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Asked by behindthecounterinasmalltown

Orb is the one to beat today. At Belmont, he’s advantaged to be at his home track, but he’s got some legit new shooters coming back for that race. Orb is at a much better position than Animal Kingdom was as a horse who doesn’t care where he is during the race, so with that said I think he does have a solid chance to win all three. He’s the best three-year-old right now, but then again, that’s not saying much… our hottest three-year-olds in the country (except Orb) fizzled in the Derby so badly it’s not even funny.

They’ll all be after him today, and again in June should he win today. ORB SHOULD BE ABLE TO WIN AND WIN EASILY TODAY, but I reserve any mention of the Triple Crown until later on tonight.

Asked by thoughtsonracinglifeandmore

BACKSEAT TRAINER DISEASE IS BACK, EVERYONE! ;P

I’m so game to use Itsmyluckyday somehow tomorrow, the colt is looking cranked. I think Orb is better, but neither one got an optimal post position and I still don’t know the depth of Lucky’s ability for sure… Gulfstream’s been way too fast and Shanghai Bobby wasn’t anything to applaud.

Handicapping the race today, but yeah, perhaps you are right. Plesa might have had a better horse on deck if he worked him a bit harder. Lucky wasn’t up to speed in the Florida Derby after a longer-than-usual layoff and wasn’t ready to go.

Asked by thoughtsonracinglifeandmore

AWKWARD IS AS AWKWARD DOES.

I’m ok with seeing myself at this point (most of the time), but often I hate hearing myself. I suppose it is just something I will need to hurdle over. Tanks for watching, Goldencents is still going to lose.

Asked by thoughtsonracinglifeandmore

The race has only been around since 2000 and has experienced up and down changes and has attracted mainly European horses, most of which aren’t really interested in shipping all the way to the States when they’re better on grass. Records of UAE winners in Derby:

• China Visit (2000) was 6th. Euro grass horse.
• Express Tour (2001) was 8th. Later proved he was more a miler.
• Essence of Dubai (2002) was 9th. Bumped in Derby, did not do much later except win the Super Derby (II), looked the part of a horse who was a better two-year-old.
• Victory Moon (2003) did not run back in KY Derby. Ran well later in Dubai.
• Lundy’s Liability (2004) did not run back in KY Derby. He won the Goodwood and the San Antonio Handicaps (II).
• Blues and Royals (2005) did not run back in KY Derby. Apparently this was his last race.
• Discreet Cat (2006) did not run back in KY Derby. Proved to be a very good dirt miler with a win in the Cigar Mile (I) later that year.
• Asiatic Boy (2007) did not run back in KY Derby. Ran 2nd to Well Armed the following year in the Dubai World Cup and ran 2nd in the Stephen Foster (I) and Suburban (II).
• Honour Devil (2008) did not run back in KY Derby. Didn’t amount to much later.
• Regal Ransom (2009) was 8th. All over the map with his race schedule, didn’t do much but win the Super Derby (II).
• Musir (2010) did not run back in KY Derby. Australian horse won several more events at Dubai.
• Khawlah (2011) did not run back in KY Derby. Didn’t amount to much later.
• Daddy Long Legs (2012) was eased to be last. Hasn’t done anything else yet.

All together, only 5 UAE Derby winners out of a possible 12 went to the Kentucky Derby, with the best finisher (I’m assuming) being Master of Hounds (5th in 2012) who did not even win the race. Compare this with other prep races that are older and probably make more sense for American dirt horses, and it still doesn’t look terrible.

I think the UAE Derby’s biggest flaw is not attracting your typical Derby types, since most of these horses are from Europe and aren’t interested in shipping that far to try for that race. More questions:

• Seeing as Lines of Battle is an American-bred horse who was raised at Claiborne itself (much like a lot of other champions including Orb!), would the case be any different had he not been bought by Coolmore and shipped off to race overseas instead of here?

• To what extent does the UAE Derby “not” matter? If it was in England or Canada would it be better? If it was a 1 3/16 mile race in the States on dirt? If He’s Had Enough was actually the second coming of I’ll Have Another? I say this because I tend to skip over the names of the races won and concentrate on how well the horse did and try to speculate their next effort. He ran great for a horse off a long layoff. The Illinois Derby is “blah” in its history too but War Emblem won anyway.

• Lines of Battle pressed the [soft] pace, digging in at the end, and still won despite swerving and an arguably bad ride from his jockey.
• Lest we forget, Aidan O’Brien is probably the best active trainer in the world right now and has sent some pretty excellent turf types over to race on dirt before. Is he running from Dawn Approach in the 2000 Guineas? Probably. But I still wouldn’t throw out Lines of Battle FIRST like many people are doing.

Asked by sinningincowboyboots

More like how it is for every other stakes race: the Wednesday before the race. Unless of course I died and went to heaven and am actually wrong about this.

It would have been nice to at least get the post draw done on Monday like the Breeders’ Cup did, but we can’t have nice things… DAAAAGH!

Asked by autobotwhirlybird

Thanks much for the kind words, I’m glad you’re enjoying them so far and I hope you find them at least somewhat useful!

And thanks for noting the typo I knew I had but forgot to fix! Rosario was 5th with Creative Cause actually (I thought he was 3rd or 4th too, but then remembered Dullahan and Went the Day Well).

Asked by thoughtsonracinglifeandmore

Goldencents is overrated.

Asked by thoughtsonracinglifeandmore

Tumblr’s best handicapper would be glad to bestow upon you my great wisdom.

Holiday Kitten looks to be the one to beat here with a lot of early speed, and with a need-the-lead type like Shumoos up there, we’re practically guaranteed to get a blazing pace. Holiday Kitten looks strong, but because of that scenario, a closer could sneak up. I’ve liked Drama Drama before (and at long odds too, she is again 20-1 morning line here), who closed in to be 3rd two starts back in the 7-furlong Raven Run (III) at Keeneland. I don’t think Shmoos is going to last, but I would keep Holiday Kitten and Drama Drama both in the top 3. I’ll also mention Byrama [GB] on the rail; she has a decent poly record and is usually good for the top 3.

Top Picks in Order:

1) Drama Drama

2) Holiday Kitten

3) Byrama [GB]

Asked by Anonymous

Interesting question! I’m going to have to think as I type…

Hear the Ghost - Ideal routing pedigree, good conditioning, mentality is very calm and easygoing without a demonstrated need to be placed in a specific spot. Closed well to win the San Felipe (II) which set up perfectly for him and looked ready to improve further.

Flashback - I saw this horse and thought confidence and speed were accurate descriptive words. He likes to be forwardly placed and can be moved around without quitting. I think his knee chip stopped him from really chasing Goldencents after a slower-than-anticipated break from the rail impeded his trip. He runs ears forward, which is good to see.

Goldencents - As long as he is placed well enough, he can probably win many races from here on out. Questionable distance pedigree, I don’t know how far he’s willing to go, and from the San Felipe we learned he wants the lead and be left alone on it. Doug O’Neill is a great conditioner, but I still ask questions about how good this horse really is. Can he win without special treatment? He won’t get any in the Derby.

Without knowing how good Ghost was going to get hot off the San Felipe, at the moment I would Flashback’s ability slightly over Ghost then Goldencents the last of the three. This is all assuming Flashback was hindered by his knee chip, which still got him clear of the rest of the field by over 8 lengths and missed the win by just over 1 length.

Asked by life-in-dreaming

I’m still in “mulling over” mode, but my first impressions of what he’ll do next are:

• I’d be willing to wager he won’t go 10 furlongs. I classify that distance as something good horses can do, but only pretty special horses can win.
• He’ll be advantaged running on the front end, but there are going to be a lot of horses who want a just-off-the-pace spot.
• I anticipated a stronger Wood performance; I thought he would win by 2 or 3 and should have with those soft fractions. If Normandy Invasion hadn’t gotten caught on the inside he probably would have won. Factoring all these together, Verrazano had no excuse.
• I said he would probably bounce heading into the Tampa Bay Derby, but he did much better than expected despite struggling with the surface. You might be able to say the Wood was a “bounce,” but from there where do we go? Do Pletcher horses recover from a bounce heading into the Derby?
• I like to see Derby horses be truly tested before they head into the big race. Verrazano wasn’t tested at all. I don’t know what his mindset looks like when he’s in a pickle.
• I anticipate Verrazano will keep Johnny V, which is always a big plus to me.
• I anticipate his race day odds to be in the neighborhood of 7-2. Not worth it, too vulnerable a favorite.
• In an earlier post, I compared him to Dialed In physically. At 9 furlongs that statement still appears to be true, and after DI’s Florida win I abandoned all hope of him going 10F victoriously.

I hope to continue my current thoughts on Derby hopefuls in a new post, but you get the jist of what Verrazano means to me. If he can prove me wrong like Goldencents has been doing, then dandy. I’m just not counting on it!