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I participated in a web chat on Preakness Saturday hosted by Emily. It was a fun, hope-filled type of experience, and unless I’m daft, I don’t think anyone picked someone other than Orb as the likely eventual winner. Now that the race is over and done with, I can “unload”:

• I knew Itsmyluckyday was going to have a big shot to bounce back and win after that workout, but Pimlico played toward early speed all day which gave Oxbow the big advantage in the end to keep on going. Yes, I admitted in the Derby Dozen that after running a race every single month, Oxbow was likely off his top form. I still maintain that belief, but with his pedigree and favorable placement in the field, he managed to hang in there strong enough to win. Great job to all those who had him on top.
• Orb didn’t look likely to win from the word go. He was moved into relaxing position far back early, which looked fine given the solid pace of just under :24 for the opening quarter. But he didn’t move up. Then horses began cutting around him to the inside. I was honestly shocked to see he finished 4th with that dull a performance. Maybe it was the dead rail zone, maybe not.
• Now that Orb has lost the 2nd jewel, we can start looking forward to a free-for-all in the Belmont. We actually have an amazing lineup this year for the race by the sounds of it, and both Orb and Oxbow are listed as possibles. I don’t like either one to win the race, and I’m probably going to wind up favoring a fresh horse. But alas, that race is 3 weeks away so we shall see…

Less than two weeks ago, Shug McGaughey’s Orb logged a decisive win in the Kentucky Derby, splashing home in the mud to outkick them all as clearly the best horse in the field. While I am still weighing whether or not he can win the elusive Triple Crown, confidence is high that he can win the Preakness in equally easy fashion. However, now that everyone is acutely aware of the horse to beat, Orb does have a few horses to beat, and his main challenge looks to be none other than Itsmyluckyday.

Both “Lucky” and Orb found themselves in my top 5 Derby list, and while Orb proved superior that day, Lucky has been showing signs he’s back to fighting trim and looks dangerous on a fast, dry track.

The son of Lawyer Ron logged an impressive final breeze at Monmouth this week, sweeping over the New Jersey track easy-peasy to register 4 panels in :47 1/5, out 5 furlongs in :59 3/5 with regular Elvis Trujillo aboard for the work, which was held between the 3rd and 4th races. The colt spun his first quarter in a rapid :23.8 and the second in :23.4 seconds. All in hand. Did I mention that the titanic John Velazquez has been booked to ride Lucky on Saturday?

Meanwhile, Orb finished up his short vacation at Belmont Park with a final and promising work before boarding the Sallie horse van to Pimlico. The Derby winner looked every bit as relaxed and sharp as he was in his final work before the Kentucky Derby, logging a :47 1/5 half mile (just a hair fractionally slower than Lucky) and was out in :59.54 without urging. Orb’s first quarter was clocked in :24.47, and really hit his best, most reaching stride late visually. The clock agreed with the second quarter clocked in :22.71.

Orb looks the picture of perfection right now, but may be up to a new challenge in the form of shipping to a new track again and facing horses who may fare better now that mud is out of the picture. It will be tough to outgame him and outfoot him, but a few horses in this field might be able to do it with the right trip. Itsmyluckyday is especially threatening as a pace stalker with a big stretch run lying in wait.

At the moment, these are my exacta horses, with new shooter and Illinois Derby winner Departing and 5th place horse Mylute bringing up the tail of the second jewel. Departing and Mylute both had easy maintenance works to prepare for the race. I think highly of both, especially as improving horses, but do not put them in the winning spot. As for “overrated” entries, Will Take Charge takes the cake.

I made a checklist— as I often do for the big classic-type races— listing all the qualities the Derby winner ought to have: 10 furlong ability (as judged by me), pedigree, in peak form, decent post position, how their last workout was, how they like dirt, class level, and mental tenacity. I knew it was a crappy field when I saw that only 2 horses had straight check marks: Revolutionary (3rd) and Orb (1st). Orb certainly deserved the win today, which he would have gotten whether or not Palace Malice decided to floor it from the start. On to the Preakness!

Also, I was kind of giddy to see Golden Soul get right up there, and I am quite happy with the top 7 or 8 finishers who all ran pretty well like I thought. I just had no idea what to expect in the mud when it came to the finish order. I made no money, but hey, I’m happy about being right about Verrazano and Goldencents! At least in the mud…

As all horse handicappers know, expecting big performances back-to-back is dreamer’s logic. With that said, I will be taking a short break from racing and handicapping starting today. Working, driving 3 hours a day 4 days a week, 5 classes during crunch time, filming productions, readying side projects for pre-production, and pouring over horse racing has worn me down a little and I think it’s time for a little hiatus.

I expect I should be back to normal in time for Preakness week. In the meantime, congrats to Orb! I plan to sleep on it before I decide whether or not I feel like Orb can win the Triple Crown this year.

Good afternoon all. I am so so mad at how much it’s been raining over at Churchill Downs so I’m being a butt about not making very many picks. I just am not a gifted slop-capper and more often than not, it yields goofy results making good horses lose for whatever reason. Oaks picks that I posted on Twitter, but was not able to post on here yesterday:

Yeah, would have been magical if she won, but what a crappy race it was anyway. I knew someone was apt to catch Beholder. Good going to Princess of Sylmar.

Now on to my personal Derby “picks”. I have no idea how well most of these stand up to a muddy going, so I won’t be too harsh on myself should they all fail miserably:

5) Orb - It’s really been hard to knock a horse that keeps getting better, had flourishing works at Churchill all week, and seems naturally fit for the job of winning a 10-furlong race. Orb checks off all the boxes so to speak and other than a post position that might squeeze him in early on, I’m not too worried about him doing well, and he may even win. Acceptable odds: 4-1

4) Frac Daddy - Although his preparation trail has been riddled with misses and poor trips, Frac Daddy made a big run last out in the Arkansas Derby to be a late second to Overanalyze. Initially, if someone were to tell me this I would be unimpressed because well, I don’t like Overanalyze in the slightest bit, BUT consider the fact Frac Daddy has been looking amazing working at Churchill AND he has a win there at the track ALONG WITH a close runner-up last year in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes to Uncaptured. His three-year-old year has been largely problematic, but I think we can blame the trip notes on that. With a clear outer post that will keep him out of trouble, this is the number 1 longshot on my list that I think has a shot of running big. He has plenty of speed in his pedigree that has been built to last with front-running Classic winner Skip Away as his damsire, and trainer Ken McPeek has a gift for live longshots. Acceptable odds: 25-1

3) Java’s War - I’ve learned over the years to not take the “little horse” lightly, as in 2010 when I disregarded the mighty mouse known as Santiva who ran full-hearted to a pretty good finish in the Derby. And that was just one mention out of a pile of mentionworthy pint-sized ponies. Java’s War is compact, but beautifully muscled out as I noted back in the Tampa Bay Derby (II), which was his first start back in months as he roared to make a late run at Verrazano before winning the Blue Grass (I). Whether or not turf is his best surface, Java still runs beautifully and Blue Grass runners have a history of doing well in the Derby (hey even Dullahan mustered a 3rd!). His 3rd start back should be even better and I ain’t afraid of no outer post! Charles Fipke also has a respectable breeding program (and yes, I do like Golden Soul too). Acceptable odds: 15-1

2) Itsmyluckyday -Horses who run close to the pace have had a documented note of success in the Kentucky Derby, many of them coming from the Florida preps. Add to this fact that horses that train at Calder Race Course do pretty well for themselves at Churchill Downs, and “Lucky” has been training there up to this race. He was a sullied runner-up to Orb in the Florida Derby, yes, but he was coming up off a 2 month layoff, which is pretty substantial. Lucky has been putting up impressive numbers and races since his two-year-old year and he looks to have gotten better as a three-year-old with the pedigree possibility of running even further.

The fact that I have included a Lawyer Ron son in my top 5 says a lot. Itsmyluckyday will be at big odds compared to how big his ability is. Eddie Plesa seemed pleasant and optimistic about his colt’s chances, and he’s got the speed and mental stability I like to see in a horse going forward into a race of this magnitude. Acceptable odds: 10-1

1) Normandy Invasion - Makes the top spot. I just love how huge and gifted this horse is and I think he is only going to get better when he gets 10 furlongs despite some questions about his weight and worth as a G1 dirt horse. Yes, I realize Alysheba was the last horse to win the Derby with just one prior win, but I’m willing to buck that “history handicap” because Normmy ran some really great losing efforts at 9 furlongs and has been warming up beautifully for his 3rd start back. Chad Brown is a trainer I really enjoy following who has a knack for getting distance out of his horses, and Javier Castellano is one of my top jockeys. It’s been 5 years since Eight Belles fell down for Fox Hill Farms and one year since Javier regrettably sacrificed the ride on Union Rags. He’s dodging Pletcher’s stable on the Derby this year for a horse he believes in. Let’s go, Normmy! Acceptable odds: 12-1

If Java’s War, Normandy Invasion, Itsmyluckyday, Orb, Mylute, Palace Malice, or Revolutionary wins the Kentucky Derby / if Rose to Gold, Close Hatches, Pure Fun, Beholder, Midnight Lucky, or Dreaming of Julia wins the Oaks:

If Golden Soul, Oxbow, Will Take Charge, Lines of Battle, Verrazano, Black Onyx, or Frac Daddy wins the Derby / if Unlimited Budget, Princess of Sylmar, Seaneen Girl, or Silsita wins the Oaks:

If Falling Sky, Goldencents, Charming Kitten, Overanalyze, or Giant Finish wins the Derby

When Wise Dan and Point of Entry step out onto the track together:

If anypony gets hurt or Believe You Can and Atigun don’t win or one of my gushy favorites has to scratch:

If my picks go terribly awry:

LOTS OF EMOTIONS ARE ON THE LINE FOR THIS WEEKEND. As you can tell, I don’t despise anyone in the Oaks this year…