall Doll, very closely related to Lucky being by Real Quiet. 

Estimated TrueNicks Rating: A++ Variant: 46.54

Running Style: On the pace

Pros: Full of ability makes Lucky a very hot pick fresh off of 2 winning starts. She has the ability to make a big peak effort here on her third start with connections that are very familiar with the winners’ circle.

Cons: She takes a big class jump here and will be tested in a race that offers plenty of speed already. Burnout?

Final Word: If you asked me about her before the analysis, Midnight Lucky was playing a few others to be my top pick of the Oaks. But I have reconsidered slightly after soaking in the details. By family alone, while she is very impressive, the best her cross has had to offer is huge success but at shorter distances. Asking her to leap to a 9-furlong G1 win is asking too much of her family history as well as her experience in a race that will destroy her via Beholder duel. She’s going to be a good horse, but not here.

***DERBY HANDICAP CONTEST Week 2 of 10! Please submit your top 3 picks IN ORDER OF FINISH through this submission form (easiest and quickest method), via Tumblr message, or email. You have until 1 hour before the scheduled post time noted below to submit or edit your picks. See the Contest Tab for details.

When I first loaded up the entry list for this race, I assumed my iPod’s wifi connection was pooping out and didn’t load everything. *Refresh*. Oh. Well this kind of sucks… WHY DO WE ONLY HAVE FOUR HORSES RUNNING? Further evidence that the Cali circuit sucks for Derby hopefuls right about now. Two horses storm in from Baffert’s barn against last year’s winning trainer Doug O’Neill, who’s hoping to score this race again with He’s Had Enough.

Weather looks picture-perfect at Santa Anita, so be ready for a fast track.

$200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (II) - 3-Year-Olds. 1 1/16 miles on dirt at Santa Anita. Post Time: Saturday, February 2 at 2:03pm PST.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Little Jerry - Tyler Baze, 118 lbs, Richard Baltas - The Candy Ride [ARG] colt has not made an appearance since his 8th in the CashCall (I), where he was off slow and made no late rally which was expected of him. This will be his first dirt start with no recorded works over it. I liked Little Jerry back in the CashCall, which can probably be excused. He defeated a good colt in Curly Top in his maiden where he closed very fast over this stretch of ground and gets Baze back for this race. Should he likely decide to close in, he may take advantage of the pace if it’s fast.

2) Flashback - Julien Leparoux, 118 lbs, Bob Baffert - The Tapit star and full brother to G1 winner Zazu is apt to be favored despite just having run one winning race and will be making his first dirt start and his first route here. He stretches out a furlong and a half here after blitzing some bullets in his works on the Santa Anita dirt. Another good stalking trip and he could prevail despite his inexperience.

3) Den’s Legacy - Garrett Gomez, 120 lbs, Bob Baffert - The lone graded stakes winner of the field is this Medaglia d’Oro colt, who looks like he can do just about anything that is asked of him. He is the most experienced of the bunch, has some nice bullet moves, and totes Gomez  yet will very likely be overlooked again.

4) He’s Had Enough - Mario Gutierrez, 118 lbs, Doug O’Neill - The Tapit colt made headlines when he gave undefeated Shanghai Bobby a big scare in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, also on this track at this distance. He had a poor race last out when 5th in the CashCall (I), and after a string of longer works, looks to make his second dirt start here for points. I like O’Neill’s conditioning style and the clear break opportunity, but I’m not sure if a colt who is hit-and-miss and called lazy is going to want to compete.

Top Picks in Order:

1) Flashback

2) Den’s Legacy

3) Little Jerry

As no stranger to the equine world, I think Mr. Reddam should rethink how he names his horses… I truly believe from personal experiences that they love to live up to their name! On a serious note, this race is going to be determined by pace, and seeing what we’ve got, I don’t see anyone going much faster than :24 flat with an all-out scramble on the turn. I think Flashback has the right stuff to keep moving forward, and I’ll make it a Baffert double with Den’s Legacy coming in right behind him.

No Value Pick

While I plan to busy myself on Sunday cheering for Purple Egg in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, I could not shift away from handicapping Santa Anita’s card on Saturday, with the headliner being the G2 San Fernando Stakes. There’s plenty of interesting entries—including 2 of my Saratoga sightings!— and Bob Baffert as usual will be trying to grab it with 4 different horses INCLUDING MY ORIGINAL DERBY FAVORITE FROM LAST YEAR SKY KINGDOM! OH MY GOD I AM SO EXCITED!!! Yeah, I was seriously crushed when he was sidelined, if you couldn’t tell… Baffert aims to become the leader of San Fernando wins, as he is currently tied with Laz Barrera with 4 wins each.

Weather looks California clear for Saturday.

$150,000 San Fernando Stakes (II) - 4-year-olds. 1 1/16 miles on dirt at Santa Anita. Post Time: Saturday, January 12 at 3:36pm PST.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Battle Force - Garrett Gomez, 118 lbs, John Shirreffs - Trading grass for dirt, the Giant’s Causeway colt has been knocking on the winning door for some time, last out being 2nd in the mile-long Sir Beaufort (II), just missing winner Silentio by a half length while closing ground. This will be the colt’s first dirt start after running on poly and grass, though he has never been worse than 3rd. While I trust Shirreffs’ judgement and Gomez’s hands, this one looks a bit tough to use in such a deep field and racing on dirt for the first time. However, he has shown great improvement on the grass and is getting close to a win.

2) Fly Lexis Fly - Rafael Bejarano, 118 lbs, Neil Drysdale - Lightly-raced last year without much avail, the Badge of Silver ridgeling has been struggling with poor starts, too-late runs, and just generally goofing when he should be winning. His last race was a stakes-quality allowance at Hollywood where he ran 3rd behind improving graded winners Jaycito and Tres Borrachos. The blinkers go back on for this test. A horse with upside, I don’t think this is the right place for him. He looks like he could swallow more ground than this and he doesn’t look as good as he did last year.

3) Regulus - Aaron Gryder, 118 lbs, Eoin Harty - The Distorted Humor gelding wears the Darley colors to post after winning twice in 6 starts last year, one of them being an allowance-optional claimer at Santa Anita at the same distance. Not an amazing entry, Regulus is making his stakes debut here. Likely to try to be out on or near the pace to take advantage of that speed bias, but will face a steep class test.

4) Mile High Magic - Martin Garcia, 118 lbs, Bob Baffert - Royal bloodlines pack this improving gelding’s pedigree as a grandson of the famous Silverbulletday, and being that this Roman Ruler son is owned by Mike Pegram at Baffert’s barn, we are right to expect big things. Stretching him out a bit, he was 5th last out here at 7 furlongs in the Damascus Stakes on Breeders’ Cup Saturday as the favorite. The gelding goes blinkers-off for the first time here. While he’s making his graded debut here, he’s outrun some good sprinters like Mensa Heat and Sinai before and appears to like the fast Santa Anita dirt. He’s a beatable favorite though who will need to resist falling into a duel early on.

5) Guilt Trip - Joe Talamo, 118 lbs, Bob Baffert - A bit too slow for the speed in the Malibu (I) last out where he ran 5th, the Pulpit colt drops down a bit and stretches out where he should be more comfortable. While he won’t get a picnic in beating others, he does have some excellent workouts with a :59 bullet last week. He should also like the extra ground more and could close in a bit better in this spot.

6) Handsome Mike - Mario Gutierrez, 123 lbs, Doug O’Neill - The Pennsylvania Derby (II) winner and son of Scat Daddy is back to dirt after flailing home 10th in the Hollywood Derby (I) last out. O’Neill puts blinkers on this G2 winner. Workouts are a bit curious coming from the gate, so I’m wondering whether or not Mike has it in him to catch these faster horses. He may look to try to upset them as they tire in the stretch, but I’m doubtful that will happen at the super-slick Santa Anita main.

7) Sky Kingdom - Edwin Maldonado, 118 lbs, Bob Baffert - A winner twice last year before being 5th in the jumbled Robert B. Lewis (II) here, the son of Empire Maker is finally back after that long 11-month layoff. He looks good in his workouts, but it may be too much of a first test back.

8) Fed Biz - Mike Smith, 118 lbs, Bob Baffert - The speedy Giant’s Causeway colt got off to a bad start in the Malibu (I) last out where he couldn’t muster much better than 6th, and stretches out again here. Likely to take advantage of the speed bias, this colt has the right speed to get the win so long as he can stay out of trouble and doesn’t get caught in a burning pace up front. He looks like a miler, so can he last a bit longer than that?

9) Tribal Jewel - Julien Leparoux, 118 lbs, Jerry Hollendorfer - The California-bred gelding by Tribal Rule, this will be the speedy Hollendorfer trainee’s stakes debut after winning 3 and showing 3 times in 7 starts last year. He was a rallying winner last out in a Santa Anita mile allowance. He has the speed to get this done, but will face a big class test. Leparoux isn’t a top Cali rider, but may be patient enough to eke out a good effort from this rallier.

10) Tritap - Corey Nakatani, 118 lbs, Steve Asmussen - Tapit baby! A winner twice last year and 2nd three times in 7 total starts, Tritap snuffed out the good Suns Out Guns Out last out in a Churchill allowance at this distance in November. He will need to improve further, and I question how well he’s doing in his workouts.

Top Picks in Order

1) Tribal Jewel

2) Mile High Magic

3) Battle Force

While this field is pretty interesting, speedy, and open to little differences in strategy, there’s a lot of vulnerabilities in many performers’ backgrounds, particularly the “class” of the field like Fed Biz who cannot keep himself out of trouble. Tribal Jewel has done little wrong training up to this event, and can take it with a patient ride if and when the pace crashes. Mile High Magic has a lot of upside but will be hammered at the windows no doubt, but looks fresher than most of his stablemates and is Baffert’s best bet to win. Battle Force is an excellent horse, and I don’t think Shirreffs would put him on dirt unless he thought he had dirt potential… plus Gomez, you know, is an excellent rider choice.

Value Pick: Battle Force

Game On Dude (KY)

Basics:

(Awesome Again x Worldly Pleasure, by Devil His Due)

• Trainer: Bob Baffert (Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Lookin At Lucky)
• Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
• Owned by: Diamond Pride LLC, Lanni Family Trust, Mercedes Stable LLC, Schiappa, B.
• Career Record: 20: 9-5-1
• Earnings: $2,994,658

Vital Stats:

• 2012 Record: 6: 4-1-0
• TrueNicks rating: “D” Variant 0.23
• Highest Equibase Speed Figure of 2012: 118
• Won last prep [1st, Awesome Again Stakes (I), by 3 1/4 lengths]
• Runner-up in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, beaten 1 1/2 lengths
• Undefeated on the Santa Anita main track
• Has the Santa Anita meet leader Bejarano in the irons
• Aims to be the first gelding to win the Classic
• Aims to be the second horse sired by a Classic winner to have won the Classic (1st was Ghostzapper, also sired by 1998 winner Awesome Again)
• At 5, he’s one of the oldest horses in the field. Just 6 of 26 past winners were 5 years old (no older winners).

Summary: “The Dude” has long been a favorite of many and a true, front-running champion with 4 G1 wins. He’s one of the best runners this year, snapping up 2 G2 wins, 2 G1 wins, and a nose loss in another G1 on synthetic, suggesting that the 5-year-old gelding is by no means slowing down with another year of racing. He’ll be getting a jockey switch to Bejarano as he faces a huge advantage this year racing on his favorite track.

Prep Schedule: The Dude got the year rolling quickly with an effortless 5 1/2-length win in the 9-furlong San Antonio (II) before shipping out to run an uninspired, wide 12th in the Dubai World Cup (I). He had no bounce coming back to California, registering a dominant 7 1/4-length win in the 9-furlong Californian (II). Bumping up to synthetic, he held Richard’s Kid at bay to win the 10-furlong Hollywood Gold Cup (I) before losing by a fast-closing nose to the brilliant synth specialist Dullahan in the 10-furlong Pacific Classic (I). Rebounding with a new rider back at Santa Anita, the Dude bounced away to a 3 1/4-length win at 9-furlongs in the Awesome Again (I).

Running Style: Front-runner

Pros: The speed biased Santa Anita main is the Dude’s biggest advantage as he sticks to what he knows best. Hard to catch and consistently in peak form, he could relax and slow things down to win this race.

Cons: The Classic rarely falls to front runners and Game On Dude could fall victim this year to another closer, which this race constantly favors. The Dude also excels more decisively at 9 furlongs rather than the full 10, prevailing only twice at the distance out of 7 attempts (one by just a nose!).

Final Word: Lord knows how much I like Game On Dude, who has the tenacity and ability to win this race in a cake walk. However, as time has shown, he is not unbeatable and certainly not at 10 furlongs and in a race that historically loves closers. A horse can easily beat him as long as he doesn’t see them coming…