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(Flashy Bull x Pleasure Cat, by Cat’s Career)

• Trainer: Bill Mott (Cigar, To Honor and Serve, Drosselmeyer)
• Jockey: Junior Alvarado
• Owned by: West Point Thoroughbreds
  
• Record: 5:2-3-0
• Earnings: $196,100
• Best speed figures: 95 Beyer, 99 Equibase

Background: The hype machine can be congratulated for motivating a lot of people to back Flashy Gray as the Oaks favorite earlier in the year, particularly when she sold at top-dollar from Dolphus Morrison— better known as the original owner/breeder of Kentucky Oaks sensation Rachel Alexandra— and trainer Bill Mott. While she has not rebounded off all the hype as expected, she is still seen as a speedy, bold kind of contender that is worth watching.

Prep Schedule: Flashy Gray broke her maiden on her second try on Churchill’s dirt main going 6 1/2 furlongs as a two-year-old, ending her short juvenile campaign on a high note with that 10 1/2-length romp before changing hands as a three-year-old. Mott put his new star in a 7-furlong allowance at Gulfstream in February, where she galloped to an easy 4 3/4-length win. A month later, she chased Rose to Gold around the track to lose by a couple lengths— but well clear of the rest— in her stakes debut in the Honeybee (III). Wheeled back in 3 weeks, Flashy Gray ran second-best again when Junior Alvarado dropped the whip and ran her wide, finishing second to Unlimited Budget by 1 3/4 lengths in the Fair Grounds Oaks (II).

Pedigree: Flashy Bull is best known for passing on early ability and speed as seen in previous crops which included Flashy Lassie and Flashy Dresser. But make no mistake, Flashy Bull had some long-term ability and didn’t show off his best until later on when he won the Stephen Foster (I) as a 4-year-old. A son of legendary Holy Bull, he is out of the Mt. Livermore mare Iridescence, making him a half to stakes winner Pink Viper. Flashy Gray is free of inbreeding through the first five generations.

Estimated TrueNicks Rating: A Variant 2.51

Running Style: Off-the-pace

Pros: Flashy Gray had a strong effort last out in the Fair Grounds Oaks, which may have gone better than second had Alvarado not dropped the whip and run her wide. She could very well get better and win should the pace up front fall apart and has Churchill winning experience.

Cons: Junior Alvarado returns to try again in the Oaks, and he’s the one that gave her a poor trip last out. Her record reads full of excuses.

Final Word: Secret huge plus: Flashy Gray is bred by Brereton Jones (Mark Valeski, Believe You Can, Ive Struck a Nerve). I liked Flashy Gray from a safe vantage point, being well aware she had probably a little too much early hype for a Flashy Bull two-year-old. But, she’s been holding water well with her graded stakes placings and looks to be moving well on a track she’s familiar with. Most will read the PPs and see that she has lost to others in this race, but she could be worth a gamble considering all of her connections and the right trip.

(First Defence x Rising Tornado, by Storm Cat)

• Trainer: Bill Mott (Cigar, To Honor and Serve, Drosselmeyer)
• Jockey: Joel Rosario
• Owned by: Juddmonte Farms
  
• Record: 3:3-0-0
• Earnings: $201,300
• Best speed figures: 88 Beyer, 103 Equibase

Background: One of the more recent hype fillies for the Oaks came out of seemingly nowhere after racing lightly (and successfully) leading up to her dynamite G2 win in the Gazelle (II). Improving with each start, is Close Hatches the newest major success story for the Juddmonte empire, who won the Oaks in 2001 with Flute?

Prep Schedule: 3-for-3 in her career, Close Hatches won for fun in her debut race at 7 furlongs at Aqueduct, winning by 7 lengths while closing into a rapid pace. 2 months later, she sealed the deal in an allowance race while stretching out to 1 1/16 miles, urged by Rosario to win by 1 1/4 lengths over Kimberly Jean (an outrun 4th later on in the Gulfstream Oaks won by Dreaming of Julia in smashing fashion). In her most recent start, she stretched out successfully to the Oaks distance of 9 furlongs to win the Gazelle (II) in a wire-to-wire effort over the previously undefeated Princess of Sylmar.

Pedigree: New sire First Defence is a Juddmonte resident stallion finding some success with his first foal crop (grass runner Dundonnell included) after a G1-winning career as a sprinter. He is the product of your basic American strategy for success being by hot speed sire Unbridled’s Song and out of Honest Lady, a daughter of Seattle Slew who is also a half to Belmont/Wood Memorial winner Empire Maker. Close Hatches’ dam is Rising Tornado, a Storm Cat daughter linebred to the familiar Secretariat-Sir Gaylord dynasty. Close Hatches features 2 traces each to Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector in the first 5 generations.

Estimated TrueNicks Rating: A++ Variant 17.74

Running Style: Adaptable

Pros: A horse I really liked naturally because of my past success with Mott-Juddmonte ties, Close Hatches looks to be keen with her third start off a two-month layoff and is already strong at the Oaks distance. She can win closing as well as setting the pace, so she can likely adapt to whatever Beholder, Dreaming of Julia, and others throw at her.

Cons: Other fillies in the field have had better winning speed figures than her, so she will really have to be better than ever to win. She will also be tested in a very talented Oaks field, as she ran to the nines last out largely unopposed on the front end.

Final Word: Bill Mott? YES! Juddmonte silks? YES MORE! A talented filly named in the spirit of her mother’s name (When a tornado comes, you CLOSE/BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES!)? AWW YEAH! It’s no wonder why I was drawn to Close Hatches, especially after experiencing a bit of bettors’ glee when I got a couple real nice prices last year on Mott-Juddmonte couplings. Close Hatches, although a pick among the wiseguys, should get a little better of a price than three or four others right when she should be ready to peak.

Speed was a prevalent factor for Gulfstream’s opening weekend, featuring the “Blue Collar Breeders’ Cup” aka the Claiming Crown to kick the meet off on a good, raucous note. The race of the week, the Zia Park Derby, was a bit of a bust as Ol Winedrinker Who won and soundly defeated my 3rd choice Master Rick, with 1st choice Alsvid back in third. Alsvid and my 2nd choice Motown Men decided to be dueling pacesetters together for some reason (why why whyyyy!), and Motown Men tired the worst to finish last. Bah. That was an odd race to say the least, but congrats to those who had the local horse to win.

Best race of the weekend goes to Smiling Tiger’s Vernon O. Underwood (III) win, which is the first win for the horse since he traded hands over a year ago at auction. He could have easily been retired, but nope! The warrior snuffed out the returning Smash and my Breeders’ Cup Sprint choice Capital Account (who I like even more after this race running a brave 3rd) while overtaking a very sharp Comma To The Top. Good going, Tiger!

Also, I thought I would share with readers some interesting betting lingo I learned over the weekend: tic-tac terminology is used predominantly in the UK, but I’m keen to learn and someday use some of these when I go to the track…

As I’ve mentioned in past posts, the toteboard can be the difference between an awesome day of betting and one that allowed you to just barely break even. Taking risks that can be explained rationally are necessary to getting a decent overall return. Unfortunately for the lazy ones, this can take time and a good practiced eye, particularly in the case of lower-rank races like Saturday’s 7th race at Aqueduct, a maiden special weight event that featured ten 2-year-old fillies running 1 1/16 miles on the turf. It was won by a bomber in Lemon Song, at astonishing, Pick 6-ruining 57-1 odds. Let’s take a look at the race:

• The two favorites War Relic and Rose Petunia were reasonably likeable. War Relic, a daughter of Pulpit trained by Bill Mott, was tempting with 2 starts including a fast-closing place last out on Delaware’s grass. Meanwhile, Rose Petunia by More Than Ready had 1 prior start in a 3rd place effort on dirt, also trained by Mott with some respectable dirt breezes.
• First giveaway of a pending upset: these are all maiden horses without much of an established race record or consistency. Anything can go, and I don’t see why Rose Petunia wound up being the heavy favorite…?
• Second giveaway of a pending upset: the turf was rated “good” instead of firm, automatically giving horses closer to the pace a better shot since they would not have to dig at the grass so hard in making a late gunning move in the stretch.
• Third giveaway: many of these horses were untried on turf or even at a route.
• Honestly, this race is very weird to recap from an odds perspective. Why was Rose Petunia so favored at 9-5, which is nearly even money? If I had wagered on this race, I would have placed something on the 5-race experienced Hit Squad, also by More Than Ready, who narrowly lost a mile-long turf race ON A “GOOD” TURF COURSE 2 starts back. Hit Squad, at 12-1 odds, wound up 2nd again here but c’mon! Who was betting this race? Did they read the PPs?
• Rose Petunia’s only prior start placed her off slow and going wide but by no means a front runner. War Relic was shown to be a horse that like to close in fast at the end. While Rose Petunia made it to the front early on in a quick first quarter, she did not like it and tired after facing bids from the others. War Relic couldn’t get it in gear, and neither one was anywhere near the board at the finish.
• Winner Lemon Song and 3rd place Switcheroo both sat just off the pace. Hit Squad stormed in from the back with a good late move and experience clearly backing her.
• Lemon Song’s pedigree speaks for itself: Lemon Drop Kid has been a good sire of young turf horses (hello, Somali Lemonade anyone?) out of a Lasting Approval (a graded turf champ) daughter. Her connections aren’t too bad either: owned by Leroy Jolley Jr (the son of Foolish Pleasure’s trainer!) and trained by Leo O’Brien (trainer of iron horse and BC Mile competitor Fourstars All Star).

Just because it’s not a heavy stakes race does not mean you can skimp on doing your homework, and I’m honestly flabbergasted at the weird odds that were obviously influenced by the presence of Bill Mott as trainer. Wonky experience, an off turf course, and very vulnerable favorites played a huge role here in Lemon Song’s queenly upset, which resulted in a win payout of $117 for $2, and the Lemon Song-Hit Squad exacta provided a jaw-dropping $1,076 for $2. Despicable Aqueduct bettors!

Flat Out (FL)

Basics:

(Flatter x Cresta Lil, by Cresta Rider)

• Trainer: Bill Mott (Cigar, Drosselmeyer, Royal Delta)
• Jockey: Joel Rosario
• Owned by: Preston Stables LLC
• Career Record: 19: 6-4-2
• Earnings: $2,042,383

Vital Stats:

• 2012 Record: 5: 1-1-1
• TrueNicks rating: “A+” Variant 5.58
• Highest Equibase Speed Figure of 2012: 121
• Won last prep [1st, Jockey Club Gold Cup (I), by a head]
• 5th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (by some 3-3 1/2 lengths)
• Trainer won last year’s Classic-Ladies Classic double
• Jockey was consistently leading rider at Santa Anita before moving east this year
• Aims to be the first Florida-bred to win the Classic since Skip Away
• No horse older than 5 has ever won the Classic (Flat Out is 6)

Summary: After trading barns to Bill Mott’s as one of last year’s best dirt routers, Flat Out has reached back into his top form recently winning his second consecutive Jockey Club Gold Cup (I).

Prep Schedule: He got off to an odd start trying grass at the start of the year, finishing 12th and last in the turf-bound Ft Lauderdale Stakes (III) at Gulfstream. Returning to dirt, he was wide and responseless running 5th in the Donn (I) and was subsequently transferred to Bill Mott. Taking a 5-month layoff, he was primed in the mile-long Monmouth Cup (II), getting trapped on the inside to run a good 2nd behind Rule and just missed the place in the 9-furlong Whitney (I). He reached his old form once again running on the wet Belmont going to repeat his victory in the 10-furlong Jockey Club Gold Cup (I) by a head over Stay Thirsty.

Running Style: Mid-pack

Pros: Flat Out ran well in last year’s Classic and is arguably in better form right now than he was back then, peaking just perfectly to run an impressive race in the JCGC.

Cons: If there ever was a track-biased horse, Flat Out is a subscriber to that status. Despite never finishing off the board on a New York track, he doesn’t look like the same threatening horse on other tracks.

Final Word: Despite having a lot of clout in winning his last prep and being at peak, Flat Out is the weakest link in Bill Mott’s 3-horse offensive in this race. I just don’t believe he can beat some of these others on a track he probably won’t like.

To Honor and Serve (KY)

Basics:

(Bernardini x Pilfer, by Deputy Minister)

• Trainer: Bill Mott (Cigar, Drosselmeyer, Royal Delta)
• Jockey: John Velazquez
• Owned by: Live Oak Plantation
• Career Record: 16: 8-1-3
• Earnings: $1,798,840

Vital Stats:

• 2012 Record: 5: 2-0-1
• TrueNicks rating: “A+” Variant 5.34
• Highest Equibase Speed Figure of 2012: 118
• Lost last prep [4th, Kelso Handicap, by about 10 1/2 lengths]
• Ran 7th in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic
• Has only won once outside of New York
• Trainer won last year’s Classic-Ladies’ Classic double

Summary: THAS was appropriately hyped up at the start of the year following up his 7th in the Classic with a big win in the Cigar Mile (I). A good sophomore who got things started late, he continued on the warpath as a four-year-old and despite weighing between the Dirt Mile and the Classic, both trainer and owner appear optimistic about his chances in the Big One. Sporting classic lineage and good looks to match, this son of Bernardini looks to go out with a bang in his final start before retiring to stud at Gainesway.

Prep Schedule: Taking a 5-month layoff from his Cigar Mile (I) win, THAS romped by 5 1/4 lengths over 3 rivals in the 1-mile Westchester (III) at Belmont, then stuck around New York for the Met Mile (I) in May where he was stuck on the rail to lose by 3 to Preakness winner (I) Shackleford and Dirt Mile (I) champ Caleb’s Posse. He looked hazy as a well-beaten 4th in the 9-furlong Suburban (II), losing by some 7 1/2 lengths, but roared back into contention to courageously swat out Mucho Macho Man in the 9-furlong Woodward (I). In his final prep over a wet going, he was bumped and went wide to refuse to do better than 4th.

Running Style: Stalking

Pros: As a horse who could handle a mile well, THAS has the unique ability to win at the one-turn and be competitively fast enough to last in the Classic. Laying right off the pace, he won’t encounter much traffic and has a stayer’s pedigree. He also will be keeping John Velazquez, his most compatible rider.

Cons: Despite being a good 4-for-7 at 9 furlongs, he was all out to last that long.

Final Word: As a long-time member of the THAS bandwagon, the colt has a shot as one of the year’s better four-year-olds but is not the best for the distance which he needs to be to win a race like this. I mentioned a while back about how good his chances are in the Classic, but I was discouraged by his poor attitude in the Kelso (II) last out.

Ron the Greek (FL)

Basics:

(Full Mandate x Flambe’, by Fortunate Prospect)

• Trainer: Bill Mott (Drosselmeyer, Cigar, Royal Delta)
• Jockey: Jose Lezcano
• Owned by: Brous Stable, Wachtel Stable, and Jack T. Hammer
• Career Record: 21: 7-5-1
• Earnings: $1,266,597

Vital Stats:

• 2012 Record: 6: 2-3-0
• TrueNicks rating: “D” Variant 0.54
• Highest Equibase Speed Figure of 2012: 121
• Lost last prep [6th, Jockey Club Gold Cup (I) by about 12 lengths]
• Only horse to defeat record-setter Wise Dan this year
• Trainer won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic-Ladies Classic double
• Aims to be the first Florida-bred since Skip Away to win the Classic
• At 5, he’s one of the oldest horses in the field. Just 6 of 26 past winners were 5 years old (no older winners).

Summary: Trading hands to Bill Mott was the magic ingredient that made this 5-year-old horse really turn around, growing from a modest G3 winner to a serious closing machine that snapped up G1s. He shipped all over the country this year to win two G1s at Santa Anita and Churchill Downs over top company. However, he’s lost some favoritism after losing his last two starts in New York. Bill Mott is out to win an historic two consecutive Breeders’ Cup Classics with a trio of horses, with Ron as his deadliest contender.

Prep Schedule: He got things started quick with a close second in the restricted 1 1/8-mile Florida Sunshine Millions Classic and followed that up with a fast-closing win in the Santa Anita Handicap (I) at 10 furlongs. He then ran second again in the Oaklawn Handicap (II) over 1 1/8 miles at Oaklawn, gamely finishing second through traffic 2 1/2 lengths behind Alternation. He was victorious again by a neck humming off the rail to pass Wise Dan in the Stephen Foster (I) at Churchill over 1 1/8 miles, then came up short by 1 1/4 lengths in the 1 1/8 mile Whitney (I) at Saratoga after being far back early. Most recently, he was 6th on a good, wet track at Belmont in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (I) after hitting traffic without much response in the stretch.

Running Style: Closer

Pros: The fact that he has never deliberately dodged anyone is promising as well as the fact that he is a horse that consistently gives it his best shot every time out. He digs the 10 furlong distance the best and has a G1 this year at the track. The pace scenario should set up for him well.

Cons: His last prep was obviously not good in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (I), where he struggled with the surface at Belmont against others who liked it much better. He may have checked out early mentally— he has won on an off surface before.

Final Word: Ron the Greek never wins when I want him to after taking personal losses in the Sunshine Millions and in handicapping picks for many of his races. However, there’s no debate that he is one of the horses to beat in this race and should he get a decent trip, has every reason to finish towards the top so long as his final works indicate he’s ready.

Cease passed his class test in this past Woodward Stakes (I) running third. Can his nephew Apex blossom in time to get Derby-qualified?

It seems like a terrible truth to find that Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has never had a Kentucky Derby winner, much less a whole lot of Derby contenders, but then again, I think we all realize that Mott is keen on taking his time with his juveniles.  All in all, he’s had 7 runners in the Derby including Hold Me Back, who is a freshman sire this year. Time for another one, Bill?

I had the great opportunity to see this particular gelding run in person. A son of distance getter Dynaformer and out of Enth, he is the latest potential golden egg out of a Seeking the Gold daughter. Dynaformer has produced countless stakes winners on both grass and dirt, and carries a reputation as one of the most prominent sires of multi-dimensional distance runners. Apex is the lightly-raced Enth’s first foal, and much anticipation presumably awaits her as a broodmare after much success by Seeking the Gold as a damsire (i.e. G1 winners like Questing [GB] and Blame!). Enth is also a half-sister to Cease, who is G1-placed on dirt.

While he has yet to break his maiden, all signs point that this colt will improve as he grows up and the distances get longer. He was second in his debut at Saratoga on Whitney Day, finishing an encouraging second to heavy favorite and experienced Palace Malice (another good colt on the TC trail) at 5 1/2 furlongs. He followed up that performance with another second at 7 furlongs to Micromanage, a Pletcher spring bud currently on the hot list for many, but he did manage to swat out Gulfport and others in the same race. For many who watched the Futurity Stakes (II) recently, Gulfport was arguably the “best horse who got beat” after a poor start and a rough and wide trip.

In this photo by yours truly, Palace Malice (#8) wins a Saratoga maiden special weight on Whitney Day. Apex (#5) is gaining on him and passes #4 horse Hightail, who was most recently 6th in the loaded Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (II) after passing horses feverishly in the stretch going wide, losing by just 2 3/4 lengths. Trakus figures plugged Hightail as the deserving winner, covering some 9.3 lengths more than the winner Joha. Just thought you might wanna know…

Great trainer? Check. Great connections? Heck yes: bred AND still owned by Claiborne. Potential to get that 10 furlongs? For sure! He may not be a winner, but I’m confident we’ll see Apex reach the top sometime next year.