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For the next couple of weeks, you all get to deal with my excitement about attending the Belmont Stakes (I) through a series of warlgarbl’d text posts. Aw yeah.

As the ponies are one of my favorite subjects to photograph— be they Thoroughbreds, Saddlebreds, Morgans, Friesians, and others— one of the main draws for me personally at the races is getting some good snapshots of the horses in action. As a spectator, it’s tough to find your shots from mostly one vantage point, and last year I had just gotten another DSLR after having to sell the first one I had. Bringing home mostly “meh” pictures of some really outstanding photo opportunities was kind of a letdown, so I made it my goal for this year to get some better stuff to bring to the races this summer.

Incoming photo nerd stuff!

Last year, I had only just gotten my new Nikon d5000 (which many call “outdated trash” but I say otherwise… the camera model you have should be the third most important thing AND NO HIGHER on your priorities), which came with the stock automatic lens, which is pretty good, but I could only zoom out to 55mm maximum. 55mm is like what you see with your own eyes and doesn’t let you get up close, which is what I prefer to get.

This is about as good as I could get to getting a close-up of sprinter Hamazing Destiny last year. It drove me nuts just having the stock Nikkor lens on hand.

Because autofocus lenses are very expensive and only get pricer as they increase in focal length, I opted for a tried-and-true manual option. The greatest thing in the world about DSLR cameras is the backwards-compatibility they have with many old film camera lens. You can go on eBay, buy a beast piece of glass from 1991, and as long as you’ve done your homework about the mount type/buy an adapter to work with both, it works! The only reason why more people don’t buy manual lenses is because they’re a) optics whores… honestly, images don’t need to be National Geographic sharp to be beautiful! and or b) too reliant on the autofocus feature, which can be as harmful as it is helpful!

While you have a good deal of control over what the autofocus chooses to bring into focus, its results are often spotty. And honestly, if I can shift the autofocus ring myself as opposed to pushing a button, is that really worth several hundred dollars’ more? Nope. Enter my new favorite lens, the Sears 100-200mm (pictured above).

I absolutely love this thing, and even though it’s my cheapest lens ($30 on eBay), it’s my favorite one out of the 4 I currently own, which include 2 top-of-the-line Nikon pieces. It’s not super sharp, but that’s part of the draw as it gives this dreamy, soft, filmic look to all my pictures while letting me get close to my subjects:

Both images were only edited a little bit (a feature called “Leveling” which adjust the darks, middles, and highlights of the picture) and were shot in the camera’s RAW mode— an advanced shooting mode that captures very high quality picture files. This was my first time ever using this particular lens inside a dingy-dark indoor arena, so this is pretty good!

For the aspiring photo nerd: get a DSLR. Doesn’t matter what kind, though I prefer Nikon or Canon (Canon is allegedly more user friendly with richer colors, but I wouldn’t know since I’ve been Nikon all these years). Learn a little bit about photography, do some homework online about what mount type your camera accepts, and go manual on the cheap. It’s honestly getting so cheap with used DSLRs and lenses on eBay that you don’t have a good excuse to NOT want to venture outside of your smartphone and point-and-shoots. Especially if you’re like me and like going to the track and getting some spicy shots.

So yeah, I’ll have my bag o’ stuff with me at Belmont in railbird position, but I will no doubt be picking up better pictures this time around. Getting a really good picture at the track is like hitting a 20-1!

In the event you didn’t sense it from my tone, I was very unsure about doing any actual things involving money this weekend despite being excited about Super Saturday. Last year, I did all sorts of predictions only to have the track turn up wet at Belmont, which led to I believe all but one race being totally off and Blind Luck getting retired prematurely. What a bad day. This year wasn’t quite that bad, but I only wagered— unsuccessfully, at that— a couple Game On Dude-on-top exactas. At least he won. Out of all the upsets that happened, I was ecstatic to see Barclay Tagg’s Jersey Town snap out of his funk, but I don’t know how good he’ll be for the Dirt Mile. To Honor and Serve definitely took a big step back for me over the weekend.

My best race was shockingly enough a sprint: the Vosburgh won by The Lumber Guy. My first choice Poseidon’s Warrior came in 3rd, third-choice Caixa Eletronica rallied to be 2nd, and second-choice Sean Avery placed 4th.

Between the off track, the bad juju, chalky finishes, and being busy at home for the weekend, it was generally a good decision to stay away from what would have become an all-day affair in front of the TV getting worked up. Off tracks more often than not produce upset winners, and no doubt Santa Anita was too-properly souped up for opening weekend. But, it was not without its purpose, providing a lot of new input that could potentially inflate some odds in time for the Breeders’ Cup:

• Love And Pride’s odds will likely be unrealistically short— I don’t think she’s that good despite two G1s in row, and with a lot of speed in the Ladies’ Classic she won’t be left alone
• Ron the Greek’s poor showing in the JCGC was probably due to the track. He likes 10 furlongs and at running that distance at Santa Anita with a lot of speed up front will work in his favor. His continuing lack of a fanbase is also encouraging good odds.
• Flat Out was a shameful “miss” on my behalf over the weekend being in peak condition and on his favorite track, but he will likely regress off of it.

In regards to Santa Anita, I don’t recall having an awful time of figuring out races there, but over the next month it will demand close inspection leading up to the Breeders’ Cup. Slim Shadey [GB] wired the John Henry Turf on Sunday. Executiveprivilege also went wire-to-wire on the dirt this weekend as well as Love And Pride, and Game On Dude was just off the front end. Is the track biased and will it remain that way into November? For most people it is safe to say it was.

The masterful performance of the weekend goes to the grass: Point of Entry is one of America’s best horses despite battling on yielding grass over the weekend which would have benefited others more than himself. While I did not handicap any turf races for the weekend, out of any of his starts this year, the Joe Hirsch (I) was Point of Entry’s to lose with the predicted poor footing and pressure from in front and behind. He is now the victor of 5 races— 3 of them G1— and if Acclamation was a candidate for it last year, Point of Entry is almost certainly a shoo-in for Horse of the Year nomination should he take down the Euros in November.

Belmont’s getting rain today, but it should clear up soon and have a good shot to be dried out to be at least “good” for Saturday. Oy! This is getting complicated!

Named after one of history’s greatest geldings, the Grade 2 Kelso Handicap is a “Win and You’re In” Breeders’ Cup event for the Dirt Mile and is looking like one of the toughest fields running in the star-studded Super Saturday lineup at Belmont. New York heavyweight Rick Dutrow has four of the eight contenders, with 3 other field entries possessing a G1 win at the mile distance.

The weather looks sketchy for Saturday, and a 40-50% chance of rain might mean the two heavy favorites will be particularly vulnerable.

$400,000 Kelso Handicap (II) - 3-Year-Olds & Up. 1 mile on dirt at Belmont Park. Post Time: Saturday, September 29 at 3:30pm EST

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Isn’t He Perfect - Michael Luzzi, 114 lbs, Rick Dutrow - With just 2 wins this year out of 9 starts (both at Belmont), the Pleasantly Perfect colt is finding some middle ground between his two most popular distances in the Kelso’s mile, and while his figures are consistent, they are neither impressive nor enough to scare. Between his off record and his snail-slow 4 panels in :53, he’s the longest shot here to do much.

2) Golddigger’s Boy - Jose Lezcano, 115 lbs, Ramon Preciado - The son of Jump Start has landed on the board in every one of his 2012 starts, but all were at the G3 level or lower. He was well-beaten in last year’s Kelso by 18 3/4 lengths on a sloppy surface, not giving him much hope here.

3) Jersey Town - Javier Castellano, 116 lbs, Barclay Tagg -The blaze-faced Speightstown gelding hasn’t had a win since his Cigar Mile (I) in 2010, but has made some good efforts since then, coming in third last out in the Forego (I). He’s missing that edge he used to have and seems to tire even more on an off going. New jockey Castellano will need a magic touch.

4) Tapizar - Corey Nakatani, 117 lbs, Steve Asmussen -The Tapit colt has been digging the mile-and-change distance, winning 2 starts and a second in 4 total this year, and a slight cutback should only aid him in his near-the-pace running style. With the weight break, he should be ready to improve even more off his last win.

5) To Honor and Serve - John Velazquez, 121 lbs, Bill Mott - The Bernardini colt has the ‘11 Cigar Mile (I) and ‘12 Westchester (III) win to his credit and was a tangled third in the Met Mile, drifting out lazily after being boxed in for most of the ride. He came back with a vengeance to win the 1 1/8 mile Woodward in champion spirit, and will cut back to a cozier distance here. He’s capable of throwing some awesome runs as well as some clunkers. If you believe in “on-off” theories, THAS likes to win at least twice in a row before he throws in a bad race, but will need to be at his best. Also not cozy knowing that he’s never been on an off track!

6) Shackleford - Ramon Dominguez, 121 lbs, Dale Romans - The brilliant son of Forestry could possibly top the campaign he had last year as a Preakness-winning sophomore after his Met Mile (I) win over Caleb’s Posse. Shack has shown he does not favor a sloppy track, over which he dragged far back to finish last in the Vanderbilt (I), and he wound up scratching from the Forego (I) with a cough. Definitely ready to get back to work, he blasted a hole through the Churchill dirt whizzing through 4 panels in a dizzy :46 and change. A record of going 1-2 in 2 starts at a mile, Shack is going to be the deserving favorite and one to beat… unless of course the track is a mess… Shack obviously does not like the mud.

7) Gallant Fields - Joel Rosario, 114 lbs, Rick Dutrow - Winless in 7 starts this year, the ex-claimer Smarty Jones gelding has his work cut out for him. Claimed two starts back by J.W. Singer (that’s Teeth of the Dog’s owner), the gelding was third last out in a $75 op claimer to Vosburgh runners Little Drama and Zero Rate Policy after a bumped start. Is he better than the 98 Equibase figure? His works look ok, but he’ll need to return to better form to stand a chance of not being left in the dust.

8) Pacific Ocean - Wilmer Garcia, 116 lbs, Rick Dutrow - The chestnut Ghostzapper gelding is for 5-for-9 in lifetime starts, with his biggest success being the winner of this year’s 7-furlong James Marvin (III) at Saratoga. Sure to be a fast pacesetter whether or not Shackleford decides to go, this may be a furlong or two too far for this sprinterly type who probably likes synthetic more than dirt anyway.

9) Trickmeister - Cornelio Velasquez, 116 lbs, Rick Dutrow - Fed up with the beating he’s taken going further, the raucous Proud Citizen horse aims to return to the top of things by taking an appropriate cut back to the mile distance for the first time. Likely to be up on the pace, Trickmeister has faded well off his old form, but has never been beaten by a bad horse. If he’s lively enough, he can bounce back but I’m not counting on a win here.

Picks in Order: (based on a predicted “good” track)

1) To Honor and Serve

2) Tapizar

3) Shackleford

This is a race that is really up in the air. If it stays fast and dry, Shackleford wins it. If it’s downgraded, I see To Honor and Serve or Tapizar taking the win; horses like Shackleford and Golddigger’s Boy are quick toss-outs if it’s sloppy.

Value Pick: Tapizar

Often the predecessor to a knockout win in other big route races, the Jockey Club Gold Cup isn’t what it used to be (a 2-mile race on dirt somehow turned into a 10-furlong practice run for Breeders’ Cup Marathoners), but it’s still a million-dollar G1 test for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (I) in November. A “Win and You’re In” for the Classic, this year’s JCGC drew a full field of ten including last year’s champ, a total of 6 G1 winners, and 2 three-year-olds that will be among the first of their class to face older horses in a graded event.

The fast dirt at Old Sandy appears to favor off-the-pace winners in the recent past, with winners in the past twenty years going on to win 4 Breeders’ Cup Classics and be runner-up in another running. The weather in Long Island unfortunately looks to damper things for the second year in a row with a 40-50% chance of rain for both Friday and Saturday. Be sure to factor track conditions and remember, when the track is off, the longshots come out to play.

$1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup (I) - 3-Year-Olds & Up. 1 1/4 miles on dirt at Belmont Park. Post Time: Saturday, September 29 at 5:46pm EST

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Ron the Greek - Jose Lezcano, 126 lbs, Bill Mott - The Full Mandate horse has been having a great year with two G1 wins and a close second in the Whitney (I) after shipping all over the country to run. He has been looking good and should be fresh for the race. Lezcano is a good rail rider, but it’s still a troubling spot to have a favored closer. His record on an off track is surprisingly good with all hitting the board if not winning, and I think Mott was wise in skipping the Woodward to keep this horse fresh. Given a promising pace scenario, he could turn out another winning effort here.

2) Stay Thirsty - Ramon Dominguez, 126 lbs, Todd Pletcher - The Bernardini colt has been the little-engine-that-could since his humble win streak last year as a Travers-winning three-year-old, but has been missing that extra gear for some time. An empty third in last year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup, Thirsty has not won since his Travers turn and while he was 4 lengths back in 5th last out in the Woodward (I), he went wide for much of it and lost the whip at the 1/8 pole. To his slop credit, he has two seconds and a third out of 3 tries. Despite the whip drop, he improved from a 101 Equibase fig in the Suburban to a 112 while carrying 9 additional pounds. He’ll like the distance and the track, but can he get any closer than 2 lengths from the win this year?

3) Ruler On Ice - Alan Garcia, 126 lbs, Kelly Breen - The Belmont-winning son of Roman Ruler hasn’t had the best year running second-fiddle in allowance company, but props are needed for his last start where he ran second to Win Willy by 2 lengths, staying stubborn in his usual stalking position to register a much-improved, career best 119 Equibase figure. We already all know how he does on an off Belmont surface. If it rains, you might want to work Ruler On Ice in there as a well-known and successful stalker. He should draw good odds either way.

4) Hymn Book - John Velazquez, 126 lbs, Claude McGaughey - The Arch gelding has not won since his Donn (I) upset earlier in the year with his next best being a decent second to Mucho Macho Man in the Suburban (II). However, he has endured some rocky and some pretty wide trips as a closer, and the extra furlong should help him. He’s good in the slop, winning on an off track 5 of 9 times, 2 of those wins being at Belmont. A horse who needs a good pace to do well, Hymn Book has little actually riding on this race with no intention right now to ship to the Breeders’ Cup.

5) Fort Larned - Brian Joseph Hernandez, 126 lbs, Ian Wilkes - The speedy E Dubai winner of the Whitney (I) is back for more and another (hopefully) successful stalking trip. His Whitney was won easy and late under a hand ride, suggesting Fort Larned’s got more where that came from and has won in the slop. Some may be too wary of Fort Larned to challenge him on or near the lead, suggesting he might be able to wrap up this race all on his own.

6) Atigun - Mike Smith, 122 lbs, Ken McPeek - The Istan colt was a blocked, late-charging third in the Travers last out, the benefit of the doubt being given to him by trainer McPeek that the colt would prefer the full 10-furlong distance over the easier field he would have faced in the Pennsylvania Derby (II)— which is probably true. Atigun’s best of late has been consistent, but really has to be much better to compete with this crowd. Another horse who should like the distance and need a pace and a personal best.

7) Fast Falcon - Corey Nakatani, 122 lbs, Nick Zito - The Awesome Again colt was a fierce late third in the Travers, and arguably had the best finishing touch out of any other horse in that race. He’s right at home at Belmont with two runner-up efforts against Teeth of the Dog here before. His career best was a low figure and a second placing, and given the possible weather conditions, he is a toss out due to class hike, speed figures, AND a surface he’s shown to not like. Would not be surprised if he scratches.

8) San Pablo - Javier Castellano, 126 lbs, Todd Pletcher - The Jump Start colt hopes to add a third race to his winning streak, both recent races were at 1 1/8 miles won in easy fashion. Likely to be stalking the pace, San Pablo has the stats to get an upset here with 3 wins and 2 seconds in 6 starts this year. Class is a question as is the off-track angle, but the added bonus of Castellano looks good.

9) Flat Out - Joel Rosario, 126 lbs, Bill Mott - The defending champion son of Flatter returns with a new trainer and jockey this year while being a little rough on his old form. He improved sharply in his Whitney performance where he was third by just a head to Ron the Greek, beaten less than 2 lengths by Fort Larned while sitting mid-pace with a wide trip. Flat Out is Mott’s Drosselmeyer this year, and due to his recovered form and distance clout, he’s secretly going to be one of the top horses to beat here and likely good value.

10) Game Ball - Jose Espinoza, 126 lbs, Naipaul Chatterpaul - A recent ex-claimer by Sky Mesa owned and trained by Chatterpaul, Game Ball has been everywhere this year and doesn’t appear to have a niche unless it’s “that horse that probably shouldn’t be here.” I’m wondering even further why he’s here because he didn’t make the stakes nomination list? A career closer, is off track record is fairly good but he lacks the class to make anything happen here, finishing a well-beaten 8th last out in the Sword Dancer (I).

Picks in Order:

1) Ron the Greek

2) Flat Out

3) Fort Larned

The track is likely going to be less than fast, so that makes handicapping this race that much harder to do. Fort Larned looks to be the lone speed here with most of the horses preferring a stalker or closer position behind him. I think he will try to slow down the pace to kill the horses behind him and try to win wire-to-wire. However, Ron the Greek was way too far back in the Whitney and looked awesome for second there. With freshening and an extra furlong, even if he errs again he’s super tough. Ruler On Ice and Flat Out… possibly San Pablo… I wish I could use both. Ruler may still be a bit short though, and I think Mott will have Flat Out tuned up and ready to go here for a much better effort, and he’s got tremendous upside all around. A big psychology factor to consider: who needs this race, and who will want to not go “all out?” Fort Larned and Ron the Greek already have guaranteed berths.

Value Pick: Flat Out

As the Belmont fall meet begins to warm up, I’m just joyous to return to look at one of my favorite races from last year (unfortunately, this year’s is missing Winter Memories), the G1 Garden City Stakes. Considering the immense purse bump (it has been doubled to $300 from last year’s $150k), I’m a little disappointed by the light field numbers-wise. No doubt because of the money and the graded status, we’ve got some European invaders look to steal one from American soil with a couple powerhouse American trainers stepping up for defense.

$300,000 Garden City Stakes (I) - 3-Year-Old & Up Fillies. 1 1/8 miles on inner turf at Belmont Park. Post Time: Saturday, September 15 at 5:06pm EST.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Tannery [IRE] - Jose Lezcano, 118 lbs, Alan Goldberg - The sole non-Lasix entry of the group, the Dylan Thomas [IRE] shipper has a nice 2012 record of 4 wins in 6 starts, all overseas in super-competitive Ireland, in weight-for-age stakes races. She picks up the rail as well as hot turf rider Lezcano. A nice horse, I’m generally uncomfortable going with a first-time North American starter right off the bat, and while I’ve seen Lezcano win right off the rail on turf, it’s altogether an unattractive deal for me. However, consider her if the going is soft.

2) Open Water - Corey Nakatani, 116 lbs, Eric Guillot - Just one off-the-board finish dots this Include filly’s 2012 resume, her last start being a good third at heavy odds behind California star Lady of Shamrock. Her lone win this year came in an allowance-op claimer on poly at Turfway, winning by an excellent 10 1/2 lengths. She’s a bit of a gut play for me, being by underrated middle-market sire Include out of an A.P. Indy mare named Biscayne Bay (near where I lived for some years). She’s been doing well, just not well enough to win. The jump up in class is definitely daunting, so even though she’ll get very pleasing odds, I wouldn’t use her outside of some exotics.

3) Samitar [GB] - Ramon Dominguez, 122 lbs, Chad Brown - The anticipated favorite, the daughter of Rock of Gibralter [IRE] made a somewhat disappointing North American debut in the Lake George (III), finishing third behind Centre Court and G2 winner Better Lucky. However, she was a bit wide the whole time and was bumped at the start, all while being beaten a head for the win— I really can’t harp on her! Between the 108 Equibase figure from that start, the Chad Brown connection, serious bullets fired in grass training, an extra half furlong, first-time Lasix, and the fact she’s a good Euro… it’s hard to knock her from favoritism.

4) Somali Lemonade - Joel Rosario, 118 lbs, Michael Matz -The Lemon Drop Kid filly has been really off and on when it comes to racing close to the board. She was third last out in the Lake Placid, beaten barely a length by Stephanie’s Kitten and Centre Court while making up ground late at this distance. She broke her maiden here at Belmont, and while her best speed fig of the year is good she hasn’t been good enough to win. It’s possible for her to get up front, but she’ll need her best effort to do so.

5) Ciao Bella - John Velazquez, 116 lbs, Todd Pletcher - The lightly raced Giant’s Causeway filly made a splash breaking her maiden on dirt by 7 lengths then took a dirt allowance by 4 1/2. She flailed in stakes debut on dirt, finishing an uninterested 4th, so it seems Pletcher is trying once again to swap surfaces to appeal to her interests. This sort of swap situation didn’t work with a more promising filly, Disposablepleasure, but she’s been cooking 4 furlongs in grass works and her heritage suggests she’ll like the switch.

6) Karlovy Vary - Julien Leparoux, 118 lbs, George Arnold - When in doubt, don’t forget the Dynaformer in the field— and certainly not one on the grass! Karlovy Vary looks to get back to business going a full furlong longer than she did in her last start, the ungraded Nani Lew at Saratoga where she finished a modest third. Her only off-the-board start of the year was the dirt Kentucky Oaks, and beating some nice ones like Stephanie’s Kitten in the Ashland (I) definitely gives this gal some high marks. Some nice moves invested on the grass, and she’s the underdog choice here with no stakes wins on the surface… yet!

7) Trophy Wife - Eddie Castro, 116 lbs, Claude McGaughey - The up-and-coming Giant’s Causeway filly makes her stakes debut here after some nice progress. I saw her last race [on TV] in a good allowance win over 1 3/16 miles at Saratoga. She’s not incredibly practiced, especially on grass, and she didn’t beat a whole lot last out. Despite the Phipps-McGaughey connections, I’m seeing a lot to be desired.

Top Picks in Order:

1) Samitar [GB]

2) Karlovy Vary

3) Somali Lemonade

Samitar’s going to be hard to beat and for a G1, will be ready to fight for this one with top connections. This field has few real hurdles for her to jump to win this one hot off the bench. Karlovy Vary’s been my go-to pick for a while now, and she looks primed for a big effort with a little more distance added that should ultimately help. Toss in the trying Somali Lemonade to fill out the trifecta who looks like she has the stats to improve from last time, but I’ll probably box in feather-weighted Open Water as well with that tendency to hit the board at long odds.

Value Pick: Karlovy Vary

The Man o’ War Stakes (I) is the final G1 race of the big Belmont meet, shuttering shop with a field light on serious statistics, but heavy on suspicion and gut feelings. I have not done well handicapping past grass races at Belmont, so it is with great caution and intrigue that I stop to eyeball this field, where European runner Treasure Beach [GB] is without a doubt going to be the heavy favorite (I’m thinking 1-5).

Friday and Saturday look pretty safe from any potential rain that might soften up the course, so from that angle things are unaffected.

$600,000 Man o’ War Stakes (I) - 3-Year-Olds & Up. 1 3/8 miles on turf at Belmont Park. Post Time: Saturday, July 14 at 4:34pm EST.

[Post Position, Horse - Jockey, Impost, Trainer - Summary, Opinion in italics]

1) Tahoe Lake [BRZ] - Eddie Castro, 116 lbs, Ken McPeek - I believe I pegged this Know Heights [IRE] gelding for second or third in the Louisville Handicap (III), where he finished 3rd running between horses. He faded in his last start in an allowance to finish last, his first off-the-board finish since October 2011. He’s been looking good working over Keeneland’s Polytrack, zipping in 5 furlongs in :59 2/5 a couple weeks ago. European breeding, distance ability, and consistency make this McPeek entry a nice draw if you’re looking to attack some value.

2) Center Divider - Rosie Napravnik, 118 lbs, Chad Brown - The Giant’s Causeway colt is looking for that stakes score still, having won at allowance level but staying clear of the board in two tries this year. He took a bad step and lost his jockey last out in the Elkhorn Stakes (II), an excusable miss, and stayed strong to finish 4th in good company in the Mac Diarmida Stakes (II) over 1 3/8 miles. Breezing well enough at Saratoga, he’s a nice colt with great grass pedigree and Brown has an excellent record already at Belmont.

3) Point of Entry - Jose Lezcano, 118 lbs, Claude McGaughey - Winning 2 of 3 starts this year including a nice score in the Elkhorn (II) over Tahoe Lake [BRZ], the Dynaformer colt is consistent as can be, never finishing worse than 4th his entire career. Super grass horse with that dangerous Shug McGaughey-Phipps connection combo. Digs the distance, has been working AT Belmont on the course, and should not be ignored.

4) Newsdad - Junior Alvarado, 118 lbs, Bill Mott - Instant bias alert! Been a fan of this Arch colt since last year and it was earlier this year he showed some promise running on Gulfstream’s grass, winning the Pan-American Stakes (II) with relative ease over a small field. He made a poor move gunning to the lead in the Elkhorn (II) last out where he faded to 5th, so he may have a little leg room to be reconsidered. He gets a jockey switch from Leparoux to Alvarado, and should have some decent value from that poor Elkhorn showing.

5) Treasure Beach [GB] - Jamie Spencer, 120 lbs, Aiden P. O’Brien - The lone G1 winner in the field, the Galileo [IRE] colt is the one to beat here despite having no wins this year and not having run since Dubai in March. He pacestalked his way to victory last time he was Stateside winning the Secretariat (I), and has yet to be beaten by North American horses. Neither distance nor pace should bother Treasure Beach, and while there are no works available, I trust O’Brien’s abilities in preparing this one for a big score.

6) Game Ball - David Cohen, 116 lbs, Naipaul Chatterpaul - An intriguing, weird entry, the Sky Mesa son is no doubt the longshot of the field having a career best stakes finish of 7th in the 2010 Illinois Derby— his only stakes start— with many wins and places in starter allowances having been freshly claimed by Chatterpaul from Mark Casse. Working on the Belmont turf up to this race, he’s a successful closer among unimpressive fields. Going from a $50,000 claimer to a G1 is unheard of… let’s watch!

7) Hudson Steele - Joe Bravo, 118 lbs, Todd Pletcher - 4th in the Manhattan (I) after 2 stakes wins, the Johannesburg gelding is looking to try again here as a horse likely to try and sit off the pace where he has been most successful. Working on the Belmont turf, while he has ability he has not demonstrated skill at this particular type of distance. I’d like him more at a mile and an eighth or less.

8) Philly Ace - Irad Ortiz, 118 lbs, Christophe Clement - Another turf entry out of Clement, the Smart Strike gelding looks to step it up after 2 nice allowance scores, both at a mile on the grass and his only starts this year. Not a strong case, but that is often the case for Clement trainees. He may or may not be overbet due to Clement’s recent rampant success with turf horses such as Mystical Star, so check the tote.

Top Picks in Order:

1) Treasure Beach

2) Point of Entry

3) Newsdad

I went into this trying to beat the favorite, but honestly I think he’s sitting on a big one here in a field that reads more like a G2 than a G1. Point of Entry is an excellent closing machine, and Newsdad should recover back to the front end.

Value Pick: Tahoe Lake [BRZ]