May 2013
20 posts
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behindthecounterinasmalltown asked: You have a right to your opinion and anything can happen in any race. I just dont see anyone beating Orb in the next 2. He looks the part physically and has been working out better. Reminds me of how much better I thought (and still think) Animal Kingdom was than the rest of his fields. That said though, it didn't work out for AK. I think Orb is the best horse no matter what post or track...
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nicoledowland asked: I'm not even rooting for Orb to win the triple crown. He's been a firm favourite of mine since the Fountain of Youth. I'm just rooting for him to have a good race and come home to the finish line safe. Win or lose, Orb will still be my favourite American horse, hell even if he didn't win the Kentucky Derby he would be. You just click with some horses like you do boyfriends haha
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The problems I have with "Orb people"
Me: It was a good race and he deserved to win, but don't you think Orb is getting a little too much hype for the Triple Crown? I mean, he still has two more races and by the looks of things, he hasn't a choice post position for the Preakness which will be run on a fast track, then you've got the Belmont which presents its own challenges...
Orb supporters: WTF WE'RE NOT ALLOWED TO WANT A TRIPLE CROWN ALL OF A SUDDEN GODDAMN SORRY FOR GETTING EXCITED OMFG WET BLANKET
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Not Your Granddad's Pimlico Special
Hi again everyone! After a long break, I am excited to get back to “officially” handicapping… I say official because I picked Freedom Child to win the Peter Pan (II) on my Twitter, but it kind of disqualifies me if I didn’t put it on blast. Anyway, as a favor to Reinier and a litmus test to my luck this weekend, how about an overview for today’s historic Pimlico...
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thoughtsonracinglifeandmore asked: The problem with Itsmyluckday is how the trainer has kidgloved him since that big win over Shanghai Bobby. 1:43 for a mile heading into the Kentucky Derby? That wasn't a good sign. Neither was the 4 F work over 50 seconds. The trainer thought he did the right thing...but he probably dulled him a bit.
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Orb's Biggest Threat is Not a "New Shooter"
Less than two weeks ago, Shug McGaughey’s Orb logged a decisive win in the Kentucky Derby, splashing home in the mud to outkick them all as clearly the best horse in the field. While I am still weighing whether or not he can win the elusive Triple Crown, confidence is high that he can win the Preakness in equally easy fashion. However, now that everyone is acutely aware of the horse to...
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Racing Beat: May 11
After a Derby week and recovery time/finals time hiatus, Racing Beat is back to clog up your sluggish Sunday feed!
How cool would it be if Pletcher entered Dreaming of Julia in the Belmont? He commented she wouldn’t be ready for a Preakness run after the Oaks soooo maybe another Rags to Riches attempt? YES PLEASE. (Two-weeks-later-edit: Seems my dreams of Julia is going to happen! Aw...
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Congrats to Orb, Shug, and Joel
I made a checklist— as I often do for the big classic-type races— listing all the qualities the Derby winner ought to have: 10 furlong ability (as judged by me), pedigree, in peak form, decent post position, how their last workout was, how they like dirt, class level, and mental tenacity. I knew it was a crappy field when I saw that only 2 horses had straight check marks: Revolutionary...
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Oaks picks failed, Kentucky Derby picks
Good afternoon all. I am so so mad at how much it’s been raining over at Churchill Downs so I’m being a butt about not making very many picks. I just am not a gifted slop-capper and more often than not, it yields goofy results making good horses lose for whatever reason. Oaks picks that I posted on Twitter, but was not able to post on here yesterday:
Yeah, would have been magical if...
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MY PLANNED REACTIONS FOR THIS WEEKEND
If Java’s War, Normandy Invasion, Itsmyluckyday, Orb, Mylute, Palace Malice, or Revolutionary wins the Kentucky Derby / if Rose to Gold, Close Hatches, Pure Fun, Beholder, Midnight Lucky, or Dreaming of Julia wins the Oaks:
If Golden Soul, Oxbow, Will Take Charge, Lines of Battle, Verrazano, Black Onyx, or Frac Daddy wins the Derby / if Unlimited Budget, Princess of Sylmar, Seaneen Girl,...
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thoughtsonracinglifeandmore asked: I had never heard your voice before. That was interesting. It kind of reminded me when I awkwardly picked names out of a hat for the Belmont on video and just said screw it I'm going with Dullahan.
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Video update
Pickin’ Chicken “Puff” is encoding now, but I may just do a text post for the Kentucky Oaks and then have a video done by tomorrow for the Derby. I have to put together several more pages for my portfolio which is due tomorrow morning, and I don’t think I can smush everything in. I had a shortage of time and banana bread, so Puff has only her Derby picks decided. :(
I wish...
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rememberruffian replied to your chat: My mom aka “the Buttcapper” during the Derby draw
What did she say about Orb? :o
Nothing unfortunately, though I am going to blame the fact that NBC Sports was very partial to whom they showed footage for. They didn’t show anything for a lot of the entries or just a shot of them hanging out in their stall. :/ Blah
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My mom aka "the Buttcapper" during the Derby draw
(Keep in mind she knows next to nothing about any of the horses showing up on the screen. For those who didn't follow the blog last year, she picked quite a few winners on Belmont Day based largely on their butts/pedigrees she knew, including a 20-1 shot)
On Vyjack: Oh he's cute!
On Overanalyze: Nope, I can see it already. Too heavy.
On Goldencents: (overheard his name) Who? I don't know why but I just got a funny feeling about that one (much to my discontent)
On Verrazano: (draws good post) Ooooh yeah! Woo hoo!
On Frac Daddy: Ooh I like him too. He moves really nice and big!
On Revolutionary: Ooh I like him!
On Normandy Invasion: He's cute!
(I'm thinking of sitting her down to either watch replays or show pictures of each horse since she knows too little to be truly biased...)
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Minor camera crisis
aka I didn’t charge my battery after the horse show
Amateurish derp on my part.
I shot some of the footage for my picks videos, but will likely have to do the rest later tonight/tomorrow. IT’S GONNA BE GOLDEN [SOUL] THOUGH!
April 2013
77 posts
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webuiltthepyramids replied to your post: Oaks Octet #6: Midnight Lucky
She’s got post position two…any idea if that’s good for her?
Right next to Beholder in #3? I’m going to say no right now… but I will try very hard to get my Oaks video done and ready to post tomorrow to express my rainbow of emotions about Friday’s race :)
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Oaks Octet #8: Pure Fun
(Pure Prize x Chelsea Green, Key to the Mint)
Trainer: Ken McPeek (Curlin, Harlan’s Holiday, Take Charge Lady)
Jockey: Rosie Napravnik (1st on Believe You Can last year)
Owned by: Magdalena Racing
Record: 10:3-1-2
Earnings: $353,699
Best speed figures: 88 Beyer, 100 Equibase
Background: Kenny McPeek took a shot in the dark when he shipped Pure Fun out west to play underdog in the...
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Oaks Octet #7: Flashy Gray
(Flashy Bull x Pleasure Cat, by Cat’s Career)
Trainer: Bill Mott (Cigar, To Honor and Serve, Drosselmeyer)
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Owned by: West Point Thoroughbreds
Record: 5:2-3-0
Earnings: $196,100
Best speed figures: 95 Beyer, 99 Equibase
Background: The hype machine can be congratulated for motivating a lot of people to back Flashy Gray as the Oaks favorite earlier in the...
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Oaks Octet #6: Midnight Lucky
(Midnight Lute x Citiview, by Citidancer)
Trainer: Bob Baffert (Plum Pretty, Coil, Silverbulletday)
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano (6th last year on Hard Not To Like)
Owned by: Watson, Karl; Pegram, Michael E.; and Weitman, Paul
Record: 2:2-0-0
Earnings: $153,600
Best speed figures: 94 Beyer, 106 Equibase
Background: The silver bullet from the west, Midnight Lucky fills the shoes her colt...
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Today just about wraps up Derby Dozen and Oaks...
I have plans to shoot the top picks video tomorrow after my class gets out and (hopefully) the post draw will happen so I don’t have to say “if” or “as long as” as often. Then from there I will see about additional posts/videos.
So yes, any questions you’d like to ask, today is a perfect time to send them on in!
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Oaks Octet #5: Unlimited Budget
(Street Sense x Unlimited Pleasure, by Valid Appeal)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Uncle Mo, Rags to Riches, Ashado)
Jockey: Javier Castellano (3rd last year on Grace Hall)
Owned by: Repole Stable
Record: 4:4-0-0
Earnings: $610,200
Best speed figures: 98 Beyer, 101 Equibase
Background: Try as he may, Mike Repole failed to get himself a Derby horse this year (edit: thanks Paige for noticing...
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Oaks Octet #4: Beholder
(Henny Hughes x Leslie’s Lady, by Tricky Creek)
Trainer: Richard Mandella (Action This Day, Johar, Pleasantly Perfect)
Jockey: Garrett Gomez (4th last year on Summer Applause)
Owned by: Spendthrift Farm
Record: 8:5-2-0
Earnings: $1,575,000
Best speed figures: 108 Beyer, 116 Equibase
Background: Just when it looked like Executiveprivilege was going to easy hail the Eclipse trophy...
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Oaks Octet #3: Rose to Gold
(Friends Lake x Saucy, by Tabasco Cat)
Trainer: Sal Santoro (Musical Flair, Topazio)
Jockey: Calvin Borel
Owned by: Amaya, Kathleen and Centofanti, Raffaele
Record: 7:5-1-0
Earnings: $717,889
Best speed figures: 97 Beyer, 103 Equibase
Background: The Cinderella story of the Kentucky Oaks, Rose to Gold was purchased for a scant $1,400 at auction before earning many times that value price...
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Derby Dozen #12: Oxbow
(Awesome Again x Tizamazing, by Cee’s Tizzy)
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas (Optimizer, Gulch, Charismatic)
Jockey: Gary Stevens (First Derby since 2003 6th place with Buddy Gil)
Owned by: Calumet Farm
Record: 9:2-1-1
Earnings: $383,500
Best speed figures: 95 Beyer, 110 Equibase
Background: A member of my watch list since his CashCall (I) race, Oxbow lit up the board and hopes for a...
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thoughtsonracinglifeandmore asked: Even when the UAE Derby was on dirt, the winners never did much over here. I don't have the exact records of each winner, but obviously none of them returned to win even back then. I believe knocking Lines of Battle for the UAE Derby is good logic, beyond reasons of synthetic surface.
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Derby Dozen #11: Palace Malice
(Curlin x Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Rags to Riches, Super Saver, Uncle Mo)
Jockey: Mike Smith (2nd last year on Bodemeister)
Owned by: Dogwood Stable
Record: 6:1-3-1
Earnings: $271,135
Best speed figures: 93 Beyer, 100 Equibase
Background: How many horses does the Toddster have? Quite a few this year, for sure, but it was a hard sell that one of the first...
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rememberruffian replied to your post: Derby Dozen #10: Lines of Battle
Andover Way is the dam of Dynaformer as well, known for his 25 G1SW and 129 SWs. This horse is definitely one to watch out for, regardless of his lack of dirt experience. This colt and Vyjack are the ones who scare me the most.
Good eye Paige! I have edited that into Lines of Battle’s post. Again, it kind of...
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Derby Dozen #10: Lines of Battle
(War Front x Black Speck, by Arch)
Trainer: Aidan P. O’Brien (Camelot, St. Nicholas Abbey, Giant’s Causeway)
Jockey: Ryan Moore (This is his first Derby race)
Owned by: Joseph Allen, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith
Record: 6:3-1-0
Earnings: $1,276,204
Best speed figures: Unknown top Equibase beyond his 92 in a troubled Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (I)...
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Oaks Octet #2: Dreaming of Julia
(A.P. Indy x Dream Rush, by Wild Rush)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Rags to Riches, Uncle Mo, Ashado)
Jockey: John Velazquez (2nd last year on Broadway’s Alibi)
Owned by: Stonestreet Stables
Record: 6:4-1-1
Earnings: $767,000
Best speed figures: 114 Beyer, 116 Equibase
Background: A classy juvenile filly turned possible-Oaks favorite, Dreaming of Julia is the latest horse named after a...
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Oaks Octet #1: Close Hatches
(First Defence x Rising Tornado, by Storm Cat)
Trainer: Bill Mott (Cigar, To Honor and Serve, Drosselmeyer)
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Owned by: Juddmonte Farms
Record: 3:3-0-0
Earnings: $201,300
Best speed figures: 88 Beyer, 103 Equibase
Background: One of the more recent hype fillies for the Oaks came out of seemingly nowhere after racing lightly (and successfully) leading up to her dynamite...
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Derby Dozen #9: Itsmyluckyday
(Lawyer Ron x Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court)
Trainer: Eddie Plesa Jr (Gottcha Gold, Hey Byrn, Successful Song)
Jockey: Elvis Trujillo (This is his first Derby race)
Owned by: Trilogy Stable & Laurie Plesa
Record: 10:5-2-1
Earnings: $625,600
Best speed figures: 104 Beyer, 109 Equibase
Background: The plain bay colt who came out of seemingly nowhere in the deep Florida preps,...
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Derby Dozen #8: Mylute
(Midnight Lute x Stage Stop, by Valid Expectations)
Trainer: Thomas Amoss (Backtalk, Heritage Of Gold, Royal Spy)
Jockey: Rosie Napravnik (Did not race in last year’s Derby)
Owned by: GoldMark Farm LLC & Whisper Hill Farm
Record: 9:2-3-2
Earnings: $417,695
Best speed figures: 93 Beyer, 111 Equibase
Background: The winner of my secret and imaginary “Most Beautiful Derby...
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Derby Dozen #7: Java's War
(War Pass x Java, by Rainbow Quest [GB])
Trainer: Ken McPeek (Sarava, Harlan’s Holiday, Curlin)
Jockey: Julien Leparoux (7th last year on Union Rags)
Owned by: Charles Fipke
Record: 7:3-1-1
Earnings: $672,091
Best speed figures: 89 Beyer, 103 Equibase
Background: The second of the two very promising War Pass colts in the Kentucky Derby, Java’s War commanded attention as one...
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Derby Dozen #6: Goldencents
(Into Mischief x Goldenworks, by Banker’s Gold)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill (I’ll Have Another, Lava Man, Thor’s Echo)
Jockey: Kevin Krigger (This will be his first Derby ride)
Owned by: W.C. Racing, Kenney, Dave; and RAP Racing
Record: 6:4-1-0
Earnings: $1,250,000
Best speed figures: 105 Beyer, 111 Equibase
Background: Just when it looked like Team O’Neill was...
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Derby Dozen #5: Revolutionary
(War Pass x Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher (Super Saver, Uncle Mo, Rags to Riches)
Jockey: Calvin Borel (19th last year on Take Charge Indy)
Owned by: WinStar Farms
Record: 6:3-1-2
Earnings: $788,500
Best speed figures: 93 Beyer, 114 Equibase (achieved as a two-year-old)
Background: The Todd Pletcher-WinStar angle has been strong, achieving strong results on the...
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sinningincowboyboots asked: Hey Dawna! I was curious if you knew when they are drawing for post position? Surely it's gotta be like this weekend right?
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As we get closer to Derby / Oaks week
What is already being planned:
Derby Dozen profiles (top 12)
Oaks Octet profiles (top 8)
My own personal top 5 - video planned
“Pickin’ Chickens” - my chickens will pick the Derby and Oaks trifecta on video
Possibly other handicapping means… i.e. reverse analysis, other things I’ve been wanting to try
And I’ve been a nincompoop with all my college work,...
